This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
A pair of elimination games start at 6:07 p.m. EDT. The Braves will be going with a full-on bullpen game, giving us really only three true starters to choose from.
Pitching
Framber Valdez, HOU vs. TAM ($9,500): Given the stats, current form and Astros' momentum, I expected Valdez to be the most popular target Friday, but that was before pricing came out for pitchers. Seeing him as the top-priced arm may give some pause. He's gone at least five frames in all three postseason outings, and only failed to do so once during the regular season. He limited the Rays to four hits and two runs over six frames earlier in the series, striking out eight. That's where there's some upside, as Valdez averaged 9.7 Ks/9 during the regular season, and the Rays fan 28.5 percent of the time against lefties.
Blake Snell, TAM vs HOU ($9,200): Snell just hasn't been an elite fantasy option this year, largely due to inefficiencies not allowing him to work deep into contests. He needed 105 pitches to work five frames against the Astros in Game 1 and has logged just 15.2 innings across three postseason starts. He has fanned 15 in that stretch and hasn't been hit overly hard, but there's a clear lack of huge upside with only a small chance at a quality start or a win. The Astros didn't hit lefties overly well during the regular season, but they fanned only 19.7 percent of the time.
Dustin May, LAD vs. ATL ($7,800): May profiles as the clear GPP gamble. He's only thrown 4.2 postseason innings, so it's fair to question how late he'll work, but I assume Dave Roberts will roll with him as long as possible. The Braves offense is tops in the league against righties, posting a .363 wOBA and 126 wRC+, fanning 23.6 percent of the time, a number that seems low compared to the eye test. May didn't miss many bats during the regular season, posting just 7.1 Ks/9, and the Braves are also one of the better fastball hitting teams in the league.
Top Targets
Corey Seager, LAD vs. ATL ($4,200): Dodger stacks figure to be popular with the Braves' pitching ambiguity. But that also makes it tough to really break down the matchup, and it's possible some of the big names struggle if they only get one look at an arm. As such, Seager offers a hot bat that comes at a small discount to Mookie Betts and Cody Bellinger. The Dodgers seem to go as Seager goes, as he's 5-for-8 with two homers and two doubles in games where the Dodgers won or were competitive, and 1-for-8 in Games 1 and 4. If you're banking on Los Angeles extending the series, banking on Seager here makes sense.
Randy Arozarena, TAM vs. HOU ($3,700): This is all too obvious, but I'm not really doing my job if I just omit Arozarena. He's got a whopping 20 postseason hits in 48 at bats, homering six times. But it's resulted in only eight RBI. That's nitpicking, and FanDuel isn't raising his price to exorbitant levels, making him hard to fade. Just expect high usage.
Ozzie Albies, ATL vs. LAD ($3,700): This is simply a play on a hot bat, as we usually would prefer to target Albies when he's facing a lefty. But he's been dominant against the Dodgers through four games, going 8-of-17 with two homers, a double, four runs and four RBI. An often overlooked piece to the Braves' offense, Albies could come with lower usage.
Value Bats
Brandon Lowe, TAM vs. HOU ($3,400): Finding value in the Rays' lineup is challenging, as most with plus stats against lefties are struggling in the postseason, and they mix their lineup daily. Lowe fits the former, as he posted a .467 wOBA, 206 wRC+ and .420 ISO against lefties during the regular season, but is just 4-of-45 during the postseason. The price is greater than I'd want, but perhaps the homer he hit yesterday gets him going, and he's guaranteed low usage given the form.
Edwin Rios, LAD vs. ATL ($2,400): This probably comes from the Captain Obvious department. Rios has a low floor thanks to a high K rate, but he's got immense power. He's 2-for-8 in this series with two homers and four whiffs. Maybe he's a lazy play, but if he connects for another long ball, that's 18.7 FDP minimum, and nearly an 8x return.
Cristian Pache, ATL vs. LAD ($2,400): Pache doesn't seem like he'll win you any tournaments, but he's not a useless, low-priced bat either. He's quietly earned a hit run and an RBI in three straight, and shown an ability to work counts deep. He's also shown he can run into one with his homer in Game 3. Maybe he's overdue for a zero point day, but right now, it looks like you can plug him in and pay up elsewhere.
Stack to Consider
Astros vs. Blake Snell: Carlos Correa ($3,200), Jose Altuve ($3,900), Alex Bregman ($3,700)
There are multiple angles to take in an Astros stack, and hopefully it's a bit contrarian to the Dodgers. They have bats like Martin Maldonado ($2,800) and Yuli Gurriel ($2,700) that had great regular season numbers against lefties. But bigger names aren't overpriced, so we can probably get a star-studded stack together with minimal effort. Correa has turned it on during the post season, hitting .342 with a .510 wOBA and 235 wRC+, homering six times in 11 games. Altuve, not to be outdone, has five homers, resulting in a .494 wOBA, 225 wRC+ and .341 average. Bregman is the weak link, at least as far as current postseason form, but he's the safest option against lefties, having turned in a wOBA north of .400 and wRC+ of 160+ in four straight seasons.
