This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
A full 30-team slate awaits Tuesday evening, weather permitting, as the east coast is very humid and has the potential for pop-up storms.
Pitching Overview
Justin Verlander ($12,000) leads a big-name trio of five-figure arms. The price here is super-high, and while the Reds rank 25th with a .299 wOBA, their 24.2 percent fan rate isn't huge. The floor appears incredibly stable, but Verlander is going to have to go for 40+ FDP to justify this price.
Clayton Kershaw ($10,700) and Jacob deGrom ($10,300) follow at relatively substantial discounts. DeGrom will have a great case as a low-ownership GPP target thanks to a difficult matchup with the white-hot Braves offense. He's been worth 42 FDP or more in three straight starts and four of five, and has historically dominated Atlanta. Despite a 4-3 record over his last 12 starts, he has a 1.60 ERA and 83 strikeouts over 78.2 frames. Form versus form in this matchup. Kershaw has the much softer opponent, facing a Giants offense that ranks 29th with a .274 wOBA against lefties, though they fan just 23.9 percent of the time. He's been limited to 31 FDP or fewer only three times to date, and given the reduced price compared to Verlander, he's going to feature prominently in a lot of cash lineups at a minimum.
Brandon Woodruff ($9,300) is likely to be a popular pivot. He's gone for 39 or more FDP in six of eight starts and faces a Padres side that fans 26.8 percent of the time against righties. Lefties David Price ($9,000) and Cole Hamels ($8,600) look forgettable. Price gets a top-ranked Twins offense that has a .369 wOBA and 20.2 percent strikeout rate, while Hamels gets a White Sox offense that isn't great, but a 23.9 percent fan rate seemingly limits his upside.
The second and third tier of arms is far from exciting, especially the third tier where there isn't an immediate target for GPP savings. The second tier gives us Julio Teheran ($8,200) and Jack Flaherty ($8,000), who appeal for different reasons. Flaherty faces an always targetable Marlins lineup that ranks 29th against righties with a .281 wOBA. He has fanned seven or more in three of four, earning 28 FDP in five of six starts. That may not be enough for this price tag, but the matchup plus current form will make him trendy. Having faith in Teheran is never easy, but it's impossible to ignore the run he's on. He's allowed four earned runs in total in his last eight starts, spanning 44.2 innings. The Mets are a mid-tier offense, ranking 18th with a .310 wOBA and 23.1 percent strikeout rate. Teheran hasn't made it more than six innings in any outing during this current hot streak, so he lacks efficiency/innings upside. I'm personally not willing to see if Jordan Yamamoto ($7,600) can match the success of his debut, and while Marcus Stroman ($7,400) looks to have a 20-point floor, the potential from Teheran and/or Flaherty looks worth paying for.
Key Chalk/Value
Five games have totals of 10 runs or more Tuesday, an abnormally high number, which suggests GPP winners are going to need lots of points, and multiple entries with exposures across the board. Colorado at Arizona and Cleveland at Texas look like the chalkiest games to target.
In Arizona, the Rockies will send Antonio Senzatela to the hill, who is allowing a .433 wOBA and 1.039 OPS to lefties. Fire up David Peralta ($3,500) liberally, while Ketel Marte ($3,200) also profiles favorably. On the Colorado side, Charlie Blackmon ($4,500) couldn't be hotter, while the entire lineup comes discounted given the road matchup. Nolan Arenado ($4,200) and David Dahl ($3,500) are priced favorably.
A Zach Plesac vs. Adrian Sampson matchup in Globe Life with a total of 10.5 is obviously attractive. Plesac has struggled against opposite-handed bats, putting Shin-Soo Choo ($3,600), Willie Calhoun ($3,000) and Nomar Mazara ($3,200) atop the list of targets. Sampson has been worse against same-handed bats, and while that doesn't mean Carlos Santana ($3,900) and Francisco Lindor ($3,900) aren't options, Oscar Mercado ($3,200) may be a better fit as a stand-alone play.
