This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
To Coors or not to Coors?
That is once again, the question. With Tyler Anderson likely taking on Dennis Santana and the Dodgers' bullpen, it will be an extremely difficult slate to fade Colorado completely.
Fortunately, there are a few other games with plenty of potential for fireworks Friday, despite some very good pitching matchups whittling away at the top options at some of the thinner positions.
I'm making a concerted effort to indicate the type of contest I prefer to use players in -- cash (50/50) or tournaments (GPPs) -- which is generally an exercise in estimating ownership rates (or "finding the chalk") and making sure to have enough variation around the highly-coveted top value plays to have a dangerous lineup.
A strong cash-game play isn't necessarily a "bad" tournament play, but too many "chalky" players can create a limiting factor in big-field tournaments.
Your constructive feedback is appreciated, and always welcomed.
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Pitcher
Cash: Carlos Carrasco, CLE at MIN ($9,400) -- Here's the logic. With Gerrit Cole matching up against Chris Sale, the two best arms on the board skills-wise are facing two of the most difficult lineups, which makes them risky enough to them on the bubble for cash game Friday. Stephen Strasburg catches the Braves in Atlanta, which presents a similar matchup-driven difficulty. It's a Coors Night as well, so saving up with a cash-friendly arm is a priority, and Carrasco fits the bill. There are no overwhelming favorites to lean on -- Sonny Gray and the Yankees are -180 at Baltimore while Jaime Barria and the Angels are -160 favorites at home against Texas. Even with Carrasco, the matchup isn't a cake walk with Jose Berrios taking the ball for Minnesota, but the Twins' 91 wRC+ and 22.0% K% against right-handed pitching gives Carrasco a softer landing spot than Cole, Sale and Strasburg have.
Also consider: Nick Pivetta, PHI at SF ($8,200), Cole ($11,400), Sale ($11,000), Strasburg ($10,300), and Berrios ($9,100).
GPP: Stephen Strasburg, WAS at ATL ($10,300) -- The tougher matchups for the aces on the board should temper ownership rates in tournaments, which then leaves a few options available with Strasburg leading the way. The Braves' offense is very good, posting a 105 wRC+ against righties and limiting strikeouts this season (20.2% K%), but the slight price break on Strasburg leaves the window open for a little more Colorado exposure compared to paying $11K plus for Cole or Sale. Behind Strasburg, Berrios checks in at a close second for me as a tournament play, mostly because the Cleveland offense is good like Atlanta's offense (105 wRC+ vs. righties), and since I expect Carlos Carrasco to be a chalky option on the other side as noted above.
Also consider…
Nick Pivetta, PHI at SF ($8,200) -- I have a creeping suspicion that Pivetta might be somewhat chalky in tournaments, which is why I listed him first among the cash-game alternatives behind Carlos Carrasco. His price Friday does not reflect the quality of the matchup at his disposal, nor does it fully account for his seemingly legitimate skills growth in 2018, which has included more strikeouts (28.8% K%), backed by more swinging strikes (11.3%), fewer walks (6.0%), and fewer homers allowed (0.78 HR/9).
Sonny Gray, NYY at BAL ($7,300) -- Maybe I'm a stubborn idiot. Gray draws the Orioles at Camden Yards and the Yankees are the biggest favorite on the board (-180) as of Friday morning. He's sprinkled in three decent starts around two clunkers over his last five, with the most recent outing against the Angels being the worst of that bunch. The Orioles strike out a lot (fourth-highest team K% split on the board), and their offense has underperformed all season (25th-ranked wRC+ split). If you can't use Gray in this spot, when can you use him?
Catcher/First Base
Jesus Aguilar, MIL at CHW ($3,400) -- What does Aguilar have to do to push his price up into the low $4,000 range? The White Sox have lefty Hector Santiago starting Friday, giving Aguilar the platoon advantage matchup on a night where the Brewers' lineup, which is well positioned for adding the DH, should have plenty of right-handed thump available. Aguilar hit .272/.355/.565 with eight homers in May, averaging more than 13 FanDuel points per game during that span. He should be among the most heavily-owned options at first base Friday night, tilting the interest more toward cash games than tournaments.
