This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Now this is what I'm used to from a Sunday in MLB: 15 games on the slate. Every team in action. No seven-inning doubleheaders, no teams off. It's a "typical" Sunday for baseball. Unfortunately, instead of FanDuel doing a full-day slate, they currently only offer a contest of games ending at 2:20 p.m. ET. That means excluding the exciting Padres-Dodgers game, but also a Phillies-Rockies game I was quite interested in. In all my time writing about FanDuel contests, I have never seen them cut a Sunday slate short like this. Given that, I am leaving my recommendations for those games – there are three of them – in the article. Maybe by the time you read this there will be more contests available. If not, they could still be helpful for your fantasy or DFS purposes.
PITCHING
Jack Flaherty, STL vs. CIN ($8,600): Flaherty was looking like one of the best pitchers in baseball in 2019, but then dropped to a 4.91 ERA last year. However, that was in only nine starts and he still had a 4.10 FIP. While his strikeouts are down through three starts this season, his FIP has lowered to 3.75. Even though the Reds are at the top of the majors in runs scored, they ranked 27th in runs scored and last in batting average in 2020.
Lucas Giolito, CWS vs. TEX ($10,000): Giolito's last start was a disaster, so much so people were wondering if he was tipping his pitches or something like that. I'm not going to fret too much. Last season, he posted a 3.18 FIP and struck out 12.07 batters per nine innings. This year, he still has a 3.52 FIP even with the terrible start and has whiffed 12.54 hitting per nine. The Rangers ranked 29th in runs scored last season, so this could be just what Giolito needs to turn things around and ease any worries.
Danny Duffy, KC at DET ($8,800): Duffy has made three starts this season. All three have gone six innings and he's allowed all of one run. Sustainable? Of course not, but that doesn't mean he can't toss another gem Sunday. It shouldn't be too hard against the Tigers, who are in the bottom-five in runs scored this season after finishing 23rd last year.
Jameson Taillon, NYY at CLE ($7,200): Taillon didn't pitch last season and has only made three start so far, none lasting longer than five innings. He sports a career FIP of 3.54 and he's still working back from his second Tommy John surgery. Cleveland was 24th in runs scored in 2019 with Francisco Lindor, and now they don't have him. Perhaps unsurprisingly, they have the lowest team batting average to start 2021.
TOP TARGETS
Trevor Story, COL vs. PHI ($4,100): The Rockies are one of the worst teams in baseball on paper, but they still have a couple talented bats. And they also still play in Coors Field, which is a fun place for hitters. Story has produced a 1.005 OPS at home since 2019, including a .619 slugging percentage. He'll get to face Chase Anderson on Sunday and Anderson has a FIP over 6.00 across the last two seasons.
Bryce Harper, PHI at COL ($4,800): Hey, there's a game at Coors Field, why not double dip? Jon Gray actually has a 1.47 ERA at home this year, but a 6.75 ERA on the road. I don't expect things to continue like that in Denver, as Gray struggled with an 8.39 ERA at home last season. While I think Gray is a good pitcher, Coors Field is tough for any pitcher and Harper is a top-notch lefty facing a righty. He's managed a .532 slugging percentage over his last five seasons and power rules the day in Colorado.
VALUE PLAYS
Jazz Chisholm, MIA at SF ($3,300): Chisholm was considered one of the best prospects in baseball heading into 2021 even after he struggled in a cup of coffee in 2020. That's very easy to understand, given the circumstances of last season. The lefty shortstop is hot to start this campaign and displaying both power and speed with four homers and four stolen bases. He'll be facing Logan Webb, who comes in with a career 5.43 ERA.
Colin Moran, PIT at MIN ($3,200): Moran has shown more and more power with every season, and his .514 slugging percentage this year marks the best of his career. After a dip in average in 2020, he's back in line with the first two full seasons when he hit .277 both times. Matt Shoemaker has compiled a 6.28 ERA. And while it's only three starts, you definitely have to be concerned about the fact he's allowed five homers in only 14.1 innings.
Whit Merrifield, KC at DET ($3,500): Merrifield is one of the few speed merchants left in the majors. He's racked up six stolen bases already and managed 45 in 2019. Merrifield also consistently puts the bat on the ball with a career .295 average. Michael Fulmer's 4.03 FIP is not terrible, but he had a 6.91 FIP last season and 4.46 the season before that.
Trey Mancini, BAL vs. OAK ($3,200): Mancini has power. He's hit at least 24 homers in each of his three full MLB seasons and has four to start this year even though he's only hitting .213. Mancini is a career .273 hitter, so I expect that to improve. Speaking of improving, by pitching 5.1 innings of shutout baseball in his last start, Jesus Luzardo improved his ERA all the way to…5.89. I know he was considered a great prospect, but he also has a 6.39 ERA on the road since 2019 and has allowed a .309 batting average to righties in 2021.
STACKS TO CONSIDER
Twins vs. Luis Oviedo: Byron Buxton ($4,500), Jorge Polanco ($2,700), Luis Arraez ($3,100)
OK, so Oviedo will likely just be opening a bullpen game or something like that. He hasn't started a game yet this season, but over 6.2 innings has a 9.45 ERA. Frankly, there are no pitchers Pittsburgh can put out who I fear. Health has been the biggest issue Buxton has faced in his career. Well, that and a propensity not to walk a lot. That being said, he's posted a .576 slugging percentage over his last three seasons and once stole 29 bases over 140 games. Polanco is a switch hitter, so he can adjust to whoever is on the mound and in 2019 slashed .295/.356/.485 with 22 homers. Arraez often leads off for the Twins, which means the lefty should get at least one shot at the right-handed Oviedo with his career .328 average.
Red Sox vs. Nick Margevicius: Xander Bogaerts ($3,400), J.D. Martinez ($4,300), Rafael Devers ($4,000)
Margevicius, who has been dealing with an arm issue, is expected to start this game. That's good for him, but it's also good for the Red Sox. After all, Margevicius enters with a career 5.81 ERA. On the road, that ERA rises to 6.23. Bogaerts has hit at least .300 in each of the last two seasons and clubbed 33 homers in 2019. This year, he's produced a personal-best .577 slugging percentage to start the campaign. Martinez claimed last year was going to be a blip because he couldn't use video replay to make adjustments, and so far he's responded by hitting .359 with seven homers across 20 games. You may not have expected Devers since he's a lefty and so is Margevicius, but part of the reason why I selected him was to point this out: Margevicius has allowed a .303 batting average to left-handed hitters during his career.
