This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
A robust 14-game slate awaits Friday evening, with only the Cubs-Pirates day game omitted. We're treated to four five-figure priced pitchers, none of which are names we expected to see at this number at any point during the campaign. So it's form over name value we have to trust if paying up. But the depth of the slate paired with some odd names up top figures to yield it's share of bargains.
Pitching
Trevor Rogers, MIA vs. MIL ($10,400): I'm going to just ignore Carlos Rodon ($11,200) as I don't want to wish any ill will on him, and he's been beyond fantastic. Rogers comes at a marginal discount, and seemingly has a safer floor. The Brewers do rank fifth with a .350 wOBA against lefties, but they also fan 29.2 percent of the time. Rogers put up seven Ks and 49 FDP in a prior matchup with Milwaukee, but may not have a large margin for error. He's allowed runs in three of his six outings, and two of those three were worth just 24 FDP.
Jack Flaherty, STL vs. COL ($10,200): This is my preferred pay up option Friday, especially for cash lineups. Flaherty has won five straight starts, four of which were of the quality variety. He's gone for 46 FDP or better in three of those with a 36 FDP floor, and the Rockies bring only an 80 wRC+ against righties to the table.
Charlie Morton, ATL vs. PHI ($7,900): Morton hasn't been consistent, and isn't in good form either, having allowed four or more runs in three of his last four outings. But he's fanning 10.4 per nine, whiffing at least five in any start, and twice holding opponents to one run. One of those was the Phillies, where he posted a season-high 46 FDP. Philadelphia fans 26.5 percent of the time against righties, the fifth highest total to date, and carries only a .289 wOBA, 82 wRC+ and .140 ISO against righties. That makes for a stable floor with GPP upside at a favorable price.
Matt Shoemaker, MIN at DET ($6,200): Shoemaker hasn't gone more than 5.1 inning in four straight starts, and he's allowed 19 runs and and 25 hits in that stretch. But he was worth 40 FDP in his first start of the year against these Detroit Tigers. Detroit has the second-highest fan rate against righties at 29.2 percent, bringing a meager .281 wOBA and 81 wRC+ to the docket. There's no trusting Shoemaker, but trusting the spot as a GPP dart throw may not be the worst decision.
Top Targets
J.D. Martinez, BOS at BAL ($4,300): That Martinez isn't the top priced bat maybe means I should slot him as a value? He's got a whopping .515 wOBA, 239 wRC+, .408 ISO and 1.237 OPS against righties to date, and is 4-of-6 in his career against Matt Harvey, who is allowing a .363 wOBA to righties against .191 to lefties. I'd expect huge usage, especially for cash lineups, but it's easy to see why.
Nelson Cruz, MIN at DET ($3,900): I expect the Twins will be a very popular stacking option against lefty Tarik Skubal, but he's lasted more than four innings just once, so we may only get two attempts to punish him. There's certainly wasn't anything wrong with Byron Buxton ($4,500) in this spot prior to Thursday's minor injury, and Mitch Garver ($2,700), though cold, offers positive LvR splits. But Cruz looks like a nice medium to build around, sporting a .453 wOBA, reasonable 40.7 percent hard-hit rate, and an unusually low (for him) .212 ISO against lefties.
Ramon Laureano, OAK vs. TB ($3,600): Rays' starter Rich Hill figures to be another popular lefty to attack. There are some stacking options here, which include using Matt Chapman ($3,000), but he's fanning 43.6 percent of the time, and Hill's 6.39 ERA isn't supported by his 3.76 xFIP. But I still want a piece of Oakland, and willll trust Laureano and his .485 wOBA, .375 ISO and 44.1 percent hard-hit rate to provide a return.
Value Bats
Juan Soto, WAS at NYY ($3,500): Soto's timing looked terrible against the Braves in his return from the IL, but he was facing (an albeit shaky) bullpen for one at bat a night. He's obviously not healthy, but should get a start here at DH, giving him 3+ ABs to knock off some rust. The price is so low, it's a borderline free square. Yanks' starter Jameson Taillon is getting pummeled by lefties to date to the tune of a .404 wOBA, having allowed three homers across 29 faced at home.
Kyle Seager, SEA at TEX ($2,900): Seager is plating runs, ranking 10th with 22 RBI to date. He's not a high contact guy, but this looks like a plus spot for him to produce. Rangers' starter Mike Foltynewicz is allowing a .429 wOBA and 1.031 OPS to lefties thus far, including five homers to 64 batters faced. Incredibly small sample, but Seager is 3-of-4 against Folty in his career. A big fly is the ceiling, but that would return 6.4x. That's the ceiling, and while a zero is always possible, 3x feels attainable.
Jordan Luplow, CLE vs. CIN ($2,500): Luplow's average to date isn't hot, but he's proven to be a must use option against lefties, posting a .434 wOBA, 175 wRC+ and .354 ISO against them since 2019. That's a large sample size, and if he slots atop the lineup as expected, he doesn't need more than one trip around the bases to return 3x against soft-tossing Wade Miley.
Stacks to Consider
Yankees vs. Patrick Corbin: Giancarlo Stanton ($3,800), Aaron Judge ($3,700), Aaron Hicks ($2,700)
Corbin was decent in his last outing, but looks like a shell of his former self. He's already allowed seven homers through 23.1 innings, all of which have come to righties, who are posting a .462 wOBA, 1.098 OPS and only a 6.8 percent soft contact rate. Stanton comes in white hot, with multiple hits in six of his seven games entering Thursday, but the lowest wOBA against lefties at .321 (though obviously climbing). Judge on the other hand leads the Yankees with a .520 wOBA and .404 ISO in this spot. Hicks, likely hitting between these two bombers, makes too much sense, offering cap relief and a favorable .399 wOBA/.345 ISO.
Braves vs. Zach Eflin: Ronald Acuna ($4,200), Freddie Freeman ($3,500), Marcell Ozuna ($3,400)
Averaging, $3,700 across this stack, maybe there isn't as much value as the name recognition suggests, but it's a rare opportunity to get last year's MVP, a player who flirted with a triple crown last year...and Ronald Acuna. All three strike out less than 20 percent of the time, and despite current successes or failures, Acuna leads this trio with just a .288 BABIP. Translation - they are collectively overdue for a return to success. There's no BvP success here (12-of-59 combined), and Eflin has been far more vulnerable on the road. Form suggests a bust, but this is a huge upside stack at a discount.
