This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
A full 15-game slate awaits Friday evening. That obviously lends itself to plenty of pitching options, four of which come with a five-digit price tag. You'd think the depth of this slate would lend itself to plenty of pitching, but the mid tier is chalked full decent names in tough spots, or mediocre at best options who've feasted on bad teams of late and aren't trustworthy. I'm not saying you have to pay up, but the second wave of pitchers certainly has volatility.
Pitching
Aaron Nola, PHI vs. ARI ($10,000): Nola is the obvious popular choice near the top of the arms. He's certainly been erratic on a game to game basis, but is coming off of an 11 K performance against the Padres where he went 8.2 innings, and he's now struck out at least seven in three of four. The matchup is soft, with the D'Backs ranking 28th with a .295 wOBA, adding a weak 82 wRC+ and .137 ISO, while their strikeout rate has been climbing of late, up to 24.8 percent for the year.
Wade Miley, CIN at MIA ($8,800): I still don't fully trust Miley despite his terrific season-long form, and he does appear to be waning of late, going for 22 FDP or less in four of his last six outings, including one against Friday's opponent. But the stats say to back him, and given the volatility elsewhere, I'll support that. Marlins Park is cavernous, and Miami has a 28.1 percent K rate against lefties to go along with a .296 wOBA, 88 wRC+ and .145 ISO.
Jake Odorizzi, HOU at TEX ($7,700): Odorizzi profiles awfully similarly to Miley and is $1,100 cheaper. He's not a hard thrower or a big K guy, but he's in a pitchers ballpark against the league's worst offense against righties, with the Rangers carrying just a .290 wOBA and .666 OPS against righties. The upside is minimal given the low Ks and limited innings, having not worked six since July 9. But he can limit damage and the Astros offense goes to work, five innings and a win gets 30 FDP.
Dallas Keuchel, CWS vs. CHC ($7,100): The middle to bottom of this pitching slate is simply awful. Sure someone could pop, but I'm not risking that, especially for cash lineups. Paying up for an arm is going to limit spending on top bats, but hopefully we'll find some juicy values to round things out. Keuchel is as low as I'm willing to go on the bump, and it's virtually all about the Cubs matchup, not his form. They have a 26.5 percent K rate against lefties, and a 30.5 percent K rate in August, adding a .296 wOBA and 83 wRC+.
Top Targets
Vladimir Guerrero, TOR at DET ($4,500): Guerrero is in a bit of a power drought, homering just three times this month. But he figures to have an incredibly stable floor Friday, posting a .430 wOBA, 175 wRC+ and .310 ISO against same-handed arms. Tigers' starter Matt Manning remains a top prospect, but he's been peppered this season, posing an 8.01 ERA and 6.50 FIP in Triple-A before a 5.91 ERA and 4.86 FIP after his call up. Of greater concern is the minuscule 12.0 K rate. The Jays will put a lot of balls in play here.
Trea Turner, LAD vs. COL ($4,400): Rockies' starter Kyle Freeland ($6,800) is in terrific form and would make for an interesting GPP gamble, but given the matchup, I couldn't include him above. Turner meanwhile is in stable form, going for at least 9.2 FDP in six of seven, averaging 12.9 in that stretch. He' usually an automatic play against a lefty, having not missed a beat in his new home, posting a .454 wOBA, 190 wRC+ and .316 ISO in this spot.
Value Bats
Enrique Hernandez, BOS at CLE ($3,600): Hernandez is arguably overpriced, but all Boston bats are here in an obvious stacking spot against Logan Allen, who is simply getting shelled every time out. Normal top options against lefties in this lineup like J.D. Martinez ($3,800) don't have great splits this year. Enter Hernandez and his .379 wOBA, 138 wRC+ and .247 ISO against southpaws. He's in great form with six hits in his last three, gives us a piece atop the lineup many will stack, and we can differentiate elsewhere.
Alex Bregman, HOU at TEX ($3,600): This is a friendly reminder Bregman is back, and his price hasn't fully responded yet. Sure, his RvR splits aren't terrific, but that's out the window with the Rangers reportedly turning to rookie Glenn Otto to make his MLB debut as they piece together nine innings. That puts all Astros in play, from Yordan Alvarez ($4,300) to surging Jake Meyers ($2,900) and/or Taylor Jones ($2,300) if in the lineup. Bregman is a nice medium.
Eloy Jimenez, CWS vs. CHC ($3,400): We've seen Jimenez go on power surges before, his price sky rocket, his power dissipate, and his price plummet. That seems like where we're at right now. Jimenez went yard last time out, and leads White sox regulars with a .425 wOBA, 175 wRC+ and .324 ISO, adding a 44.6 percent hard hit rate. Cubs' starter Keegan Thompson's 2.42 ERA isn't supported by a 4.94 FIP. He's due some regression.
Stacks to Consider
Rays vs. Matt Harvey: Wander Franco ($3,900), Brandon Lowe ($3,900), Austin Meadows ($3,300)
Harvey carries a 6.62 ERA and 5.38 FIP at home into Friday, so loading up on Rays seems obvious. He's been more vulnerable to righties than lefties however, and the Rays' approach to loading up with LvR matchups makes things a little dicey. Franco is too hot to fade despite his .298 wOBA against righties, riding a nine-game hit streak. Meadows is arguably my favorite play of the day, as his .380 wOBA and .300 ISO are hard to find in his price range. He's a run producing machine. Lowe leads the team against righties, boasting a .394 wOBA and .306 ISO.
Pirates vs. J.A. Happ: Bryan Reynolds ($3,200), Ke'Bryan Hayes ($2,800), Michael Chavis ($2,100)
Here's a GPP value stack that could pop and allow you to pay up for an arm. I'm not buying J.A. Happ's current three-game run of success, even with one of those outings coming against these Pirates. He still has a 6.71 road ERA and 5.40 xFIP, allowing a .446 wOBA to lefties and .377 to righties. Reynolds is the anchor and a clear stand alone value as well, carrying a .392 wOBA, 147 wRC+ and .937 OPS. Chavis is hot with seven hits in his last 12 at bats, and likely hits atop the lineup. Hayes is quietly riding a six-game hit streak with three extra-base knocks in that stretch. Likely hitting 1-2-3, they'll get the most cracks at Happ.
