This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
A full 15-game slate awaits Friday evening. There's only three five-digit arms available, with he lowest priced option being the "best" but facing the least favorable matchup. We also have the looming trade deadline, so who knows who gets yanked from lineups. It's a factor worth considering if choosing between player a or b.
Pitching
Corbin Burnes, MIL at ATL ($11,200): Nothing stands out if you want to pay up for pitching, so if that's you're flavor, I'm going all the way up. I make no effort to hide that Atlanta is my team, and I'd love to reverse jinx. But they hit .240 against righties, striking out 24.9 percent of the time. That latter number is the answer, as Burnes and his 12.9 K/9 ratio will play nicely here.
Touki Toussaint, ATL vs. MIL ($8,500): It's hard to trust Toussaint's current surge given his sporadic history, but he's had a 42 FDP floor in two starts, and the matchup makes it difficult to ignore him despite a surging tag. The Brewers strike out 25.6 percent of the time against righties, and there aren't many scary pieces in their lineup, especially with Christian Yelich sidelined. As a unit, they carry a .309 wOBA and .161 ISO into Friday.
Jameson Taillon, NYY vs. MIA ($7,900): The Marlins are always targetable thanks to a 25.1 percent K rate, and now they're without Sterling Marte and in full on sell mode. Taillon's 8.8 K/9 is his three-year high, and he looks like he's getting healthy, going for at least six frames in three of four, and 28 FDP in five of his last six. Form, paired with matchup suggests 4x minimum.
Martin Perez, BOS vs. TB ($6,500): Perez hasn't faced the Rays since April 6, when he put up 24 FDP. That's honestly good enough at this number if you wanna pay for bats. Tampa fans at an alarming 27.1 percent, which should allow Perez, who's stuck out 15 across his last 13.2 frames, the opportunity to provide an ample return.
Top Targets
Bryce Harper, PHI at PIT ($4,200): Perhaps Harper's day-to-day tag keeps usage low, and we obviously need to confirm his availability, but a back issue that kept him out Thursday seems minor. We know we want shares against Bucs' starter Wil Crowe, and while he's been far more vulnerable against same-handed bats, trusting Harpers LvR splits is the safer play in the Phillies lineup, as he goes for a .413 wOBA and .293 ISO.
Joey Votto, CIN at NYM ($4,200): Fade at your own risk. Votto has homered in six straight, eight times total, while collecting 12 hits in his last seven games. Mix in a robust .444 wOBA, 177 wRC+ and .344 ISO against righties, against Mets' starter Carlos Carrasco making his season debut, and there's reason to expect the power surge to continue.
Juan Soto, WAS vs. CHC ($4,000): The Nats are in full sell mode, and while Soto isn't going anywhere, he's going to have to produce almost single-handedly. That should be a fair expectation Friday however. Soto's .420 wOBA, 162 wRC+ and rising .189 ISO should play well against Cubs' starter Trevor Williams, who is allowing a .411 wOBA and .958 OPS to lefties on the road.
Value Bats
Miguel Sano, MIN at STL ($3,200): Sano has quietly hit in seven of his last nine games, including two homers in his last outing, adding five walks in six games to boot. The Twins lineup will be in flux due to the trade deadline, but Sano hasn't been in that mix and gives a surging bat with power upside against the slate's cheapest arm in Wade LeBlanc.
Bryan Reynolds, PIT vs. PHI ($3,200): We'll need to confirm he's in the lineup and not trade bait, but it's a plus spot for Reynolds. He carries a .381 wOBA and 140 wRC+ against righties into this matchup with Vince Velasquez, who is allowing a .450 wOBA to lefties on the road, and has been touched up for 19 runs in his last four starts, spanning only 15.2 innings.
Yoan Moncada, CWS vs. CLE ($2,900): It hasn't been a banner year for Moncada, who hasn't posted a double-digit point effort in 10 days. His .362 wOBA against righties isn't huge, but it's serviceable at his price point, and the hope is it plays up against J.C. Mejia, who's allowing a .429 wOBA and 1.023 OPS to lefties.
Stacks to Consider
Blue Jays vs. Daniel Lynch: Bo Bichette ($4,100), Marcus Semien ($3,700), Teoscar Hernandez ($3,400)
Vladimir Guerrero ($4,500) is always a fine option, but stacking him with additional Jays can be cost prohibitive, so I'll look to load up around him against Lynch, who is allowing a .400 wOBA and .942 OPS to right-handed bats. Hernandez rakes against lefties to the tune of a .443 wOBA, 184 wRC+ and .356 ISO. Semien and Bichette should hit 1-2 in the lineup ahead of Guerrero, with Bichette bringing a .409 wOBA to the table, and Semien a .241 ISO, offering both on base opportunity and some power potential.
Red Sox vs. Josh Fleming: Rafael Devers ($3,900), J.D. Martinez ($3,800), Xander Bogaerts ($3,400)
It's not often a bad play to use the Sox big three, and this looks like the right spot to deploy them freely against Fleming, who has allowed 10 runs and 14 hits across his last 8.1 frames. Bogaerts is in a wicked slump, but still leads the Red Sox with a .396 wOBA against lefties. Devers in an LvL spot isn't always perfect, but Fleming has been hit hard by same-handed bats, while Martinez has better history against lefties than his 2021 splits suggest. If Devers rests due to a quad injury, a pivot to Enrique Hernandez ($3,300) works.
