This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
There are a couple high-end pitchers on the slate, but neither may be worth the money. With the majority of games on Wednesday night having over/unders of at least nine runs, it makes sense to go with mid-range pitching and some bigger bats.
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PITCHER
Robbie Ray, ARI at MIA ($10,000): Ray could be on a limited pitch count in his first start off the DL, but that may not matter and that also means he won't be widely owned. He has a 36.3 K% in six starts and that could lead to seven or eight strikeouts against Miami even in limited time. The Marlins are one of the worst in MLB against southpaws with a 22.4 K%, .103 ISO and .273 wOBA since May 1.
GPP Fade: Madison Bumgarner, SF vs. COL ($11,200): Bumgarner returned to normal in eight scoreless innings last time out, but his price jumped too much. He had nine total strikeouts in his first three starts before punching out eight Padres in his most recent outing. That makes him a risky play even as a favorite. The Rockies have the lowest K% (17.7) and a solid ISO (.194) and wOBA (.354) against lefties since the beginning of May.
Cheap GPP Consideration: Shane Bieber, CLE at STL ($8,400): I never thought I'd write about Bieber, but he won me over last start going seven scoreless. Even if he doesn't get there again, his strikeout potential gives him a nice floor with 22 Ks in his three starts. The Cardinals are near the bottom with a 23.5 K% and .311 wOBA against righties in the last month.
CATCHER
Jonathan Lucroy, OAK at DET ($2,800): Lucroy doesn't cost much and gets on base at a consistent rate with a .347 BABIP against righties. That's all you need at this price and his value is enhanced against a struggling Mike Fiers. The righty hurler has given up seven runs in his last two starts and has a rough .351 wOBA allowed to righties after being at .360 last season.
FIRST BASE
Paul Goldschmidt, ARI at MIA ($5,400): Goldschmidt is my big play of the day with a .403 ISO and .465 wOBA in 91 plate appearances against southpaws, which isn't far from his career .278 ISO and .434 wOBA. On the mound, Wei-Yin Chen is having issues with 23 hits and 14 runs allowed in his last three outings. His early 6.47 xFIP against righty bats is ugly and the same goes for his career 4.38 xFIP.
SECOND BASE
Ketel Marte, ARI at MIA ($3,600): Goldschmidt provides the power, while Marte supplies the value with a career best .366 wOBA in 106 plate appearances against lefties. He should keep that going against Chen, who hasn't figured out righty bats this year with a troubling 0.5 K-BB% and .398 OBP allowed.
THIRD BASE
Eduardo Escobar, MIN at CWS ($4,700): Escobar is in a mini-slump and James Shields is the one to get him out of it. The righty hurler hasn't been terrible this year, but he hasn't been good with a 5.27 xFIP against lefty bats and that showed up a few weeks ago against the Twins when Escobar last homered. Escobar has done most of his damage against righties this year with 10 home runs and a .372 BABIP.
SHORTSTOP
Nick Ahmed, ARI at MIA ($3,400): Here's another Arizona infielder against arguably the worst pitcher on the slate. Ahmed, like his teammates, has much better numbers against lefty arms with a .273 ISO and .378 wOBA, which is near his career .336 wOBA. Chen has a 6.71 ERA and career .336 wOBA allowed to righties, making these two a match.
OUTFIELD
Stephen Piscotty, OAK at DET ($3,700): Piscotty's much better against righty arms with a .350 BABIP and overall .373 BABIP in June. He's not a big power hitter, but has a worthy .162 ISO against righties in his career and that could work against Fiers, who has allowed a home run in all but one start this year following 2017's 1.98 HR/9 against righties.
Nick Williams, PHI vs. NYY ($3,600): Williams can hit both kinds of pitchers and has more power against righty arms with a .214 ISO and .343 wOBA the last two seasons. Luis Cessa only has four appearances out of the bullpen this year, but has 14 starts the previous couple seasons and poor numbers to show for it with a 4.34 xFIP against lefties.
Guillermo Heredia, SEA at BAL ($2,600): Heredia isn't guaranteed to start, but with a righty on the mound, he should. Most of Heredia's success comes against righty arms with a .329 BABIP. He's worth a gamble because Alex Cobb always has the chance to get lit up with a 6.56 ERA and .368 wOBA allowed to righties.
