This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
This week is taking us into the Fourth of July weekend, and the fireworks begin Monday with nine MLB games taking place at 7:05 p.m. ET or later. Well, I don't know if this is the fireworks really "beginning," but that's the narrative I decided to go with. Either way, here are some recommendations for Monday's DFS lineups.
PITCHING
Zack Greinke, HOU vs. BAL ($8,700): There are some concerns about the fact Greinke has struggled at home, but overall he has a 3.56 ERA. Additionally, over his last seven games he has a 2.87 ERA. The Orioles have one of the worst offenses in the majors and a team OBP around .300, so Greinke should be able to manage at home Monday.
Freddy Peralta, MIL vs. CHC ($9,500): The Brewers are winning on the strength of their pitching staff, and Peralta is a big part of that. He has a 2.11 ERA and has struck out 12.67 batters per nine innings. That's in line with a career 12.23 K/9 rate. The Cubs are middle of the pack in runs scored, but that's not enough to scare me off Peralta at home.
Trevor Bauer, LAD vs. SF ($11,000): Of the pitchers I'm recommending, Bauer has the best (on-field) reputation. That makes sense, given that he won the NL Cy Young last season and has a 2.57 ERA through 16 starts. He also has a favorable ballpark for pitchers. On the other hand, the Giants have one of the best offenses in MLB. That's why I am recommending him after Greinke and Peralta.
TOP TARGETS
Aaron Judge, NYY vs. LAA ($4,000): Judge's power has dropped a bit, but he still has 17 homers and still is on pace for a slugging percentage over .500 for the fifth season in a row. In terms of home runs, Dylan Bundy has given up 1.99 homers per nine innings this year, and he has a 6.68 ERA to boot.
Juan Soto, WAS vs. NYM ($4,000): Soto is still waiting to get his power back, but otherwise he's been just fine. He's hit .274 and has a .399 OBP, which are admittedly not good by his standards but are good by most standards. Soto is only 22. He's going to find that old form, and perhaps soon. Jerad Eickhoff didn't allow a run in his first start of the season, but, over the three seasons prior, he posted a 5.07 ERA.
VALUE BATS
Carlos Santana, KC at BOS ($3,500): As Santana gets up there in years it seems like his power is starting to drop. That being said, he still has a .366 OBP, which directly lines up with his career number. He's also shown enough power to poke 12 balls over the fence in 2021. Garrett Richards has a 4.74 ERA but a 6.46 ERA at home. On top of that, he has an 8.44 ERA over his last four starts.
Jeimer Candelario, DET at CLE ($2,500): Candelario is one of the hitters who didn't mind 2020, as he slashed .297/.369/.503. His power is down this year, but he's hit .262, and, as a switch hitter, he can bat lefty against the right-handed Eli Morgan. Over his first three MLB starts, Morgan has a 10.32 ERA.
STACK TO CONSIDER
Astros vs. Thomas Eshelman: Jose Altuve ($4,500), Carlos Correa ($4,200), Michael Brantley ($3,500)
Eshelman has only appeared in two games this season, but he's posted a .727 ERA. Over his career he's notched a 5.45 ERA, even though he's pitched most of his games out of the bullpen. The righty has also allowed 2.38 home runs per nine innings in his career. A few Astros have bounced back after tough 2020 seasons, and Altuve leads the pack there. He's slashed .292/.369/.513 with 17 homers. Unlike Greinke, Correa has been excellent at home, as he has a 1.046 OPS in Houston, and he had a 1.034 OPS there in 2019. Brantley only has four home runs, which is odd because he's slugged .511. Unsurprisingly, he has 22 doubles and two triples.
