This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
13 games are on the docket Tuesday evening for managers to sift through. The second tier of pitching and below doesn't appear gorgeous, so paying up, especially in cash formats, looks like the initial lean. There are a whopping 10 lefties on the mound too, which you'd think would lead to some positive splits both with pitching and hitting. The former didn't really manifest itself as I went through matchups, however.
Pitching
Yu Darvish, SD at ATL ($11,200): There's plenty to shy away from here, as Darvish has allowed 10 runs in his last two starts spanning nine innings, and following Monday's rainout, there's ambiguity as to whether he actually starts here. He's also $1,200 more than any other arm on the slate, so you're expecting greatness at that salary. The key appeal is Atlanta's strikeout propensity (25.1 percent). 3x value would disappoint, but sadly 4x seems like a stretch given his current form.
Tarik Skubal, DET vs. TEX ($8,200): Skubal is another guy where I like the matchup, but a 4x return doesn't seem probable. He's a strikeout machine, fanning 10.7 per nine, but the Rangers only fan 23.5 percent of the time. Skubal can be inefficient when pitching to miss bats rather than to contact and is vulnerable to the long ball, allowing 1.93 homers per nine while 17.9 percent of his fly balls leave the yard. Texas counters with just a .140 ISO. He's priced up, so maybe 35 FDP doesn't happen, but there certainly is potential here.
Dane Dunning, TEX at DET ($7,600): Two opposing arms get mentioned here, which I think speaks to how little confidence I have in the arms Tuesday (and how bad the Rangers and Tigers offenses can be). Dunning hasn't gone more than five innings in a start since May 20, so he has no inning/quality start upside, but he's fanned 10 across his last nine innings while allowing only three runs in his last three starts. He's coming off five one-hit innings against these same Tigers, who fan 26.7 percent of the time against righties.
Top Targets
Vladimir Guerrero, TOR vs. BOS ($4,500): It's not rocket science to suggest the slate's highest-priced bat, but with surging options like Juan Soto ($4,200) at lower salaries, it's feasible Guerrero goes under-rostered, especially by people paying up for pitching. Ignore his whopping .482 wOBA, 209 wRC+ and .382 ISO against righties at your own peril. Mix in that Red Sox starter Garrett Richards is allowing a .388 wOBA to righties, and it's a match.
Nelson Cruz, MIN at CWS ($3,700): There are a lot of positive splits within the Twins lineup against lefties, but it's difficult to ignore Cruz at the top of the list. He's bringing a .432 wOBA, 177 wRC+, .243 ISO and only a 13.9 percent strikeout rate into this contest. He's also feasted on Dallas Keuchel in his career, going 18-for-55 (.327) with six homers, eight walks and 10 RBI, resulting in a 1.079 OPS.
Value Bats
Trey Mancini, BAL at TB ($3,200): Mancini seems to be coming out of his June funk. While he's only homered twice since June 20, he's hit safely in three straight and eight of nine, all while his salary declines. He still sports a .385 wOBA and .286 ISO against lefties.
Yoan Moncada, CWS vs. MIN ($3,100): Twins' starter Bailey Ober is allowing a .426 wOBA and 1.038 OPS to righties on the road. Moncada counters with a meager .139 ISO, so he may have minimal upside, but his .369 wOBA suggests some stability. He's also warming up, posting at least 9.2 FDP in eight of his last 10 contests.
Stacks to Consider
Rockies vs. Marco Gonzales: Trevor Story ($3,800), C.J. Cron ($3,700), Garrett Hampson ($2,900)
The target here is Gonzales, who is being lit up by righties to the tune of a .447 wOBA, 1.062 OPS, 2.6 HR/9 and a 47.9 percent fly ball rate with 21.1 percent of those leaving the yard. Story lands here as a big name only, as he doesn't have great splits, but he's priced down as a result and a sub-$4k salary in Coors Field feels like a gift. Mix in Hampson's .422 wOBA and 153 wRC+ and we're cooking with gas. Cron goes for a .402 wOBA, 139 wRC+ and .275 ISO, further adding stacking appeal.
Astros vs. Triston McKenzie: Yordan Alvarez ($3,500), Kyle Tucker ($3,500), Michael Brantley ($3,300)
McKenzie is allowing a .372 wOBA to lefties on the road, and the Astros are rich with left-handed bats atop their order. Brantley leads the way with a .412 wOBA, adding a 168 wRC+ but less than stellar .181 ISO. We can get some upside from Tucker and Alvarez however, who go .377/145/.239 and .370/140/.257, respectively.
