This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Just six games are included in Saturday's main slate, limiting our options substantially. Thankfully, weather does not appear likely to further limit things during the evening.
Pitching Breakdown
With fewer options, you're going to be forced to pay or punt on the mound, and that starts with Justin Verlander ($11,500), who is 2k more expensive than anyone else. He's been worth 31 or more FanDuel Points (FDP) in all but one start this season, showing just how high his floor is. He'll face a Mariners lineup that ranks 10th with a .328 wOBA but also strikes out 24.8 percent of the time. He's a cash staple always, but I think many will look to avoid paying for him in GPPs, and if you can field a fair offense around him, I'm in favor of paying up here.
Zack Greinke ($9,500) is virtually the only pivot, and, given the discount, his downside appears to be largely about high ownership. He hasn't been great of late, allowing nine runs in his last 13 innings. Entering Friday, San Francisco had scored only 10 runs in their last five games and rank 28th with a .290 wOBA and 80 wRC+ against righties. It's a clear plus matchup but flirts a little bit with being too obvious for me.
Brandon Woodruff ($9,100) follows, and I find him overpriced. Yes, he's gone for 24 of more FDP in four straight, topping 48 points twice in that stretch, and he's fanning a career-high 10.9 per nine innings. But the Pirates fan only 19.4 percent of the time, seemingly capping the potential here.
Clayton Kershaw ($9,000) is obviously under-priced given the Coors Field assignment. He has a 4.30 ERA over his last 23.0 innings in Denver, allowing 28 hits and 11 runs, five of which came via homers. He's in good form, and I trust his ability to limit damage here. Given the price and matchup, he's not an awful GPP target with expected low ownership.
Dakota Hudson ($8,400) isn't a bad option, though not coming at much of a discount from the top options. He's been between 22 and 46 FDP in seven straight starts and faces a Padres lineup with a league-high 26.4 strikeout rate against righties.
Key Chalk/Value
The limited nature here means you have to have some pieces of Coors Field, and if we think Kershaw is at worst serviceable, that means the chalk is Dodgers' bats against Jon Gray ($7,000), who has allowed only one run over his last 12.0 innings, but has allowed 31 runs to the Dodgers in his last 55.0 innings against. Justin Turner ($4,000) is the BvP option (8-of-22) as no one else presents well or suggests power, and Gray has surprisingly stable numbers at home. Dare I say fade, or go cheap with the ballpark being the real target?
Yusei Kikuchi ($6,000) is the cheapest arm on the slate, which will make Astros' bats very popular. Alex Bregman ($4,200) has a .315 ISO against lefties, but a relatively low .367 wOBA. George Springer's ($4,400) .362 ISO and .415 wOBA fits the price and he looks locked in immediately off IL activation. Jose Altuve ($4,000) has unfortunately see his price rise dramatically while hitting in seven straight after a one-game acclimation.
I'm not sure what to make of Jordan Lyles ($7,300) in his return from injury. His 3.64 ERA is supported by a 4.19 xFIP, but he allowed 16 runs in his last four starts prior to injury, spanning 18.2 innings. He's also been hit hard by lefties, allowing a .367 wOBA and .867 OPS. Building around Christian Yelich ($4,500) certainly makes sense, while Mike Moustakas ($3,700) and Yasmani Grandal ($3,300) aren't cost prohibitive.
San Diego's Chris Paddack ($8,100) is in the same category as Lyles; he has a 3.18 ERA and 4.04 xFIP, but has allowed 14 runs over his last 19.1 frames. The Cardinals bats can't seem to get going, and Paddack is allowing a sub .300 wOBA to both lefties and righties, so this looks like a place to avoid as you can. Tommy Edman ($2,500) is worth a look if he draws a start
Stacks
Athletics vs. Tyler Skaggs (Angels)
Khris Davis (OF - $3,400), Marcus Semien (SS - $3,400), Matt Chapman (3B - $3,700)
Skaggs honestly has no targetable splits, so this is all about the A's potential. Oakland as a unit has a .355 wOBA, .230 ISO and 126 wRC+, fanning only 17.0 percent of the time against lefties. And none of their bats are priced north of 4k, so it's a great opportunity to buy. Davis and Semien are BvP darlings, paired with positive lefty splits. Davis is 9-of-21 with four homers against Skaggs, and brings a .389 wOBA, 149 wRC+ and .318 ISO to the table. Semien is 10-of-24 with two long balls against Skaggs, adding a .357 wOBA against lefties. Chapman has less success against Skaggs, but carries a .347 ISO against lefties, making him an ideal upside addition.
Diamondbacks vs. Drew Pomeranz (Giants)
Eduardo Escobar (SS - $4,200), Ildemaro Vargas (2B - $2,500), Ketel Marte (2B - $4,100)
Pomeranz is allowing a .405 wOBA and .972 OPS to righties, putting nearly all Diamondbacks in play. This stack will lock up your utility position, with Vargas and Marte the only options at second, but all three have tremendous numbers against lefties. Escobar offers a .461 wOBA, 186 wRC+ and .343 ISO, Vargas goes .455/182/.349, and Marte .409/153/.317. Nick Ahmed ($2,800) also presents well if you need to save/free up a utility spot.
