This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Some minor scheduling oddities have Friday's main slate cut down to a smaller 10 games. But we've still got a few aces on the mound, and Coors Field to contend with. Only Detroit does not have a listed starter as of submission.
Pitching
There doesn't appear to be much separating the top to arms in Corbin Burnes ($10,900) and Gerrit Cole ($10,600). Cleveland is obviously the better offense, and doesn't strike out nearly as much (17.4 percent versus 25.0 percent for Pittsburgh) so maybe a slight edge to Burnes. But both are in fine form and can be deployed as your budget allows.
Chris Bassitt ($9,800) has been up and down this year, but he's currently trending up, averaging 36.2 FDP across his last six starts, including a seven-point stinker at San Diego. There's no doubting this matchup with Texas is favorable, given their 91 wRC+ and 23.3 percent K rate. But I find myself being drawn to Cristian Javier ($9,100) in this second-tier of arms. He's coming off of a mammoth 70 FDP outing against the Yankees, and gets an Angels team that is more and more simply two hitters and a bunch of outs. They also fan at a 26.1 percent clip.
The pay down options do not appear plentiful. We're left choosing between low upside, overpriced arms that have soft matchups with Detroit and Oakland, something we consider almost every night. Marco Gonzales ($8,000) gets the A's for the third time this year. He allowed five runs in 5.1 innings in their first meeting, but just two in seven frames two starts ago. He's in relatively decent form, going for 26 FDP in five of his last six, so a 3x return feels likely. Brad Keller ($8,100) is not in the same form, having allowed at least three earned runs in eight of his last nine. But he's made it six innings in six of those, and limited the Tigers to two runs across seven frames earlier in the year, giving him a chance at a quality start. The risk here still seems greater than the reward. I think we can find more upside potential in Lance Lynn ($7,800). His 6.19 ERA is ugly, but it comes with only a 3.33 FIP, and .354 BABIP surely is due regression as well. He's increased his innings and strikeouts in each of his three starts and figures to be back looking like his 2021 self sooner than later.
Top Targets
Often times when writing this column, I struggle with this section. The top priced bats are there for a reason, and it's almost always a good time to use them, but never a requirement. Friday, that feels different, a I confidently want a piece of both New York offense. The Yankees get Aaron Civale, who honestly has thrown better of late, but is still allowing a .401 wOBA to righties. Nine hitters are listed above Aaron Judge ($4,100) so maybe he isn't highly used?
Similarly, Texas throws Glenn Otto at the Mets, who is allowing a .386 wOBA to righties against a .296 wOBA to lefties. Pete Alonso ($4,000) makes a lot of sense as a result. Stacking/mini-stacking either or both of these lineups certainly comes recommended.
Bargain Bats
Julio Rodriguez ($3,600) is surging, having homered in consecutive games and in four of seven. The Mariners' lineup is a bit injury depleted, making stacking against always targetable James Kaprielian a bit more difficult, so we can take their lone spark and look elsewhere.
Kris Bryant ($3,600) is back from the IL and has a modest three hits in three games since returning. We're still waiting on that elusive first homer, but he's also 7-of-16 (.438) in his career against Merrill Kelly. Perhaps he's a contrarian in to the Rockies offense.
Christian Walker ($3,100) doesn't have a hit in his last four games, but he's somehow made 9.2 FDP in three of those games. He continues to labor through a .153 BABIP, but isn't priced up due to the Coors Field situation, and we know the power is there.
Stacks to Consider
Twins vs. Orioles (Spenser Watkins): Byron Buxton ($3,800), Jorge Polanco ($3,300), Luis Arraez ($3,000)
This figures to be a tad chalky, with Watkins being the cheapest arm on the slate, why wouldn't we load up offensively against him? But the splits here make for difficult choices, as Watkins is far more vulnerable against same-handed bats, allowing a .413 wOBA to righties against .320 to lefties. We know Buxton remains largely homer or bust, but with a .323 ISO and only 15.6 percent soft contact rate, we'll chase power here. Arraez remains the low upside contact machine, sporting a .404 wOBA,169 wRC+ and only .103 ISO. Polanco is a bit of a contrarian play. His .346 wOBA isn't anything to target, but it's fourth amongst Twin regulars. He's got multiple hits in three of his last five, and should help give us the 1-2-3 in this order.
Dodgers vs. Padres (Blake Snell): Trea Turner ($4,100), Freddie Freeman ($4,100), Will Smith ($3,300)
With some obvious targets in the Mets, Yankees, and even Rockies and Diamondbacks, maybe we can get the Dodgers at a bit lower usage. Snell has really struggled in limiting damage, as 36 of the 39 runs he's allowed have come with runners on, allowing a .321 BA and .358 wOBA against .170/.277 with the bases empty. Turner and Freeman atop a line usually put pitchers into taxing situations, and the hope is this will be no different. Turner's splits are down this year against lefties, but they remain elite over the course of his career. Freeman saw a 12-game hit streak snapped Thursday, and carries a .374 wOBA and 143 wRC+ against same-handed arms. Smith is a nice stand alone target given the reduced price. He leads Dodger regulars with a .408 wOBA, 166 wRC+ and .260 ISO.
