This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
A full 15-game slate awaits Tuesday evening.
Pitching Breakdown
Justin Verlander ($12,300) leads a loaded pitching slate against Tampa. His eight-game floor has been 36 FDP, and he's gone for 52 or more FDP six times in that stretch. You're getting what you pay for here -- cash stability and GPP upside.
Walker Buehler ($11,600) follows, and gets a Padres' side that fans 26.5 percent of the time against righties and one that he worked a complete game against four starts ago, fanning 15 en route to 79 FDP. Luis Castillo ($11,000) is also in the 11k tier, squaring off against lowly Miami. He's not in the best form, going for 74 total FDP in his last three starts, but he was worth 55 in an April meeting with the Marlins. Their league-low .284 wOBA against righties should keep Castillo stable.
Lucas Giolito ($10,300) and Patrick Corbin ($10,000) round out the five-figure options. Giolito has a difficult matchup against the Twins, and while we never want to target that lineup, he's fared well against them, allowing seven runs over 19.0 innings while fanning 23. Corbin meanwhile is going to be a very trendy pick against Baltimore. The Nats' offense is on fire, they are huge favorites (-310), and the Os fan 25.6 percent of the time. What's not to like?
The next tier of arms seems to offer some nice bargains with similar upside to the higher-priced options. Mike Soroka ($8,800) has five straight quality starts but hasn't picked up a win due to a lack of run support. The Jays' haven't announced a starter yet, and the Braves could be road-weary, but there's definitely 40-point upside in Soroka if he can get a W. Michael Pineda ($9,200) looks overpriced for the potential return, but he's had a 27-point floor over his last seven outings and has limited the White Sox to seven runs across 20 innings, fanning 17. Yu Darvish ($9,000) merits some GPP consideration, as he's cranked up his strikeout rate of late, fanning eight or more in five straight starts. He's the most volatile in this price range, but will have the lowest ownership as well.
Mike Fiers ($8,000) is 12-3 and will draw some eyes against the Royals, as the A's are decent favorites (-164). The appeal here is strictly on the win potential, as Fiers doesn't miss a lot of bats. I expect Adam Plutko ($7,600) to garner interest in a potentially plus matchup against Detroit, but that feels a bit lazy; he's posted 38 total FDP in two previous meetings with the Tigers, most recently allowing five runs over 5.1 innings. The Indians are only moderate favorites as well at (-138).
Moving way down the list, Drew Smyly ($5,900) may merit consideration if your strategy is to fade arms in favor of big offense. He's provided at least 17 FDP in six straight, which flirts with 3x value given his salary, and has twice topped 40 FDP. The Pirates have been woeful in the second half and have a league-low .280 wOBA against lefties.
Key Chalk/Value
Boston (Rick Porcello) at Colorado (TBD) has a whopping 13.5 run total and needs to be targeted as much as you can afford. Porcello has been hit hard equally by righties and lefties on the road, allowing a .392 and .372 wOBA, respectively. Surprisingly, the bats here aren't priced to the moon, and we can safely use any of the Rockies' core of Nolan Arenado ($4,600), Charlie Blackmon ($4,500) and/or Trevor Story ($4,300), while Yonder Alonso ($3,000) has some power potential if he's in the lineup. In the other dugout, J.D. Martinez ($4,700) is too hot to ignore considering the ballpark factor, while we can adjust favorites between Mookie Betts ($4,600), Rafael Devers ($4,500) and Xander Bogaerts ($4,100) once the Rockies make their pitching plans known.
Nationals bats may be equally as popular as those in Coors Field on Tuesday, as they face Baltimore's Aaron Brooks -- the lowest-priced arm on the docket. He's allowing a .426 wOBA to lefties on the road, which should make Juan Soto ($4,200) the top choice, with Adam Eaton ($3,800) following close behind. It would be wise to not ignore Anthony Rendon ($4,500) and Trea Turner ($4,200), who are both hot, and perhaps we can squeeze a little value from this lineup in Asdrubal Cabrera ($2,900) as another lefty option.
With a few games off the board at submission time, the next-highest total lies with Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, which certainly has me questioning the Smyly recommendation on the mound. Pirates starter Steven Brault hasn't been as bad as his low price suggests, but the Phillies do fare well against lefties. Price-wise, the Phillies are highly stackable, with Bryce Harper ($4,200) leading the way followed by Rhys Hoskins ($3,900), who has a team-best .416 wOBA against southpaws. Jean Segura ($3,200), J.T. Realmuto ($3,600) and Scott Kingery ($3,200) all present well and fit into most budgets.
A potentially big value spot Tuesday could be San Francisco bats against Arizona's Mike Leake, who has been pelted since coming over from Seattle. He's allowing a .410 wOBA and 1.003 OPS to lefties since the All-Star break. Mike Yastrzemski ($3,200) sets up really nicely if his hand allows him to play, while Brandon Belt ($3,200), Alex Dickerson ($3,000) and Brandon Crawford ($2,900) all make for low-risk, high-upside plays.
Stacks
Yankees vs. Yusei Kikuchi (Mariners)
Aaron Judge (OF - $4,300), DJ LeMahieu (1B - $4,200), Gio Urshela (3B - $3,300)
Kikuchi's 5.14 xFIP and .367 wOBA allowed to righties at home is well worth targeting, and we all know the Yankees lineup top to bottom can mash. It's hard to pass on Gleyber Torres ($4,300), who has homered 13 times in August, but the splits suggest there are better options. LeMahieu has a .466 wOBA, 196 wRC+ and .280 ISO against southpaws, while Judge goes .464/195/.311 and had homered in three straight prior to Monday. Urshela gets the nod here for some savings, likely hitting out of the three hole, which gives us the top of the Yanks lineup. His .370 wOBA and .239 ISO work great for the price.
Brewers vs. Miles Mikolas (Cardinals)
Christian Yelich (OF - $4,800), Yasmani Grandal (C - $3,200), Eric Thames (1B - $2,900)
Mikolas has been unlucky on the road, owning a 6.54 ERA against a 2.84 mark at home, but he has a 4.32/4.21 xFIP split. Nonetheless, he's been victimized by lefties all year, allowing a .369 wOBA and 878 OPS as opposed to a .284 wOBA and 681 OPS to same-handed bats. With Mike Moustakas unlikely to play, we can grab three lefties in the Brewers lineup and make it somewhat affordable to fit Yelich in thanks to the the discount we get on Thames, who has double-digit FDP in four of his last six. The splits on Grandal and Thames aren't terrific, so this stack is all about Mikolas and his struggles, as he's also allowed five runs in each of his last three outings.
Athletics vs. Mike Montgomery (Royals)
Matt Chapman (3B - $3,600), Mark Canha (OF - $3,500), Marcus Semien (SS - $3,800)
Following last night's 19-run explosion, the Vegas total in this game moved slightly and is now into double digits. While the A's offense as a whole wasn't scalding prior to that outburst, Semien is, owning a .401 wOBA, 155 wRC+ and .337 ISO in August -- great news considering he has the worst season-long splits against lefties of this trio. Chapman has a .385 wOBA, 145 wRC+ and .339 ISO, while Canha goes .364/131/.253. All three are affordable and can give you some financial flexibility elsewhere.
