This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
13 games await Friday's main slate, and it's anything but conventional on the top of the pitching slate, where we have two arms priced in the five-figure territory. Both options have plus plus matchups, so we'll target both below while looking for a few GPP value arms, and some cheaper bats to allow paying up for said pitching.
Pitching
Carlos Rodon, CWS vs. SEA ($11,200): It's a huge number, but Rodon hasn't shown many signs of slowing down, posting 46 FDP in four of his last six and nine of 12 overall, including 48 FDP against the Mariners in his season debut. He's fanning a career-best 12.83 K/9 while allowing just 0.73 HR/9, and faces a lineup that owns a 27.6 percent K rate, and minuscule .287 wOBA and 85 wRC+.
Framber Valdez, HOU at DET ($10,700): The profile here is nearly identical to above. Valdez is averaging cool 41.2 FDP across his five starts. He's not as strikeout heavy at just 8.07 per nine, but gets a boost against the Tigers' league-worst 29.6 percent K rate while checking in 29th with a .285 wOBA, 78 wRC+ and .129 ISO. The floor seems awfully high.
Chris Paddack, SD vs ARI ($8,500): It's irresponsible for me not to include Paddack here, but I think he's far too obvious to actually use. The Diamondbacks are simply brutal offensively. Their 24.9 percent K rate is slightly higher than league average, but their .286 wOBA is the league's worst, adding a bottom-tier 79 wRC+ and .128 ISO. Paddack has gone for 48 and 49 FDP in his last two outings, but Arizona has gotten him for eight runs in 9.1 innings across two starts earlier in the year. The appeal is obvious. I'm just not sure the upside is guaranteed.
Vladimir Gutierrez, CIN vs. ATL ($7,100): Atlanta's lineup is a host of Four-A players hitting around a handful of capable, yet largely struggling bats. They fan 25.1 percent of the time against righties and have struggled mightily against unfamiliar arms. It's a feast or famine lineup begging for homers, something Gutierrez has allowed only three of in 28.0 innings. If Ronald Acuna returns, maybe press the pause button, but Gutierrez has shown 6x upside twice already.
Top Targets
Vladimir Guerrero, TOR vs. BAL ($4,800): Guerrero has been so dominant he's being priced out of being an option. But the matchup is too good to ignore if not paying up for arms. He's got a .484 wOBA, 210 wRC+, .375 ISO and 43.1 percent hard-hit rate against righties. O's starter Matt Harvey is allowing a .413 wOBA and .966 OPS to same-handed bats.
Fernando Tatis, SD vs. ARI ($4,700): I'm flirting with at least a third straight column simply listing the top-priced bats as "top" targets. It doesn't take a brain to do so, but how do we ignore the matchup? Tatis has a .439 wOBA, .387 ISO and 50.4 percent hard hit rate against righties. D'Backs starter Corbin Martin is allowing a .488 wOBA, 1.170 OPS and 48.4 percent hard hit rate to righties. A GPP lineup with Tatis, Guerrero and a cheap arm will certainly be shooting for the stars.
Value Bats
Jose Ramirez, CLE at MIN ($3,600): As this column progressed, it really becomes about salary allocation, as there are so many juicy matchups, especially against lefties (Yankees bats excluded here). But Ramirez is priced down having not hit in his last 11 ABs, but has an inviting opportunity Friday. Randy Dobnak is allowing a .433 wOBA to lefties, Ramirez has just a .364 wOBA against righties, but a .312 ISO. He's a nice big name to pair with a top arm above.
Kyle Schwarber, WAS at MIA ($3,200): Schwarber is absolutely Friday's free square. A few weeks back, I questioned his lack of form with a tag higher than Juan Soto. That script has flipped, as a move to the leadoff spot has Schwarber launching eight homers in his last 19 at bats. It's a clear power chase, but form pairs with season-long success, as he carries a .382 wOBA and .357 ISO against righties.
Sean Murphy, OAK vs. SF ($2,700): Giants' starter Johnny Cueto has allowed at least three runs in three straight and four of five. Yes, he's being hit harder by opposite-handed bats, but Murphy is in the midst of a 10-game on base streak, and pairs that with a .395 wOBA, .260 ISO and 157 wRC+, second in all categories to Matt Olson. Murphy didn't start Thursday so he should be safe here, and offers a cheaper in to a solid to better offense.
Stacks to Consider
Reds vs. Drew Smyly: Nick Castellanos ($4,100), Jonathan India ($2,900), Tyler Stephenson ($2,500)
Smyly has been okay of late, but is still fanning a career-low 7.88 per nine while allowing 2.2 HRs, something we can expect in Great American Ballpark. Castellanos is the obvious anchor, carrying a .409 wOBA and .279 ISO against lefties while being hot off of a homer and three RBI Thursday. India has moved into the leadoff spot in front of Castellanos, immediately boosting his upside while sporting a .377 wOBA against opposite-handed arms. Stephenson has positive splits (.390 wOBA, .298 ISO) and didn't start Thursday, offering value. If he doesn't get the nod, why not chase power with Aristides Aquino ($2,400) who has a monstrous .600 ISO against lefties to date.
Astros vs. Wily Peralta: Yordan Alvarez ($4,100), Michael Brantley ($3,800), Kyle Tucker ($3,400)
Tucker being priced slightly down makes this pseudo affordable even with a slight pay up on the bump. Peralta simply isn't a Major League pitcher at this point, and while not fully targetable because of sample size, he's allowing a .669 wOBA to leftie, so the opportunity to load up is present. Brantley is my anchor, owning a .445 wOBA and 190 wRC+ and multiple hits in five straight and 10 of 13. Tucker has a .403 wOBA, 162 wRC+ and .267 ISO, and Alvarez a .374/143/.227 slash; not huge but he's homered in two of three and gives a third lefty bat.
Pirates vs. Kwang Hyun Kim: Ke'Bryan Hayes ($3,200), Bryan Reynolds ($3,100), Adam Frazier ($3,000)
Hopefully, I present my opinions to make you think and pick and choose some favorable options. Do I really believe three Pirates are the path to success Friday? Maybe? It's just really hard to ignore the favorable numbers at their respective tags. Hayes boasts a .442 wOBA, 184 wRC+ and .368 ISO. Reynolds goes .436/181/.256 and Frazier .374/140/.208 as they likely hit 1-2-3 in the lineup. Low usage and big potential at a bargain if you're looking for an outlier, and each piece can play as a bargain individually.
