This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Chris Sale is pitching tonight, but you can't use him. The Red Sox are bringing him back as an "opener" for a two-inning start against the Blue Jays, with the plan of progressively building him back up to a regular starter's workload during the final weeks of September.
September baseball in general creates a lot of strange wrinkles -- players getting unexpected rest, specialists like Terrance Gore emerge to pinch-run for guys like Willson Contreras, potentially cost the latter one more late-inning plate appearance, and eliminating the possibility of that extra run scored.
I'm making a concerted effort to indicate the type of contest I prefer to use players in -- cash (50/50) or tournaments (GPPs) -- which is generally an exercise in estimating ownership rates (or "finding the chalk") and making sure to have enough variation around the highly-coveted top value plays to have a dangerous lineup.
Remember, a strong cash-game play isn't necessarily a "bad" tournament play, but too many "chalky" players can create a limiting factor in big-field tournaments.
Your constructive feedback is appreciated, and always welcomed.
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Pitcher
Preferred Cash Play: Miles Mikolas, STL vs. PIT ($7,100)
Also Consider: Mike Foltynewicz, ATL at SF ($10,200), Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD at CIN ($9,000) **Earlier slate only**
Preferred Tournament Play: Jacob deGrom, NYM vs. MIA ($11,800) *Check Forecast*
Also Consider: Zack Greinke, ARI at COL ($9,400), Mike Fiers, OAK at BAL ($7,600)
Rain delays have likely cost deGrom one start between now and the end of the season. If the parade of postponements comes to a halt Tuesday, paying up for deGom -- especially in tournaments is a preferred strategy of mine. It will likely require lighter exposure to the D-backs-Rockies matchup in Colorado, but with Zack Greinke taking the ball for Arizona, that becomes an easier plan to follow. deGrom has been the best pitcher in the National League this season, and while he may miss out on the Cy Young award for things out of his control (run support, bullpen help), he's been delivering value on a near-nightly basis despite elevated prices. In cash games, there is nothing wrong with deGrom, but the limited exposure to Arizona bats against Antonio Senzatela might be enough to simply pay down for Miles Mikolas instead.
Mikolas has been getting knocked around in recent weeks, with only one good start in his last five, and two starts in which he's been tagged for 12 hits. The Cardinals are trending toward must-win situations on a nightly basis, and with a home matchup against Pittsburgh, they're a -145 favorite on the moneyline Tuesday. If Mikolas can provide a quality start and a win, and check in close to 40 points at his low price, he'll be good enough in cash games to open up several combos of cash-game friendly bats.
Mike Fiers might look like a cash play as a big favorite (-195) against a bad team (the Orioles), but he's on the road, and Fiers' track record highlights the increased variance he brings to the mound on a nightly basis. While he's topped 40 FanDuel points in four of his last five starts (including a 61-point gem against Texas), he's failed to reach 10 in two of his last seven starts. I'm more comfortable with him in tournaments, but this slate might be quirky enough to steer you toward using him as a cash-game alternative to Mikolas.
There are three other pitchers that are interesting for a few different reasons…
Greinke in Coors should be low-owned, and at $9,400, he doesn't have to be elite to make value. As much as the Rockies have struggled against right-handed pitching through 2018, throwing any pitcher in Coors Field brings the usual amount of increased risk.
Folty draws the league's worst offense over the last 30 days with a road trip to face the Giants. The five-digit price might deter some from paying up for him, which could leave him with a reasonable ownership rate despite the layup of a matchup. There is plenty to like here, as Foltynewicz has been regularly pitching deep into his starts, while missing plenty of bats. He'll enter Tuesday's start with a 1.91 ERA and 0.85 WHIP over his last five starts (34:9 K:BB, 33 IP, four quality starts).
If you're playing an earlier slate, the Reds/Dodgers matchup gets underway at 6:40p ET on Tuesday night. Ryu kept things together in his last start despite allowing 10 hits over six innings as just one of the five runs he surrendered was earned. In five turns since being activated from the DL, Ryu has a 31:2 K:BB over 28.2 innings, with a 2.20 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Oddly enough, all of those turns took place at home, but he'll face a Cincinnati club on the road Tuesday that has been slightly above average against left-handed pitching (106 wRC+) in 2018. On a night where overwhelming favorites are more difficult to come by, Ryu and the Dodgers are -180 on Tuesday.
Catcher/First Base
Ji-Man Choi, TAM vs. CLE ($3,200) -- Choi homered for the second time in three games (he was off Sunday) with a walk-off blast against Cleveland in the series opener Monday night. It's fair to assume that he'll get the nod against rookie Shane Bieber in Game 2, and while Bieber has looked like a capable big-league starter in his rookie campaign, he's shown a propensity to struggle against left-handed hitters, posting the second-worst wOBA against lefty bats on Tuesday's slate (.403). Choi has been getting semi-regular playing time in Tampa Bay, and in limited chances over the past two seasons, he's put together than impressive .292/.366/.563 line against right-handed pitching, and now he's auditioning for a spot on the Rays' 25-man roster for 2019 in the final weeks of the season.
