This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
This slate is one of the more balanced ones I've written up on a Tuesday or Friday this season, with 5-6 pitchers to strongly consider, a Colorado home series, and a handful of other teams positioned to put up plenty of runs with over/unders of 9.0 or more in the WAS/STL, ATL/BOS, TEX/LAA, MIL/CHC and COL/SF matchups.
Fortunately, weather doesn't appear to be a major issue in many places, but as always, circle back to check forecasts prior to lineup lock to ensure that is still the case.
I'm making a concerted effort to indicate the type of contest I prefer to use players in -- cash (50/50) or tournaments (GPPs) -- which is generally an exercise in estimating ownership rates (or "finding the chalk") and making sure to have enough variation around the highly-coveted top value plays to have a dangerous lineup.
Remember, a strong cash-game play isn't necessarily a "bad" tournament play, but too many "chalky" players can create a limiting factor in big-field tournaments.
Your constructive feedback is appreciated, and always welcomed.
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Pitcher
Preferred Cash Play: Justin Verlander, HOU vs. MIN ($11,000)
Also Consider: Rich Hill, LAD vs. NYM ($9,200)
Preferred Tournament Play: Mike Clevinger, CLE vs. KC ($9,900)
Also Consider: Verlander, Hill, Robbie Ray, ARI vs. SD ($8,700), Wade LeBlanc, SEA vs. BAL ($6,800)
The Astros are a -320 favorite on the moneyline Tuesday, giving Verlander the highest win probability on the board by far. In these circumstances, he should cost $12K or more, but he looks like the easiest path to a nice result in cash games because he's simply not cost prohibitive. Verlander's second-half ERA (4.36) is more than two runs higher than his first-half mark (2.29), as opposing hitters have hit .280/.311/.526 against him (.354 wOBA) since the Mid-Summer Classic. The damage has come with a spike in homers allowed (2.28 HR/9 in the second half), as he's still striking batters out at an excellent clip (14.1 K/9) and keeping his walk rate among the league leaders (1.7 BB/9). As for the opponent, the Twins have posted a 94 wRC+ and 22.4% K% over the last 30 days, making them a soft enough squad to pick on with a pitcher of Verlander's caliber.
Hill's home matchup comes against a Mets team that has been a dumpster fire more often than not against lefties this season (79 wRC+, 28th in MLB | 24.6% K%, 2nd-highest in MLB). As form goes, Hill has been in the inverse of Verlander, pitching well in the second half with an ERA two runs lower (2.47) than his first-half mark (4.55), almost entirely on the strength of an improved home-run rate during that span. The Dodgers are heavily favored (-250), and the over/under total (8.0) is among the lowest on the board Tuesday, making Hill one of the most highly-projected arms in play.
Clevinger and the Indians are heavily favored like the Dodgers (-250) with a home matchup against Danny Duffy and the Royals on Tuesday. While it seems unlikely to continue through the final month, the Royals have the sixth-highest wRC+ in MLB over the last 30 days (108), with only the A's, Brewers, Dodgers, Red Sox and Rays ranking ahead of them during that span. Clevinger has pitched well throughout 2018, and his second-half numbers include a slight increase in strikeouts (10.1 K/9) and a slightly elevated home-run rate (1.30 HR/9). I can't come up with a good reason to look elsewhere if you want to pay up for Clevinger in this setup, he has the appropriate mix of skills, win probability and matchup to justify the price.
Ray has completed six innings just once is his last 11 starts, and he's failed to complete five in each of his last two turns against the Padres. Maybe he's GPP fool's gold, but a pitcher with his strikeout upside against a team with a propensity to whiff like the Padres should always be on the radar, at least for a second or third tournament lineup. Thanks to a slightly reduced home-run rate, Ray has carried a 4.01 ERA in the second half (down a full run from the first half), but the usual high-risk, high-reward label applies here.
LeBlanc has been one of the biggest pitching surprises of the year, solidifying his role in the Mariners' rotation and keeping strong ratios into the final month of the season. He's far from overpowering, but LeBlanc has held opposing hitters to a .221/.280/.392 line in the second half, replicating his success from the first half (.249/.290/.426). With a righty-heavy lineup, the Orioles present a slightly increased amount of risk for LeBlanc, as he's posted a 12.2% K-BB% against righties (19.0 K%, 6.8% BB%) compared an 18.6% K-BB% against left-handed hitters.
