This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
A smaller, eight-game slate is featured in Wednesday's main slate, which gets under way at 7:05 et, and for the time being, appears weather concern free.
Pitching Overview
Justin Verlander ($11,300) headlines, and faces an up and down Brewers lineup that ranks 10th with a .330 wOBA against righties, but fans 25.1 percent of the time. His 19.2 DKP in his last outing was his lowest total in his past 10 starts, showing how stable he is. Verlander is a rock solid option where you can afford him, and there's no reason to fade.
Mike Soroka ($10,900) and Jose Berrios ($10,300) are the only other five-figure options. Soroka has been a machine, having allowed more than one run only once all season, but his 7.9 K/9 paired with Pittsburgh's 20.5 percent K rate against righties leaves plenty to be desired. Low ceiling, stable floor. Berrios has gone for 18.4 DKP or more in three straight, but has failed to go for seven innings in any of those outings. The start before this stretch; a 9.7 DKP showing against these Mariners where he allowed four runs in 4.2 frames. Seattle, while struggling to win games, still ranks 11th with a .328 wOBA. Personally, I'd rather pay for Verlander than save some for these two.
Joey Lucchesi ($9,600) is going to be very popular. He's been worth 20.8 DKP or more in three of his last five, with a floor of 13.1, and faces a Giants offense that ranks last with a .270 wOBA and .113 ISO against lefties. The form paired with the opponent makes him a target in all formats. The game has a low 7.5 run total, so it would make sense to at least give Giants starter Shaun Anderson ($6,600) some consideration for your second SP slot.
Pitching options fall off the cliff in this smaller slate, which could force many to pay up for two top options. If that's not your flavor, Miles Mikolas ($7,200) figures to be a trendy second choice. The Marlins are always a target when in need of a plus-pitching matchup, and while Mikolas has been highly volatile, he at least gets the league's worst offense against righties, as Miami posts only a .281 wOBA against them. His win probability is seemingly bolstered by the presence of Jordan Yamamoto ($7,500) as his adversary, who will be making his MLB debut and has never pitched above Double-A.
It's a nasty slate for secondary arms, so I wouldn't find fault in rolling with Daniel Norris ($5,000) against Kansas City. He's fanned 15 over his last 16.2 innings and gets a Royals side that whiffs 25.5 percent of the time against lefties while posting a .276 wOBA. He could give 10+ DKP at a very minor cost.
Key Chalk/Value
In keeping with the theme of bad secondary pitching Wednesday to target, we see Edwin Jackson ($5,300) throwing at Camden Yards where the ball flies. Jackson has an 11.90 ERA and 8.43 FIP, and it's fair to question why he's still a rotational option. Jackson's struggles are going to make the O's bats highly targeted, but their splits against righties aren't ideal, which leaves them as a chalky play for me rather than a full stack. Trey Mancini ($5,000) and Steve Wilkerson ($3,600) are my preferred choices here. The game has a total of 11, and we'll have more on the Blue Jays below.
Cardinals bats figure to be targeted frequently as well against the aforementioned Yamamoto in his debut. Marcell Ozuna ($5,400) appears worth the price, boasting a team-best .377 wOBA and .278 ISO. Matt Wieters ($3,500) is well worth the risk if starting, while Paul DeJong ($4,400) is a sound fallback choice.
Minnesota bats are in the discussion on a nightly basis, but Mariners' long-relief option Tomy Milone ($6,900) has been pretty decent, carrying a 3.10 ERA and 4.20 xFIP. Still, the Twins have been terrific against lefties. Mitch Garver ($5,100) leads the way with a .507 wOBA, 225 wRC+ and .313 ISO. C.J. Cron ($4,500) goes .477/205/.404, Nelson Cruz ($4,800) .443/181/.424 and Byron Buxton ($4,600) .431/174/.277. That success is difficult to fade.
The first two games of the Phillies-Diamondbacks series have seen a total of 32 runs scored, suggesting the total of 9.5 may be low. Neither starter, Philly's Zach Eflin ($8,700) or Arizona's Merrill Kelly ($8,000) is imposing, so shares on both sides are in order. Jay Bruce ($5,200) has been fantastic since coming over from Seattle, while Scott Kingery ($4,300) and Rhys Hoskins ($4,400) have favorable splits against righties and aren't costly. The D'Backs side isn't as obvious, as their best options against righties aren't regulars, so we don't have a huge sample size. That said, Kevin Cron ($4,000) and Alex Avila ($3,700) are options if in the lineup. David Peralta ($4,400) has a .393 wOBA and .281 ISO against opposite-handed arms, giving him stand alone value.
Stacks
Blue Jays vs. David Hess
Justin Smoak (1B - $4,800), Eric Sogard (2B - $4,900), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3B, $4,200)
I'd expect the Jays to be as chalky as I think the Orioles will be in this matchup of bad, bad pitchers, but the Jays seem to set up better for a stack, and/or have better statistical matchups. Hess has an awful 10.57 home ERA, pseudo-supported by a 9.10 FIP and 6.72 xFIP. Smoak is the very clear anchor, leading the Jays with a .394 wOBA and .280 ISO. The remaining pieces can be interchangeable, as Sogard's less than stellar .339 wOBA ranks second on the team, though his 12.6 percent K rate at least gives him chances nightly. Guerrero is a feast or famine option better suited for GPPs.
Braves vs. Mitch Keller (Pirates)
Freddie Freeman (1B - $5,600), Nick Markakis (OF - $4,100), Tyler Flowers (C - $3,600)
Atlanta has launched 10 homers in their two games since returning home, and there's plenty of power to choose from in this lineup. Freeman leads the team with a .420 wOBA and .290 ISO. Flowers .349 wOBA isn't awful from the C position, and he's due a start with Brian McCann ($3,500) having caught three nights in a row. Following a day of rest Sunday, Markakis suddenly has five hits in his last seven at bats, including two long balls. Keller allowed six runs in four innings in his last appearance.
Tigers vs. Danny Duffy (Royals)
Nick Castellanos (OF - $4,100), Miguel Cabrera (1B - $3,600), Ronny Rodriguez (2B/SS - $3,600)
This is obviously a low exposure, GPP gamble only. And truthfully, I've touched on most other offenses already in the column, so a third stacking option required a deep dive. The Tigers will largely be overlooked, but Duffy has allowed a long ball in three straight and 10 runs over his last 7.2 innings. Yes, Cabrera is a shell of his former self, but he still has a .488 wOBA, 214 wRC+ and .290 ISO against southpaws. Castellanos is having a down year, but goes .371/134/.237 against lefties, and Rodriguez's .320 ISO gives him power potential to offset a .336 wOBA. They are cheap and will certainly be low owned.
