This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Eight games are on the main slate Saturday night, so a little less to choose from than normal. Weather looks surprisingly stable, but the East Coast can always see a pop up storm.
Pitching
It's quite the night when Max Scherzer ($10,800) is your third-priced pitcher. But that's the case here with Jacob deGrom ($11,300) leading the way, and Gerrit Cole ($11,000) following closely behind. DeGrom is the chalkiest of the chalk against the lowly Marlins, who rank last in the league with a .264 wOBA and 66 wRC+ while striking out 26.8 percent of the time. Cole's matchup is the polar opposite, as the Rangers rank third with a .347 wOBA against righties, with a moderate 23.4 percent whiff rate. He's also faced Texas twice already this year and allowed 11 runs in 10.1 frames. Maybe he's the GPP target of this trio? Scherzer's struggles seem a bit exaggerated, as he leads the league with a 1.95 FIP and has earned 40 FanDuel points (FDP) in three straight and four of five. The matchup isn't ideal, but the price to potential certainly is.
Walker Buehler ($9,400), Anthony DeSclafani ($9,000) and Zach Eflin ($8,800) are the next tier, and each presents interesting cases for purchasing. Buehler's 4.95 ERA is met with a 3.63 FIP, and he's posted 31 FDP or more in three of four, while the Nationals are whiffing 26.0 percent of the time against righties. I personally don't trust DeSclafani, but his 4.16 FIP isn't far off from his 3.65 ERA, he's made 37 or more FDP in four straight, and he gets a weak hitting Giants side that ranks 25th with a .294 wOBA against righties. Eflin sits similarly, as he's earned 43 or more FDP in four of his seven starts and is in a positive spot against a mediocre Royals offense, but he carries a 4.32 FIP against a 3.00 ERA, suggesting regression is coming.
The cheap options don't leap off the screen here, but looking at Jeff Samardzija ($6,700) could prove valuable. His floor has been 15 FDP, his ceiling 51, and he's gone for 21 or more FDP in four of seven. The Reds rank 28th across the league with a .283 wOBA. He can be combustible, but he could also flirt with matching DeSclafani at a fraction of the cost and allow for some big bats in the process. I won't recommend Sandy Alcantara ($5,800) against a Mets lineup that bit me Friday, but the game comes at an absurdly low 6.5 total, which if true, could leave Alcantara some 15-20 FDP on the cheap.
Key Value/Chalk
Colorado. At home. Against a lefty (Joey Lucchesi, $6,300). Virtually all cash lineups should center around Nolan Arenado ($5,000), and he's in play where budget allows for GPPs as well with the massive upside he carries. For reason's I noted in Friday's DraftKings column, we can target cheaper buy ins to this lineup such as Ian Desmond ($3,700) and/or Chris Iannetta ($3,400), if the latter is in the lineup. The Rockies face a lot of lefties in the coming week, so expect to read about them frequently, and pick and choose the right spots for them in this lineup, as they'll seemingly all get a slice. The Padres' side of this Coors' Field matchup seems highlighted by Eric Hosmer ($3,800), as a rare left-handed bat in their lineup against Jon Gray ($6,800) and his .368 wOBA allowed.
Atlanta vs. Merrill Kelly ($7,500) and Philadelphia vs. Brad Keller ($7,000) can be options individually or stackable. Atlanta jostled their lineup Friday night, so checking it again Saturday could tip the scale in certain players' directions. Ronald Acuna ($3,900) led off Friday, and while unsuccessfully doing so, he's barreled the ball much better in the previous two nights, and the extra at bat atop the lineup won't hurt. Dansby Swanson ($3,300) moved to the two-hole and would be a consideration if he remains there. Cesar Hernandez ($3,000) and his .364 headline the value options for Philly Saturday, while Rhys Hoskins ($4,600) and his .350 ISO and .440 wOBA are the safe play.
Detroit looks like a decent place to find some GPP savings against Kohl Stewart ($5,600). Ronny Rodriguez ($3,400) is their highest-priced bat, and he boasts a .444 wOBA and .381 ISO against righties. Niko Goodrum ($3,000) should hit cleanup, while Christin Stewart ($2,900) has a .320 ISO and .359 wOBA against righties. A stack would be the ultimate tournament gamble, but the Tigers are so bad offensively on most nights, they are priced just right to choose your poison; cheap lineup fillers with potential or a bad lineup in an even worse matchup that's worth exploring.
Stacks
Astros vs. Drew Smyly (Rangers)
George Springer (OF - $4,700), Jose Altuve (2B - $3,800), Yuli Gurriel (1B - $2,800)
Houston is going to be as chalky as can be, but the matchup looks so divine I feel obligated to stack rather than list above. Springer has an obscene .485 wOBA, 216 wRC+ and .419 ISO against lefties to date, while Smyly is allowing a .387 wOBA to righties. Altuve is in a funk, which makes him a great value in this plus matchup, as he carries a .476 wOBA, 210 wRC+ and .438 ISO. Gurriel makes this stack even more affordable, and while his .222 ISO pales in comparison, his .402 wOBA doesn't. Jake Marisnick ($2,200) is also an option, though he's shown no power against lefties to date.
Diamondbacks vs. Kevin Gausman (Braves)
Christian Walker (1B - $3,800), David Peralta (OF - $4,100), Jarrod Dyson (OF - $3,200)
Gausman may actually be due a sound showing, as he brings a 5.00 ERA but only a 4.05 FIP to the table. But until he shows the form he had down the stretch last year, we can happily target options against him. He's been vulnerable on the road, allowing nine runs over is last 11.1 innings. Walker continues to hit well (.419 wOBA, .319 ISO), while Peralta offers a lefty-righty matchup with a .397 wOBA against opposite-handed arms. Dyson is surging and brings a speed element to lineups while carrying a steady .359 wOBA.
Twins vs. Gregory Soto (Tigers)
Eddie Rosario (OF - $4,200), Jonathan Schoop (2B) - $3,200), Mitch Garver (C - $3,100)
Confirm the Tigers' rotation Saturday, as FanDuel has Spencer Turnbull ($8,400) set to start as of Friday evening, while most other sports sites have Gregory Soto making his Major League debut in the second game of a double header. Soto has only 13.1 innings above High-A, and is ripe for picking. Rosario leads the way with a robust .526 ISO, adding a .452 wOBA and 187 wRC+. Schoop and Garver have a combined 29 ABs against lefties, so we need to confirm they are in the lineup and take their splits with a grain of salt, but for the price and positional savings, they work in stack or stand alone status. Neither has a wOBA under .565, clearly unsustainable but worth targeting cheaply against a likely overwhelmed pitcher.
