FanDuel MLB: Wednesday Breakdown

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Published on April 10, 2019

PITCHING

The chalk pitcher for cash games Wednesday night will be Noah Syndergaard ($10,100) as he takes on the Twins at home. He comes into the game with two good, not great, starts on his ledger, finishing with 27 and 34 fantasy points. The Twins have seen little of him and those situations typically favor the pitcher. Since the start of the 2017 season, Syndergaard has been much better at home (2.65 ERA, 9.6 K/9IP) than on the road (3.65 ERA, 8.9K/9IP) as well. In cash games, look to spend up here and save some money on the hitters.

James Paxton ($9,800) is the second-highest priced pitcher of the night, but he comes with some risk. He's finished with 29 and 37 fantasy points in his first two starts, allowing four earned runs in Baltimore to take the Quality Start out of the picture. Paxton's strikeout ability puts him firmly on the radar in GPPs, but realize the Astros in Houston are one of the toughest lineups in baseball.

A trendy sleeper coming into the season, Nick Pivetta ($8,000) has yet to make good on those aspirations, lasting only 4.2 and five innings in his first two starts. This might be a good spot to use him given the modest price and home matchup with the Nationals. Washington is striking out 26.6 percent of the time against right-handed pitching this season, and Pivetta had an elite 30.1 percent strikeout rate at home last season.

The dark horse for this slate is likely Jake Odorizzi ($7,400), who has had two completely opposite performances his first two times on the mound. He pitched brilliantly the first time out, finishing with 11 strikeouts on his way to a 52 fantasy point outing. In his second start against the Phillies he couldn't get out of the first inning, allowing four earned runs in 0.2 innings and ending up with -7 fantasy points. That outing and the road matchup with Syndergaard will keep his ownership extremely low even in GPPs, making him a good target in the bigger tournaments. The Mets strike out the fifth-most in baseball (27.8 percent) against right-handed pitching, making this a potentially plus matchup for Odorizzi.

KEY VALUES/CHALK

Looking at the outfield, it seems like Jorge Soler ($3,500) doesn't get as much fanfare in the DFS community as he should when facing a left-handed pitcher. He'll get that matchup Wednesday night with the Mariners sending Yusei Kikuchi to the mound. Soler should occupy his usual cleanup spot, and his .441 wOBA split against southpaws last season was better than Javier Baez or Paul Goldschmidt.

Kyle Schwarber ($3,700) will likely be another overlooked option worth considering after posting a .353 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season. Jordan Lyles was up and down last season as a starter and has a tough matchup facing the Cubs in Wrigley.

Shortstop seems like a good place to punt, putting Andrelton Simmons ($2,500) on the radar in both cash and GPPs. He's been hitting in the cleanup spot for the Angels and a matchup against Brandon Woodruff is nothing to shy away from. Simmons has reached base safely in four straight starts and has two stolen bases and a home run over his last three games.

At third base Eduardo Escobar ($2,700) appears to be in a good spot taking on Lance Lynn in Arizona. Last season Escobar had a .351 wOBA against right-handed pitching, while Lynn surrendered a .366 wOBA to left-handed hitters last season.

There doesn't appear to be a lot of good values at second base, but Mike Moustakas ($3,100) isn't going to break the bank and is a good value given the position. Moustakas had a .337 wOBA last season against righties, a very good mark considering the position. Felix Pena allowed a .338 wOBA to left-handed hitters in 2018, making this a good matchup for Moose.

At the 1B/C spot, a sneaky play for GPPs is Yuli Gurriel ($2,500). The matchup with Paxton is less than ideal which will keep his ownership at a very low level. Many of the Astros mash left-handed pitching so it seems Gurriel, who had a .382 wOBA against lefties last season, goes under the radar when Houston faces a southpaw.

STACKS

Houston Astros vs. Paxton: This will be one night when a Astros stack has low ownership due to the matchup. Using Carlos Correa ($3,300), George Springer ($4,100), Jose Altuve ($3,900) and Gurriel (or another starter) will be a high upside stack that could be ignored by most.

Chicago Cubs vs. Lyles: The Cubs should be able to get after the right-handed Lyles and using the aforementioned Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo ($4,200), Jason Heyward ($3,500), Kris Bryant (yes, he can hit right-handed pitching too, $3,900) and either Ben Zobrist ($2,900) or Javier Baez ($4,400) could be the winner in a big GPP.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Jeremy Hellickson: Hellickson has the lowest salary of any pitcher on the slate, and for good reason. He allowed two runs over two innings in his only other appearance this season to these same Phillies and has given up a .321 wOBA to left-handed hitters over his career. Bryce Harper ($4,700) has killed his old team so far and Rhys Hoskins ($4,900) has taken advantage of hitting behind Harper, seeing more hittable pitches. Mix in Andrew McCutchen ($3,700), Maikel Franco ($3,500) or J.T. Realmuto ($3,300) and that might be the winning formula for a big tournament.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Kevin Payne plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: Fanduel: kevinccp, Draft Kings: kevinccp, Yahoo: kevinccp.