This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Seven games are included in Monday's customary limited slate, which seems to put a premium on selecting the right arm and building from there.
Pitching Breakdown
Patrick Corbin ($10,500) headlines, and he's been under 43 FDP just once in his last seven outings. I'm normally not for buying pitchers against the Braves, but they are looking awfully vulnerable right now. Nick Markakis and Dansby Swanson are both out, and Ronald Acuna left Sunday with a neck issue. This lineup could be heavily depleted, and if Johan Camargo, Adam Duvall and Ender Inciarte are left to pick up the slack, Corbin has great potential, as we already know Tyler Flowers will start over Brian McCann. This Braves lineup looks like a top four followed by five easy outs.
Caleb Smith ($9,400) follows and is a mix of sound form versus a challenging matchup. Including a nine-point stinker at Milwaukee, Smith is averaging 34.0 FDP in his last six outings with a ceiling of 55. But he faces a Diamondbacks offense that ranks third with a .349 wOBA and 114 wRC+ against lefties.
Sonny Gray ($9,200) rounds out the 9K options and may be the preferred play on this slate, even if the Pirates have only a 19.2 percent K rate against righties. He's been worth 40 or more FanDuel points in five straight starts, fanning at least seven in each while lasting at least six frames. He's faced the Pirates three times this year, allowing five runs and 13 hits across 15.1 innings, striking out 14, numbers skewed by a 2.2 inning outing in his first start of the year, where he allowed two runs and five hits.
Brad Keller ($8,400) and Dallas Keuchel ($8,100) are next up price-wise. Keller certainly merits consideration against a bad Blue Jays lineup that ranks 27th with a .301 wOBA against righties, adding an 86 wRC+ and 24.5 percent K rate. Keller is also in a nice groove, averaging 45.3 FDP over his last three. Keuchel has a difficult matchup against a Washington team that hits lefties well. He's leaving balls up in the zone and paying for it, allowing 1.44 HR/9 this season after just 0.79 a year ago. I personally think he can match Corbin here in a pitcher's duel, but that personal hunch isn't worth risking when there are safer options.
There aren't a lot of secondary options that are attractive. San Diego's Dinelson Lamet ($6,600) would be worth a look, but it appears his start will be pushed to Tuesday with Chris Paddack (not listed at submission) going Monday. Paddock absolutely looks like an option but won't be cheap. Merrill Kelly ($7,900) just allowed seven runs to Baltimore, so I'm fading him here against Miami.
Key Chalk/Value
Dodgers at Rockies is where everyone will start when looking at bats. Los Angeles starter Kenta Maeda ($6,400) actually seems to have solved Coors Field, however, allowing 32 hits and 14 runs over 40.1 innings, striking out 44, dating back to 2016. He's not listed above in the pitchers section, as I'll never target an arm here, but treading lighter than usual on Rockies bats wouldn't be a terrible idea. The Dodgers side, however, should be featured as often as you can afford. Max Muncy ($4,400) has seen his price surge but may be my preferred option for GPP power, while Justin Turner ($4,300) is the more stable option for cash.
Angels-Tigers has a high total of 10.5, seemingly largely due to the presence of Jordan Zimmerman ($6,000) on the mound for Detroit. Mike Trout ($4,900) is always an option, and we can find a little value in David Fletcher ($3,400) hitting in front of Trout, as he has a multi-hit game in three of his last five, and four of eight. The Angels send Jaime Barria ($7,200) to the bump, and despite a 6.63 ERA, he has a lower 4.87 xFIP and has allowed two runs or fewer in four of five and five of seven. The two outings he failed to do so resulted in 17 runs allowed, so there's certainly the chance of combustibility. Niko Goodrum ($2,800) is the right play if you're forcing your way in on the Tigers, as he has a .376 wOBA and 135 wRC+ since July 1.
San Diego bats are in play here against Baltimore, who appears set to use its bullpen to piece together Monday's game. That bullpen has the second-highest ERA in the league at 5.69. Fernando Tatis Jr. ($4,100) and Manny Machado ($4,000) are obvious, but there's a steep decline in price within this lineup afterward. Eric Hosmer ($3,100), Hunter Renfroe ($3,200), Franmil Reyes ($3,000) and Manuel Margot ($2,700) all offer cheap ins to this lineup's plus matchup.
Stacks
Royals vs. Thomas Pannone (Blue Jays)
Whit Merrifield (OF - $3,400), Hunter Dozier (OF - $3,200), Jorge Soler (OF - $3,100)
This is all about Pannone, and it's an incredibly cheap stack that allows you to target other (better) offenses. The prices show the risk, as the Royals aren't prolific against anyone, but especially against lefties. Merrifield's .340 wOBA and .258 ISO are the highest of this trio. But Pannone has a 6.39 ERA and 5.56 xFIP across 43.2 innings, adding a 4.49 xFIP in 27.1 frames at Triple-A, being abused nearly equally regardless of batter handedness.
Reds vs. Jordan Lyles (Pirates)
Eugenio Suarez (3B - $3,900), Josh VanMeter (OF - $2,700), Joey Votto (1B - $3,300)
Another stack more against a pitcher than truly in favor of the offense. Lyles has allowed five or more runs in three of his last four outings, twice not making it out of the second inning. He's allowing a .416 wOBA and 1.006 OPS to lefties, something the Reds have plenty of, and maybe can help us forget about the power that has been zapped from Votto's bat. VanMeter is white-hot, homering three times in his last four outings, averaging 23.3 FDP in that span. Suarez, while right-handed, is by far the Reds' safest option, hopefully bringing some stability to this stack. I'm not interested in Derek Dietrich ($2,900) but could pivot to Scooter Gennett ($2,600) or Jesse Winker ($2,800) to get more opposite-handed bats in and save some money.