Other options to consider include: Justin Smoak, TOR at DET ($3,300), Jose Abreu, CHW vs. MIL ($3,600) and Paul Goldschmidt, ARI vs. MIA ($3,700), Matt Olson **GPP only**, OAK at KC ($2,900)
Second Base
Yoan Moncada, CHW vs. MIL ($3,500) -- Like Aguilar, Moncada figures to be a heavily targeted bat in the Brewers-White Sox matchup. Since returning from the DL in mid May, Moncada has been mired in a slump, hitting .203/.257/.297 with a 5:22 BB:K, one homer and one stolen base over his last 16 games. Brewers starter Chase Anderson has a career-worst 2.1 HR/9 against lefties this season, as he's failed to miss bats against lefties the way he did during his 2017 breakout.
Alternatives: If the extra $400 are available in the budget, bumping up to Gleyber Torres ($3,900 at BAL) is a desirable option. On the cheap end of the pool, Devon Travis is only $2,200 against Tigers lefty Blaine Hardy. Jed Lowrie at $3,300 against Ian Kennedy at the Royals is another mid-tier option worth considering.
Third Base
Jake Lamb, ARI vs MIA ($3,200) -- The humidor has worked as predicted at Chase Field, but there will still be matchups worth taking advantage of, and that is the case for Lamb on Friday with young right-hander Elieser Hernandez making the start for Miami. With wRC+ marks of 128 and 133 in 2016 and 2017, respectively, it's easy to look past the 70 he's posted in a tiny 52 plate-appearance sample to begin 2018. In addition to the favorable matchup against Hernandez to begin the game, the Marlins are one of three teams with a below-replacement level bullpen through the first two-plus months of the season.
Elsewhere, Justin Turner against lefty Tyler Anderson at Coors Field for $4,100 is an excellent building block. Adrian Beltre ($3,000) against Jaime Barria and Miguel Andujar ($2,900) against Andrew Cashner the O's are also in play tonight.
Shortstop
Chris Taylor, LAD at COL ($4,000) -- This is one of the worst big-slate setups for the shortstop position that I've seen this season. Taylor has hit lefties at an above-average clip since the start of last season, so a road matchup in Coors against Tyler Anderson stands out as a particularly useful chalk play when the best alternative is Manny Machado ($4,200) at home against Sonny Gray (fire away, if you're not building lineups around Gray). Carlos Correa faces off against Chris Sale, Francisco Lindor gets Jose Berrios, and Xander Bogaerts sees Gerrit Cole.
Outfield
Lorenzo Cain, MIL at CHW ($3,700) -- Cain figures to be in the leadoff spot again for the Brewers on Friday night as they open up a series against Hector Santiago and the White Sox. Warmer conditions in the midwest should help the ball carry in an already hitter-friendly environment, which bodes well for bats up and down both lineups. Cain has a 153 wRC+ against lefties since the start of 2015, ranking him among the top-20 hitters during that span (min. 50 PA). Thanks to his position atop the order, Cain may be the only Brewers hitter capable of topping the ownership rate of Jesus Aguilar on Friday's slate.
Khris Davis, OAK at KC ($3,400) -- Davis appears to have made it through his return from the DL on Thursday without incident, and he'll kick off a three-game series in Kansas City against Ian Kennedy, who is easily among the most homer-prone starting pitchers taking the ball Friday. Now that he's healthy again, Davis should be locked in to his usual place in the heart of the Oakland lineup. With a .256/.332/.550 line against right-handed pitching since the start of 2017, Davis may be slightly overlooked because it's a righty-righty matchup, but this is a favorable spot for him nonetheless.
Nick Castellanos, DET vs. TOR ($3,800) -- The Tigers may be a somewhat sneaky stack option on Friday night, especially since FanDuel uses the C/1B flex spot and lefty-masher James McCann will be used sparingly in that spot or as the UTIL option. Castellanos crushes southpaws as well, following up his 143 wRC+ last season in that split with a blistering 197 mark to begin 2018. Warm temperatures and wind blowing out to right field are pairing to create hitter-friendly conditions at Comerica Park on Friday as well, which bodes well for the bats on both sides of the Jaime Garcia-Blaine Hardy matchup.
