This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
A nearly all-encompassing 13-game slate awaits Thursday's main contest. As of submission, we confirmation of all but Toronto, San Francisco, and Texas' plans on the mound, giving us a 23 pitchers to choose from, and pick on.
Pitching
The top of this slate is a nice challenge. The top tier offers some names not in great form, some lesser names with increased price tags, and nearly all of them facing top-10 in wOBA. The depth here certainly doesn't require paying up, but that will lead to lower usage too. But if living in the 9k and above range, Michael Kopech ($9,500) and Kyle Wright ($9,000) are my standouts. Kopech's strikeout rate is down (23.5 percent, 8 per nine against 36.1 percent/36.1 percent a year ago), but that should play up against a Twins team fanning at a 25.5 percent rate while having the lowest wOBA (.292) of the top option's opponents. Wright is the opposite. His strikeouts are up (12.3 per nine, 8.5 last year) and is giving up weak contact, allowing an exit velocity average of just 89.2. Miami counters with only a 26.3 percent hard hit rate and 23.1 K percentage.
A bunch of southpaws stand out in the middle range. David Peterson ($7,600) figures to be popular against Arizona, whose .205 wOBA, 28 wRC+ and .035 ISO are all league-worst against lefties. But the Diamondbacks fan only 22.9 percent of the time and Peterson only gets 7.6 per nine. Pair that with him having not worked more than 4.1 innings, and there is some risk. I might rather roll the dice with Tarik Skubal ($7,900) against a Rockies team on the road for just the third time, Bruce Zimmermann ($7,700), whose 26.3 percent K rate gets an Angels lineup fanning 27.3 percent of the time, or Ranger Suarez ($7,300), who has a decent shot at 5+ innings and a win against a Milwaukee lineup with just a .238 wOBA against lefties.
If going under 7k, Reid Detmers ($6,700) is my choice. It's rare we get to target Baltimore with a bargain, and Detmers is certainly priced based on form, but not talent. If he pitches to that talent, he'll thrive on a Orioles defense that whiffs 30.7 percent of the time while posting only a .066 ISO.
Top Targets
Top bats feel like top arms Thursday; do we really need to pay up with so many options? I personally don't think so, as saving $400 or so from top-priced Jose Ramirez ($4,300) or Shohei Ohtani ($4,300) can really help build a more balanced lineup. If going north of 4k, I'll take Freddie Freeman ($4,100). He was powerless before facing his old mates earlier this week, but Freeman has a .456 wOBA and 200 wRC+ against righties across 40 plate appearances.
The Mets come in white hot, leading the National League in runs scored, with a lineup that has six regulars with a wOBA of at least .395. Francisco Lindor ($4,200) headlines (.457 wOBA, 204 wRC+, .286 ISO), but the price point is challenging. Pete Alonso ($4,000) gives us the upside power option (.308 ISO, .396 wOBA, 163 wRC+), while a surging Eduardo Escobar ($3,700) is surely the overlooked/under-used option He's 8-of-16 over his last five games, walking an additional four times.
Ranked in order of preference are a host of big names that are struggling, and priced very favorably: Jose Abreu ($3,500), Mookie Betts ($3,500), Byron Buxton ($3,600), Aaron Judge ($3,600)
Value Bats
It will take a lot of convincing for me not to be interested in bats from both sides of a Michael Wacha - Corey Kluber pitching matchup, as I'll buy into age and decline over two reasonable successful starts to open 2022. Alex Verdugo ($3,500) looks the safest for the price points. He's reached base safely in seven of eight, carrying a .449 wOBA, 201 wRC+ and .345 ISO against righties. For a cheaper entry to this game, Tampa's Randy Arozarena ($2,800) may be starting to warm, doubling four times in his last three, scoring five times and driving in three.
I really wanted to squeeze in a Rangers' stack against Adam Oller, who has very attackable splits early on, but the Rangers' have one hitter with a wOBA north of .300, and thats Nathaniel Lowe ($2,900). He brings a six-game hitting streak, .432 wOBA and 194 wRC+. His ISO is currently .000, so don't expect fireworks, but there should be some stability on the cheap.
If you're interested in fading Detmers from above, you won't find many cheaper or lesser-used options than Trey Mancini ($2,500) and/or Austin Hays ($2,600), who have a .382 wOBA/.237 ISO and .372/.233 against lefties, respectively, since 2021.
Stacks to Consider
Braves vs. Marlins (Trevor Rogers): Ozzie Albies ($4,000), Matt Olson ($3,900), Travis d'Arnaud ($3,100)
Rogers hasn't looked like the budding ace we saw last season. He's allowed 10 hits, 10 runs and five walks, lasting just 6.2 innings across two starts, and he's reportedly seeing some decreased velocity. Most regular players know Albies is always in play against a lefty, posting a .401 wOBA, 150 wRC+, .283 ISO and only 15.2 percent K rate since 2021. Olson betters that in his very limited Atlanta sample size, carrying a .464 wOBA, 200 wRC+, .167 ISO and is walking at the same rate as he's fanning (29.4 percent). These two are pricey however, so we have to go deeper to make it work. d'Arnaud seems a lock to play after resting Wednesday and Thursday's off day, and he has four multi-hit games across his last eight outings while just a 15.6 percent soft contact rate.
Giants vs. Nationals (Patrick Corbin): Brandon Belt ($3,800), Brandon Crawford ($2,800), Wilmer Flores ($2,800)
Corbin is the real target here. He's allowing a .417 wOBA to lefties and .371 wOBA to righties, allowing 10 runs in his first 12 innings. Belt seems to lend stability (.373 wOBA against lefties since 2021) and upside (4 HRs to date, .225 ISO). Crawford is a true BvP option, being a reasonable 11-of-43 with two homers and seven RBI. Flores is a second pay down option with some upside. He doesn't strike out (15.2 percent against lefties since 2021, 12.2 percent overall this year), and if he's locked in to the top portion of the order, getting four chances to put it in play against Corbin and the Nats' bullpen lends itself to opportunity at worst.
