This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Saturday's main slate includes eight games, a higher number than most this day of the week. And there's no shortage of pitching options, while weather also doesn't seem likely to alter the docket.
Pitching Breakdown
Justin Verlander ($11,900) leads a quadrant of aces Saturday. He'll look to bounce back from a low six-strikeout outing in his last appearance against Boston, his second lowest total of the year. Oakland, surprisingly, only fans 20.2 percent of the time, and the price here is very steep. With other top options, Verlander looks a bit cost prohibitive.
Clayton Kershaw ($10,100) follows at substantial discount. The Phillies don't present an ideal matchup, fanning only 20.5 percent of the time against lefties while ranking seventh with a .336 wOBA. But Kershaw has been worth 31 or more FanDuel points (FDP) in all but one start to date, setting him up for stability in cash lineups at a lower price, while also making him an overlooked GPP pivot as he's situated between other top options in a less than preferred situation.
Zack Greinke ($10,000) has been dialed in nightly since his woeful Opening Day appearance, going for 37 or more FDP in nine of 11 starts. He's my preferred option of the top arms for stability, even if his upside is somewhat limited by a Mets' offense that strikes out only 23.6 percent of the time while ranking 19th with a wOBA of .312 against righties. His adversary, Jacob deGrom ($9,900) may not see a price tag this low again all year. But it's justified by the fact he's been worth 15 FDP or less in two of his last three outings. The D'Backs offense presents virtually identically to that of the Mets with a 23.6 percent whiff rate and a .313 wOBA. There's nothing to shy away from, and while he's lacked consistency, deGrom's only clear downside Saturday is that his price makes him too attractive.
Looking down the pricing, Jack Flaherty ($8,100) is in great form but faces a hot Cubs side. Miami's Jose Urena ($7,400) always struggles for run support and, in turn, win upside, but he's allowed two or less runs in four straight starts, surrendering six total, spanning 26.0 innings. Facing a Padres offense that carries a 26.9 percent fan rate and only a .299 wOBA against righties, Urena is going to be a (rightfully) trendy GPP target.
Key Value/Chalk
Per usual, things begin at Coors Field, where the Rockies and Blue Jays have a slate-high total of 11. More on the Blue Jays below, but normal Rockies bats figure to be cash game anchors. Marcus Stroman ($6,900) will be making his debut in Denver, and has allowed only one run in each of his last three starts. He has a 57.6 percent ground ball rate, so maybe he can find some success here, but I see no reason to fade the likes of Trevor Story ($4,700) or Nolan Arenado ($4,800), while David Dahl ($4,000 has been worth 9.2 FDP or better in eight of his last nine.
Potential game stacks are suggested with Boston-New York Yankees and Seattle-Los Angeles Angels. Boston will face Domingo German ($8,200), who allowed seven runs in his last start to Kansas City but has otherwise been brilliant. Rafael Devers ($3,900) is a personal favorite with his .392 wOBA and .204 ISO, but there's no reason not to build around J.D. Martinez ($4,200) or Mookie Betts ($4,300). The Yanks will face Rick Porcello ($7,800) who has struggled mightily on the road, with a 5.76 ERA and 5.95 FIP. A stack of Gary Sanchez ($4,100), Luke Voit ($4,100) and Gleyber Torres ($3,800) makes plenty of sense if in the budget, while Gio Urshella ($2,900) should be a trendy cheap option given his form.
The Angels-Mariners game checks in with a 9.5 total, despite two pitchers having ERAs of 3.60 or less, as southpaws Tommy Milone ($6,700) and Andrew Heaney ($8,700) square off. The price discrepancy suggests we should target Angels' bats first, and Mike Trout ($4,800) leads the way (obviously.) He rakes against lefties to the tune of a .409 wOBA and .305 ISO. No other Angel has terrific splits against lefties however, so if you need cheaper exposure against Milone, targeting bats around Trout in the order is the play. That leads us to David Fletcher ($3,000) and Shohei Ohtani ($3,100). Heaney on the other side has been solid, which pushes the Mariners down the line as stackable options. But all of Mitch Haniger ($3,900), Tim Beckham ($3,300) and Jay Bruce ($2,900) boast wOBAs of .386 or better against lefties and are cheap.
Stacks
Blue Jays vs. Jon Gray (Rockies)
Justin Smoak (1B - $3,800), Lourdes Gurriel (OF - $3,500), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3B - $3,400)
It's a rare occurrence when we can stack a team in Coors' Field for less than 4k per player, so take your pick from the Blue Jays' lineup. Smoak looks like your anchor, owning a .392 wOBA and .291 ISO against righties thusfar. Gurriel has swung well since rejoining the team, homering four times in six games entering Friday. Guerrero always carries upside, and his .228 ISO and .348 wOBA aren't awful for the price. Toronto's offense has been bad enough their prices can't surge too much here, leaving Cavan Biggio ($3,100) and Freddy Galvis ($3,400) as top of the order cheap buys to boot.
Dodgers vs. Cole Irvin (Phillies)
Cody Bellinger (OF - $4,900), Joc Pederson (OF - $3,700), Max Muncy (1B - $3,600)
I'm personally struggling to justify Irvin's price of $8,100. He's allowed 10 runs and 12 hits in his last 10.2 frames and carries a 5.60 ERA into Saturday, backed up by a 5.08 xFIP and only a 6.6 K/9 ratio. He's also allowing a .444 wOBA to lefties, of which the Dodgers have plenty. Bellinger carried a seven-game hitting streak into Friday and boasts an obscene .507 wOBA, 224 wRC+ and .395 ISO against righties. Pederson does him one better, sporting a .432 ISO, while Muncy sits with a .218 ISO and .367 wOBA. Corey Seager ($3,500) and Alex Verdugo ($2,900) are cheaper lefty options to give you an in.
Astros vs. Brett Anderson
Alex Bregman (SS - $4,300), Jake Marisnick ($2,500), Josh Reddick (OF - $2,900)
Injuries continue to make the Astros' offense highly stackable thanks to a plethora of cheap options. Bregman's splits against lefties aren't ideal, owning just a .340 wOBA but a .250 ISO, and frankly, there isn't another option to build around. Marisnick continues to perform well against southpaws, sporting a .474 wOBA and .294 ISO, while Reddick sits at .447/.222. Anderson owns a 3.86 ERA, but a 5.19 xFIP and has, surprisingly, been more vulnerable to lefties, helping Reddick's cause.