Second Base
Robinson Cano, SEA vs. SD ($3,500) -- The Padres are starting Bryan Mitchell on Tuesday, and maybe it's just that I want some revenge for trotting him out as a starter in season-long leagues back in April when I believed he might be a sleeper. Nevertheless, Mitchell's low strikeout rate (14.4% vs. LHH since 2016) makes him an easy target, and while his extreme groundball tendencies can reduce the home-run output, he's still one of the worst starters on the board Tuesday with a .356 wOBA allowed to left-handed hitters since the start of 2016.
Third Base
Eduardo Escobar, ARI at COL ($3,700) -- If I'm limited to one hitter in the Arizona lineup Tuesday night in Colorado, Escobar is my preferred option. He snapped out of a skid with a 3-for-3 effort in Monday's series opener, and as a switch-hitter, he's less susceptible to getting taken out of the game in the late innings due to bullpen matchups with expanded benches. Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela is among the pleasant surprises in Colorado this season, but he's carried a low strikeout rate (16.3%) against left-handed hitters since the start of 2016, a potential recipe for disaster in his home park.
As cheap GPP punts (or utility plays) go, Renato Nunez ($2,300) gets a potential homer-friendly revenge game matchup against Mike Fiers and the A's at Camden Yards. Also, if you're not paying up for Cano, but want to take a cheap swipe at Bryan Mitchell, Kyle Seager (I don't know what's wrong with him) is only $2,700.
Shortstop
Orlando Arcia/Hernan Perez, MIL at CHC ($2,000/$2,500) -- Look to save up at shortstop if you're not paying for a high-end option or Colorado exposure Tuesday. The Brewers have Jhoulys Chacin on the mound, which likely puts Arcia in the starting lineup at shortstop with Jonathan Schoop at the keystone and Mike Moustakas at third base. Perez could find his way into the mix, however, if the Brewers prefer him as a righty-lefty matchup play to Moustakas against Jose Quintana. The extremely low prices make the Brewers' shortstop options playable in cash games, but ideally, they can be deployed as a cheap piece of tournament lineups.
For those who have the cash, Andrelton Simmons, Jean Segura and Xander Bogaerts are all strong plays under $4,000 on Tuesday night.
Outfield
Kole Calhoun, LAA vs. TEX, ($3,300) -- The Rangers are starting Adrian Sampson on Tuesday, and while he was capably getting hitters out in the PCL for most of this season, he was doing it with a very low strikeout rate, which makes his chances of finding success against big-league hitters slim. Calhoun has been a completely different player since his time on the DL during the first half of the season. Since returning to the Angels on June 18, Calhoun is hitting .276/.359/.537 with 17 homers, 45 RBI and 52 runs scored over 298 plate appearances (142 wRC+). He's hitting like a $4K+ player without the price hike.
Jay Bruce, NYM vs. MIA, ($2,500) -- Injuries have limited Bruce to 76 games this season, and within the those 76 games, he may have been playing through a significant injury for a large portion of them. He's looked more like the projected version in recent weeks, however, carrying a .277/.358/.532 line with three homers and six RBI since returning from the disabled list in late August. Marlins starter Jose Urena has shown signs of improving his effectiveness against left-handed hitters this season, but his 12.6% K% against lefties since the start of 2016 and 1.36 HR/9 allowed during that span is enough to take the chance on Bruce at this price, weather permitting of course, Tuesday night.
Hunter Renfroe, SD at SEA ($3,400) -- Renfroe draws Marco Gonzales and the Mariners at Safeco Field, and while he's shown improvement against righties this season en route to another 20-plus homer campaign with fewer than 400 plate appearances, Renfroe's pre-2018 splits against lefties frequently make him an interesting power play against southpaws. Gonzales' first start back from a DL stint due to a neck injury adds to the appeal, as he may be more susceptible to damage as he shakes off the rust.
(Again, only if you're playing an earlier slate) Joc Pederson, LAD at CIN, ($2,000) -- Pederson should be back in the lineup with the Dodgers face righty Luis Castillo in Cincinnati on Tuesday night. He's not a lock to get the start, but when he's played since mid-August, Pederson has generally been leaned on as the Dodgers' leadoff hitter. Castillo, meanwhile, has been struggling to keep the ball in the park recently with seven homers allowed in his last five starts and surprisingly high 27 allowed over 148.1 innings this season.
