This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Eight games await Sunday's main slate. Here are my top selections:
Pitching Breakdown
Justin Verlander ($11,900) and Patrick Corbin ($11,200) lead the way, and are going to force a lot of hands for cash and GPPers alike in this reduced slate given the juicy matchups. Verlander has been worth at least 34 FDP in every outing since the All Star break and gets a limited Blue Jays' offense that fans 24.6 percent of the time while producing only a .308 wOBA and 91 wRC+. Corbin may present better against a Miami lineup he's worked 23.0 innings against to date, allowing 13 hits and two runs while fanning 21. Miami owns a .291 wOBA and 80 wRC+ against lefties on the year, suggesting Corbin is as stable as they come.
Michael Pineda ($9,500) is likely going to be a popular pivot, especially for casual players simply filling out a lineup. He gets a Tigers' side that whiffs 27.0 percent of the time against righties while posting a league worst .284 wOBA and 74 wRC+. But they've gotten Pineda for nine runs across 17.0 frames while only striking out 13 times. There's obvious win potential here, but it's not the slam dunk the matchup name suggests.
Personally, if I'm not paying for one of the top two options, I'm punting pitching for hitting Sunday. But if the middle tier is appealing to you at a moderate savings, Yu Darvish ($9,000) and Caleb Smith ($7,600) are worth considering. Darvish has cranked up his strikeout rate of late, with seven Ks last time out serving as a six-game low. He's faced Milwaukee only once this year and fanned eight in five innings, but he's also allowed four or more runs in two of his last four starts, so there's ample volatility. Smith seems equally as inconsistent, alternating solid and awful starts over his last eight outings by allowing 5, 0, 5, 1, 6, 4, 1 runs in order. If that pattern holds, he's due a nice showing at Washington - a team he allowed five runs over three innings against in May, but held to one run while striking out eight in six innings in April.
If you're a gambler, Baltimore's Aaron Brooks ($6,100) is your play. He's gone for 76 FDP combined over his last two games, one of which was a 30-point showing against Kansas City of whom he'll see again Sunday. The Royals' .302 wOBA and 85 wRC+ is nothing to shy away from, and Brooks will return 5x value if he can replicate that last outing.
Key Chalk/Value
Houston bats figure to be the fallback option Sunday against Clay Buchholz ($5,600), the slate's lowest priced arm. But he held the Astros to two runs over 5.2 innings in his last outing, his second straight start allowing just two tallies. That's certainly not enough to fade the 'Stros, but it's enough to pause a stack given how pricey they are. Opposite-handed bats Yordan Alvarez ($4,100) and Michael Brantley ($4,000) remain my preferred options.
Minnesota bats represent a great pivot from Houston, as the Twins face Spencer Turnbull ($5,900) who has allowed nine runs in his last eight innings and at least two runs in his last seven outings, lasting six innings only twice. He's been hit harder by lefties, so we'll tentatively pass on Nelson Cruz ($4,000) in favor of Jorge Polanco ($3,900), Eddie Rosario ($3,800), and/or Max Kepler ($3,500).
I'm expecting the Cubs' bats to draw plenty of eyes against Gio Gonzalez ($7,200), who has allowed 13 runs in his last 13.2 innings. The Chicago splits against lefties make them highly stackable, with Nicholas Castellanos ($3,200), Kris Bryant ($3,900) and Javier Baez ($3,800) all presenting very favorably and affordably. But somehow, Gonzalez has limited the Cubs to three runs in 16.1 innings and striking out 16. Sometimes when the play is so obvious, it's not the right choice and this could be an instance where that plays out.
There should be some value to be found in the A's lineup against J.A. Happ ($6,700). He hasn't worked more than six innings in 13 straight, eight times allowing more than two runs and 31 over his last eight appearances. The .373 wOBA allowed to righties at home puts a hot Marcus Semien ($4,200) on the standalone radar, while Matt Chapman ($3,800) and Mark Canha ($3,500) also make sense.
Stacks
Cardinals vs. Tyler Mahle (Reds)
Kolten Wong (2B - $3,100), Dexter Fowler (OF - $3,200), Marcell Ozuna (OF - $3,800)
Mahle has allowed nine runs and 14 hits across 10.1 innings against St. Louis to-date. His yearlong struggles are on the road with a 5.58 ERA and against lefties with a .374 wOBA allowed and .424 on the road. That allows us to target some cheaper options in Wong and Fowler, the former of whom is surging by owning a .407 wOBA and 153 wRC+ against righties in August. Ozuna is similarly hot, boasting five double-digit FDP games in his last eight and carrying a team-high .377 wOBA against righties. Fowler isn't in his finest form but isn't cost prohibitive and batting in front of hotter bats, so he'll have ample opportunities to produce runs.
Yankees vs. Sean Manaea (Athletics)
Aaron Judge (OF - $4,400), DJ LeMahieu (3B - $4,200), Luke Voit (1B - $3,400)
Any time we get the Yankees against a lefty, it's time to load up. Judge and LeMahieu have registered nearly identically huge numbers in this spot, which makes them a near must-own, and the third piece largely irrelevant. Judge boasts a .479 wOBA, 205 wRC+ and .333 ISO, while LeMahieu owns a .476/203/.286 line. Voit's return to the lineup and spot in the 4-hole offensively should give ample run producing opportunities at a discount.
Reds vs. Miles Mikolas (Cardinals)
Joey Votto (1B - $3,100), Josh VanMeter (OF - $2,800), Tucker Barnhart (C - $2,700)
The Reds have had Mikolas's number, scoring 15 times on seven homers across 21.0 innings. The BvP numbers are still very limited, but we can target the pitcher's .347 wOBA allowed at home to lefties, as he's allowing righties only a .213 wOBA. This is a GPP-only stack, as none of the lefties above possess terrific splits, and the game has a low 8.5 run total - which honestly seems too low. We're banking on Mikolas's struggles to continue, and the Reds' bats throughout the order to take advantage.
