This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Wednesday's 10-game main slate features a number of pitchers in play against reasonably tough offenses, which may make hitters a bit harder to find. Prospective owners need not worry, however, as we can still plug in a few cheap stacks to fill out our lineups.
Pitching Overview
Max Scherzer ($12,000) has the strikeout rate and overall skill to be worth a look in any matchup but the former Cy Young Award winner suffered a broken nose Tuesday, leaving his status for the matchup against the Phillies as an open question.
Lucas Giolito's ($11,300) rise in 2019 has been nothing short of stunning, as the 24-year-old now owns the second most effective changeup in the league behind Hyun-Jin Ryu. He has tallied at least 20 DraftKings points in eight consecutive starts. Giolito has a tough task ahead of him Wednesday, however, as the Cubs are a top-10 team against right-handers according to wOBA and ISO.
Rich Hill ($10,300) gives up too many homers for comfort but his combination of strikeouts and groundballs should play well against the Giants, who have logged a .270 wOBA and a 24 percent strikeout rate against southpaws.
Zack Greinke ($9,000) has seen a decline in his strikeouts and groundballs in recent years but he features three above-average pitches in 2019. This should be more than enough to get by the Rockies, who once again hold one of the worst wOBAs in the league on the road.
Kyle Gibson ($8,800) has put up three performances of 30 or more DK points in his last 10 starts but his inability to keep the ball in the yard is a bit troubling for his matchup against the Red Sox, who rate as a top-5 offense against right-handed pitching according to wOBA.
There are reasons to believe that Andrew Heaney's ($8,500) incredible strikeout gains may be here to stay, as a 16 percent swinging strike rate has given rise to the southpaw striking out batters at a 34 percent clip. Like others on this list, Heaney's home run numbers are an issue but he is certainly worthy of consideration as he heads into a matchup against the Blue Jays, who have notched just a .288 wOBA to go along with a 24 percent strikeout rate against lefties.
Daniel Ponce de Leon ($7,800) has struggled with the free pass his entire career but has shown promising strikeout and groundball numbers in his two starts this year. This could make him someone to look at against the hapless Marlins but he is far from a must-play due to the issues with command.
Trevor Williams ($7,300) was having his typical season before succumbing to injury, using his control and ability to keep the ball in the park to post a 3.33 ERA in 54 innings. He will return for the first time in over a month to take on the Tigers, who have tallied the lowest wOBA in the league against right-handed pitchers (.280).
Trevor Richards ($7,100) doesn't have a single skill capable of turning heads but the Cardinals may be the most exploitable team in baseball at the moment. They were shut out in their first two games against the Marlins and now carry a .284 wOBA in the last calendar month.
Key Values
Ketel Marte ($5,300) may not be the first name that comes to mind when one thinks of a power hitter but the 25-year-old has mashed against both righties and lefties in 2019, resulting in a .276 ISO in 294 at-bats. Meanwhile, Jon Gray has tallied a 4.66 xFIP against lefty hitters so far this season.
Adam Plutko has been hit hardest by righties in his 23.1 innings this season but advanced metrics tell us that trend may reverse itself, as he has logged a 5.89 xFIP against lefties over that span. Shin-Soo Choo ($5,000) has dominated his opposite hand in 2019, as evidenced by the .267 ISO and .401 wOBA he has kept in 195 at-bats.
David Freese ($4,700) has quietly mashed when in the lineup this season, resulting in a .306 ISO in 111 at-bats. He is likely to get the start against southpaw Drew Pomeranz, who has been handled by righty hitters to the tune of a .545 slugging percentage against.
Jordan Luplow ($4,500) has put on an absolute clinic against lefty pitching, as evidenced by the .415 ISO he has logged in 65 at-bats. Joseph Palumbo has thrown the ball reasonably well in Double-A Frisco but his inability to command the baseball could lead to severe issues up and down the lineup.
Aaron Sanchez holds a walk rate over 12 percent against both sides of the platoon and carries a 1.3 HR/9 rate against lefty hitters. This should bode well for Kole Calhoun ($4,400) who has notched a .256 ISO and 11 percent walk rate against right-handed pitchers.
Jordan Zimmermann has notched an xFIP over 5.00 against both righties and lefties. This allows us to hone in on a player like Kevin Newman ($4,000) who has notched a .366 wOBA against righty pitchers.
Stacks
Dodgers against Drew Pomeranz (Giants)
David Freese (1B - $4,700) Justin Turner (3B - $4,100) Chris Taylor (2B/OF -$3,300)
The Dodgers are a fantastic offense to stack Wednesday, as we can find a few cheap right-handed options to play against the struggling Pomeranz. Taylor needs to be seen as the real prize here, however, as he has notched a .230 ISO against lefty pitchers in 87 at-bats.
Rangers against Adam Plutko (Indians)
Shin-Soo Choo (OF - $5,000) Ronald Guzman (1B - $3,600) Asdrubal Cabrera (3B -$4,100)
It's a shame that the Rangers lefty-heavy lineup doesn't allow us to take advantage of Plutko's awful numbers against righties but the powerful lefty hitters should bring those problems shown in the advanced metrics to bear.