Washington-Philadelphia, Tampa-New York and Boston-Minnesota round out the double-digit totals. A tad more on the first two can be found below. We noted the Twins prowess against lefties above, and that's led by Mitch Garver ($3,700) and Nelson Cruz ($3,900), both of whom have wRC+ north of 200 and ISOs of .351 and .459, respectively. Minnesota starter Michael Pineda has allowed at least three runs in 10 of his last 11 starts, rarely lasting more than six innings. While that's rather average, especially on this slate with lots of high totals, I see no reason to stay away from the top of the Red Sox order, with all of J.D. Martinez ($4,400), Mookie Betts ($4,100), Xander Bogaerts ($4,200) and Rafael Devers ($4,000) slotting as stable choices.
I'm never afraid to target a bad offense facing an even worse pitcher, and that's what we have with the Tigers against Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller, who has allowed 12 runs and 17 hits in seven innings, including nine first-inning tallies. But no Tiger regular has a wOBA better than Brandon Dixon ($2,800) at .334. Given his price and position (2B), why not role the dice and use the savings elsewhere? The other side of this game looks targetable as well against Daniel Norris, who can usually grind through five frames, but the Pirates offense similarly grinds and is unrelenting. Bryan Reynolds ($3,300) is very under-appreciated/under-valued, as is Melky Cabrera ($2,500). I'm not sure a stack is in order here, but pairing those two with Josh Bell ($4,400) is cost effective.
Another bad offense against a less than stellar lefty arm is the Orioles vs. Brett Anderson. Maybe a GPP stack is an option give the price, but at worst there's value to be found in Pedro Severino ($2,500) and his .439 wOBA and .340 ISO, while Renato Nunez ($2,600, .372 wOBA, .300 ISO) and Trey Mancini ($3,700, .408 wOBA, .267 ISO) also present well.
Stacks
Astros at Anthony DeSclafani (Reds)
Michael Brantley (OF - $3,900), Yordan Alvarez (OF - $4,000), Josh Reddick (OF - $3,200)
The positional limitations here aren't ideal, but DeSclafani is struggling at home and against lefties, so a full-on lefty attack here is in order. DeSclafani is allowing a .401 wOBA overall to LHH, and has a 5.47 home ERA compared to a 3.79 road total. Alvarez has a completely unsustainable .500 ISO, .519 wOBA and 239 wRC+ through 23 plate appearances, while Brantley has a more mortal .366 wOBA, 135 wRC+ and .211 ISO. Reddick's splits against righties are below his career norms, but he's fanning only 10.9 percent of the time, and I like his chances to produce atop the lineup in this targetable matchup.
Rays at J.A. Happ (Yankees)
Yandy Diaz (3B - $3,600), Tommy Pham (OF - $3,800), Brandon Lowe (2B - $3,500)
Happ has been very feast or famine, owning a 5.35 home ERA that is supported by a 6.18 FIP, but he still has two 40+ FDP outings in his last four. He's been prone to big innings, so the Rays' lineup construction will make the choices easier, as you'll want a clear, tight grouping. Diaz looks like the anchor here, likely hitting fourth and boasting a team-best .435 wOBA, 181 wRC+ and .275 ISO. Pham has next to no power potential, but a stable .384 wOBA out of the No. 2 hole. Lowe looks far underpriced with 14 homers, but for me he's more attractive if he's hitting third or fifth. His .345 wOBA and .204 ISO work for the position and price, but I'd feel better about him within this GPP stack if he's bundled in the lineup.
Phillies at Patrick Corbin (Nationals)
Rhys Hoskins (1B - $4,200), Jean Segura (SS - $3,400), Scott Kingery (OF - $3,300)
Weather is a serious concern in D.C., and their history of handling rain isn't great, so this stack will require patience and possibly some last-minute adjustments. I expect many will stay away from this contest for those reasons, and because of the name on the mound for the Nats -- assuming Corbin actually does start after Monday's washout. He simply hasn't been himself of late, allowing 16 runs over his last three starts, spanning 12.2 innings. The Phillies have a plethora of options to use against lefties, but Hoskins leads the way with a .426 wOBA, 166 wRC+ and .281 ISO. Segura goes .393/144/.296 while Kingery sits at .391/143/.257. Bryce Harper ($4,200) and J.T. Realmuto ($3,200) are also fine options.
