This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
A nearly full 14-game slate awaits Tuesday, and there's no shortage of pitching options.
Pitching Breakdown
A likely pitchers' duel headlines here, with Justin Verlander ($11,500) set to square off against Shane Bieber ($10,400). Both offenses are solid to plus, but that may not matter. Verlander has come back from a two-game slump, putting up 43, 58 and 61 FDP in his last three starts, respectively. Bieber has equally a high ceiling, going for 63 or more FDP three times in his last eight, with a floor of 26. The Astros' 18.5 percent K rate may not lend itself to huge scoring potential for the younger hurler, however.
Noah Syndergaard ($10,600) against the White Sox is slotted in between those two, and can't be counted on to pitch given trade rumors. It stands to reason he won't throw if he's being moved, so using him will require some salary flexibility and last-minute adjustments if he's scratched. The matchup is good to great though, with the White Sox ranking 29th with a .298 wOBA while striking out 26.0 percent of the time. Syndergaard has gone seven innings in three straight starts, striking out at least eight in each, and is in his best form of the year. He'll face Reynaldo Lopez ($9,200), who's next up price-wise on this slate. Back in May, no one would have considered this salary possible. He still has a 5.52 ERA and 5.24 xFIP, but has fanned 25 in his last 21.0 frames while allowing just four runs. He's not a preferred choice, but Lopez will absolutely be overlooked, and could provide a solid return for GPPers.
David Price ($8,900) looks like the most trustworthy of the four 8k+ pitchers (Marcus Stroman is still listed at time of submission, but likely isn't starting over Syndergaard for his new team). Price has been worth 33 or more FDP in five of six, and has fanned 35 Rays over 23.0 innings against them this year, allowing 18 hits and a 3.13 ERA.
With so many games carrying double-digit run totals (more on this below), its tough to trust many of the secondary arms. J.A. Happ ($7,000) looks to be in a good spot for a win with the Yankees (-215) favored, but the D'Backs rank third in the league with a .347 wOBA against lefties. Jake Odorizzi ($7,300) is going to be a lazy pick against the Marlins, and while it may work out, he's in terrible form, having allowed three or more runs in six of seven, never lasting more than 5.1 frames. Griffin Canning ($6,700) presents similarly. He gets to face a woeful lineup in the Tigers, but he's allowed 16 runs over his last four starts, spanning just 11.2 innings. Two of those matchups came against bad offenses in Seattle and Baltimore too, so it's hard to trust him here.
Key Chalk/Value
As we did yesterday, we start in Coors Field where the Rockies and Dodgers face off. Colorado sends out lefty Kyle Freeland ($5,800), who has a 9.55 home ERA while allowing a .428 wOBA to righties. That sets A.J. Pollock ($3,900) up as a great value play here, as he carries a .404 wOBA and 155 wRC+ against righties. Justin Turner ($4,200) is absolutely a preferred option as well. The Dodgers appear to be countering with Tony Gonsolin ($5,800), though Julio Urias ($6,700) should get the majority of the innings. That makes it difficult to target matchups, but there shouldn't be a pause when using top bats like Nolan Arenado ($4,300) and Trevor Story ($4,000), who aren't overpriced given their home field advantage.
There are a whopping six other games with double-digit run totals, so this slate isn't short on options. Yankee bats figure to be very trendy against Arizona's Taylor Clarke ($6,100), who has a 6.10 ERA and 5.64 xFIP, is allowing a .383 wOBA to lefties and a .391 wOBA to righties. While usual suspects Aaron Judge ($4,200) and Edwin Encarnacion ($4,300) are obviously in play, Gleyber Torres ($3,500), Luke Voit ($3,600) and Gio Urshela ($3,300) actually have better splits against righties and come cheaper.
San Francisco-Philadelphia looks like a sneaky place for production with Tyler Beede ($7,600) facing off against Drew Smyly ($6,500). Smyly was good in his last start, but still has a 7.69 ERA and 5.95 xFIP. Mike Yastrzemski ($3,300) is the most expensive Giant bat, and conveniently has a team-best .376 wOBA and .250 ISO against lefties. Donovan Solano ($2,500) is very cheap, likely hits leadoff, and has a .364 wOBA against lefties. In the other dugout, outside of the obvious Rhys Hoskins ($4,000) and Bryce Harper ($4,100), J.T. Realmuto ($3,400) offers a cheap buy in and has homered in two straight.
Toronto-Kansas City is another spot that could offer sneaky, cheap production with a total of 10.5 and Mike Montgomery ($5,500) doing battle with Sean Reid-Foley ($5,900). Lourdes Gurriel ($3,700) is the obvious target with a .421 wOBA, 167 wRC+ and .379 ISO against lefties.
Stacks
Braves vs. Erick Fedde (Nationals)
Ronald Acuna (OF - $4,300), Freddie Freeman (1B - $4,100), Brian McCann (C - $2,600)
Injuries have forced the Braves to shuffle their lineup, and if you want to save some, you can look towards the bottom of the order with Ender Inciarte ($2,600), Johan Camargo ($2,200) and Adam Duvall ($2,600) all likely playing. But I'd much prefer to target the top of the order. Fedde has a 5.25 xFIP and is allowing a .357 wOBA to lefties against a .274 wOBA to righties, hence the near automatic look at Freeman and McCann. Acuna is largely matchup proof, and his already high value has been enhanced by 10 stolen bases since July 16.
Rangers vs. Mike Leake (Mariners)
Hunter Pence (OF - $3,600), Shin-Soo Choo (OF - $3,300), Rougned Odor (2B - $2,900)
Leake has been knocked around by the Rangers this season, allowing 19 runs, 30 hits and six homers in 17.0 innings (three starts). He's allowing a .414 wOBA and 1.016 OPS to righties, which makes Pence an obvious anchor. It doesn't hurt that the veteran is 18-of-45 (.400) against Leake in his career. There's some decent BvP numbers throughout the Rangers lineup, which led me to Choo (10-of-30, 1.008 OPS) and Odor (three HRs in 22 ABs, 1.136 OPS). Bats in Globe Life Park are never a bad thing, and the Rangers side surprisingly sets up better against Leake than the Mariners do against Ariel Jurado ($6,400).
Angels vs. Drew VerHagen (Tigers)
Mike Trout (OF - $4,800), Shohei Ohtani (OF - $4,100), David Fletcher (3B - $3,000)
VerHagen hasn't proven he can get major-league hitters out, owning a 14.40 ERA, and while should come down eventually, his 7.69 xFIP suggests any improvement could be marginal. He's allowing a .446 wOBA and 1.077 OPS to lefties and a .504 wOBA and 1.222 OPS to righties, albeit in small sample sizes, showing there may be no wrong answer in the Angels lineup. So long as Fletcher remains atop the order, and in front of Trout and Ohtani, he's a great option to come across and score. Trout speaks for himself and only is faded if you can't afford him. Ohtani is actually priced a little high for my liking, but I'll trust his .262 ISO and .369 wOBA in this spot.