Catcher/First Base
Joey Votto, CIN at PIT ($3,500) -- The move out of Cincinnati for a series hurts Votto's home-run chances a bit, but his price has dropped enough to consider him again in cash-games and tournaments alike against Joe Musgrove and the Pirates. Musgrove's .336 wOBA against lefties since the start of 2016 is the fifth-worst on the slate, so picking spots against him is prudent, especially if you're unable to squeeze Matt Carpenter ($4,200) into your lineup against Erick Fedde and the Nats.
Justin Bour ($2,900) gets a revenge series against his former club in Miami, and a lefty-righty matchup against Trevor Richards at an affordable price if he's given the starting nod.
Second Base
Brian Dozier, LAD vs. NYM ($3,300) -- Jason Vargas is starting for the Mets on Tuesday night, and while he's reeled off a stretch with three straight wins, I'm hardly avoiding him because of that recent surge. Dozier's numbers with the Dodgers are right in line with his pre-trade marks with Minnesota, but he slugged above .600 against lefties in each of the last two seasons, and that's enough for me to take the chance on him a fair price against one of the league's worst starting pitchers.
For those who are done paying the freight for Dozier due to past disappointments, or for those who simply want to save at the position, Ketel Marte ($2,600) has sneaky-good splits against lefties (.288/.371/.505 since the start of 2017), and he'll draw one at home with Padres rookie Joey Lucchesi towing the rubber.
Third Base
Matt Chapman, OAK vs. NYY ($3,600) -- Chapman's tear over the last 30 days includes a .315/.368/.653 line with nine homers, which has helped shape his 2018 breakout to include more than a 100-point jump in his OPS from last season (.891). Chapman draws a righty-lefty matchup against J.A. Happ, who is hardly a gas can, but who is vulnerable enough against righties (1.24 HR/9, .305 wOBA) to use a very good one against him when the price aligns as it does here.
(And yes, I like Justin Turner at $3,700 against Vargas, but I suspect he'll be very chalky in tournaments.)
Shortstop
Javy Baez, CHC at MIL ($4,000) -- Baez and the Cubs are in Milwaukee for a big series with the Brewers, and Wade Miley gets the start for the Brew Crew on Tuesday, opening the door for a big night from the potential NL MVP. No shortstop-eligible player has a better split on Tuesday's slate than Baez's .315/.357/.591 line against lefties since the start of last season. Additionally, the Brewers used Josh Hader for 2.2 innings in Monday's win, taking the best weapon in the Milwaukee bullpen out of the equation Tuesday.
If Jonathan Schoop ($2,700) gets a starting nod against Mike Montgomery, he brings cheap pop to the table against a southpaw with a middling strikeout rate against righties (5.3 K/9, 13.6 K%) and a road matchup in a very hitter-friendly environment.
Outfield
Ryan Braun, MIL vs. CHC ($3,000) -- Braun has taken a big step back this season in terms of his overall production, but he's posted a slightly higher hard-hit rate than Mike Trout in 2018, suggesting that he's been at least somewhat unlucky. Not surprisingly, his xWOBA (.367) is more than 50 points higher than his actual mark (.314). Braun and the Brewers have a home matchup against lefty Mike Montgomery and the Cubs, and Montgomery's limited ability to miss bats, especially against righties, leaves him particularly vulnerable in matchups against Braun.
Tommy Pham, TAM at TOR ($3,400) -- Jays rookie lefty Ryan Borucki has hit a bumpy patch in the home stretch of his 2018 campaign, and Pham has been heating up in a big way, with a .353/.431/.569 line over 13 games since a quick stint on the DL in the first half of August. Since getting a fresh start with the Rays, Pham's output has looked more like his 2017 breakout than his disappointing encore with the Cards earlier this season.
Enrique Hernandez, LOS vs. NYM ($2,000) -- Even if you're steering away from the other Dodgers (i.e. Dozier and Turner) covered in this piece, Hernandez opens up a lot of interesting possibilities elsewhere in your lineup since he's priced at the salary floor. His next home run will give him 20 in a season for the first time in his career, and while he's not mashing southpaws the way he did a year ago, Hernandez is still showing increased home-run output in that split with seven long balls in 162 at-bats against lefties in 2018. Hernandez's low price, assuming he starts, should allow owners to easily use their choice of Charlie Blackmon ($4,500 at home), Mike Trout ($4,900 in Arlington against Mike Minor) or Giancarlo Stanton ($4,800 in Oakland against Liam Hendriks).
