This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Seven games make up Saturday's main slate, and weather doesn't appear to be an issue.
Pitching Overview
This slate is very top-heavy, led by Washington's Stephen Strasburg ($10,800) against the Cubs. It's not an ideal matchup against a club that ranks fifth with a .338 wOBA against righties while striking out just 22.8 percent of the time, but Strasburg is dialed in. He's fanned nine or more in four of his last five and only has one sub-30 FDP day to date.
Jose Berrios ($10,400) follows, and despite six games with at least 37 FDP in nine outings, he's a bit of a fade for me. He's fanned five or fewer in four of his last five and has relied upon earning wins while working deep into games to accumulate his scoring. Seattle's .335 wOBA and 24.4 percent whiff rate are middling, but it's just not a plus matchup for which I'm personally interested in paying.
Lefties Jon Lester ($9,300) and Madison Bumgarner ($8,600) appear to round out the upper echelon of arms. Lester could get locked into a pitcher's duel with Strasburg, and while the Nationals do strike out 26.6 percent of the time against southpaws, they also rank fifth with a .340 wOBA. Bumgarner is in an even worse spot, with the D'Backs ranking second against lefties with a .365 wOBA and .226 ISO. For me, this is a rough cash game slate with no slam dunk option, and possibly going the cheap route is advantageous in both cash and GPP games.
If only things were that easy, as the second tier of arms isn't leaping off the page either. Nick Margevicius ($7,000) doesn't stack up well. Facing a Pirates side with a 27.4 percent K rate, .065 ISO and .268 wOBA looks good, but Margevicius has a 5.31 xFIP at home, fanning only 7.3 per nine. Truthfully, there's a negative to pair up with a positive for every second-tier arm, and it looks like most are going to have to be content with 20ish FDP from their pitcher while figuring out how low a floor you can stomach.
Key Value/Chalk
Houston-Boston has the slate's highest total at 10.5 or 11, so building around these lineups makes sense. Houston will use righty Corbin Martin ($8,300), while Boston counters with a same-handed Hector Velazquez ($5,600). Given the price disparity, the Astros look like the starting point. George Springer ($4,500), Alex Bregman ($4,300) and Michael Brantley ($4,000) all have wOBA's north of .400, while Jake Marisnek ($2,400, .377 wOBA, .362 ISO) and Robinson Chirinos ($3,200, .397 wOBA, .292 ISO) offer cheaper buy-ins if they draw starts. Martin was sound in his MLB debut after shining at Triple-A, but a few shares from the Boston lineup in hopes he's in awe of pitching at Fenway could work. Mitch Moreland ($3,600, .374 ISO) continues to rake righties, while Michael Chavis ($3,700) has a higher wOBA (.400) than does J.D. Martinez ($4,400, .336 wOBA).
I incorrectly targeted Kansas City-LAA yesterday, and while I won't stack much there today, the game still has a high total (9.5) and shouldn't be completely ignored, as neither Jakob Junis ($6,400) or Griffin Canning ($6,800) invoke much fear. Second tier Angel options like Kole Calhoun ($3,400, .379 wOBA) or Brian Goodwin ($3,100, .385 wOBA) could help round out lineups. The Royals don't have many ideal cheap plays, but gambling on Jorge Soler's ($3,200) power (.270 ISO) could provide a return, as Canning has allowed four homers across 14.1 innings.
I'm not sure what's worse, Zack Godley ($5,800, 7.65 ERA, 1.67 HR/9) or the Giants offense. San Francisco has no bat priced higher than $3,000, so you can load up to your heart's content if you're willing to gamble. Brandon Belt ($3,000) is the most stable, boasting a .393 wOBA and .296 ISO to go against the .425 wOBA Godley is allowing to lefties at home. Pablo Sandoval ($2,600) has a surprising .367 ISO and .421 wOBA against righties, and has homered twice during his current five-game hit streak.
Stacks
Braves vs. Chase Anderson (Brewers)
Freddie Freeman (1B - $4,200), Nick Markakis (OF - $3,700), Brian McCann (C/1B - $3,100)
Atlanta's offense is clicking, having scored 22 runs in their last two games, including four homers Friday. Freeman is absolutely where you should start in targeting this lineup. He's gone deep in consecutive games and is a known streaky power play, while also carrying a stable .395 wOBA against righties. Markakis and McCann put the ball in play, both striking out 11.7 percent of the time or less. And both currently carry a wOBA of .398 or better, and a wRC+ of 149 or better.
Twins vs. Wade LeBlanc (Mariners)
Eddie Rosario (OF - $4,000), C.J. Cron (1B - $3,500), Jonathan Schoop (2B - $2,700)
There are a lot of angles from which to attack LeBlanc, but Rosario needs to be the anchor. He's carrying a .435 wOBA and .357 ISO into the matchup. Cron is the GPP power target, boasting a.417 ISO to go along with a .448 wOBA against lefties. Schoop fits in with positive splits against lefties (.399 wOBA, .235 ISO), and comes cheaply at a position void of stability, which gives him stand alone value. Other options include Byron Buxton ($3,400), Miguel Sano ($3,000) and Marwin Gonzalez ($3,100), depending on the actual lineup.
Padres vs. Montana DuRapau (Pirates)
Franmil Reyes (OR - $3,400), Eric Hosmer (1B - $3,300), Hunter Renfroe (OF - $3,100)
What this stack lacks in position eligibility, it makes up for with incredible savings. Renfroe has a .337 ISO to go along with a .348 wOBA, though he does strike out 31.7 percent of the time. Hosmer boasts a .350 wOBA and .189 ISO, and Reyes brings a team-high .370 wOBA, .349 ISO and 136 wRC+. FanDuel currently lists Nick Kingham as the starter, but most other sites are listing DuRapau. It makes little difference, as neither is likely to throw a plethora of innings and both seem likely to get work as the Pirates piece together eight or nine innings.
