This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Wednesday is dominated by day games, with seven games on the afternoon slate as opposed to only four at night. In a break from the norm, we'll highlight plays from both contest times. Overall, there are a lot of strong starting pitchers set to take the hill, so roster rates are likely to condense around the hitters who are squaring off against the relatively poorer arms. That'll be important to keep in mind when constructing cash vs. tournament lineups.
Pitchers
Afternoon Pitchers
The matinee matchups feature a number of big-name arms, such as Max Scherzer ($10,100), Aaron Nola ($9,700) and Clayton Kershaw ($9,200). Scherzer and Nola face off against each other and both pitched six innings in their opening start. Of the duo, I'd opt for Scherzer. He has a superior strikeout rate historically and is priced close enough to Nola that there isn't a significant benefit to paying down.
Whether looking for an SP2 or looking for savings the top pitching slot, Adam Wainwright ($8,700) is a solid choice. He also showed the ability to pitch deep into games, working six frames in his initial start. He'll square off against the Royals, who have made a lot of contact early in the season but struggled to produce much power (.062 ISO).
Despite the merits of Wainwright, I'd prefer Nathan Eovaldi ($8,200). Eovaldi has more strikeout upside in his game, and he'll face the Tigers. Through five games, the Detroit lineup has struck out at a 28.9 percent clip – second-highest in the league.
Kyle Hendricks ($6,600) will be extremely popular but is a good value play thanks to his matchup against Pittsburgh. Hendricks suffered through a poor 2021 season (11.1 K-BB%, 4.70 SIERA), but he looked sharp in his first outing of the season. The Pirates have been mediocre in metrics such as wOBA and ISO, though the majority of their production came in one game against Steven Matz.
Night Pitchers
Shifting to the four night games, Corbin Burnes ($9,600) is the top option thanks to a matchup against Baltimore. Though he wasn't sharp against the Cubs on Friday, it's premature to write off the 2021 NL Cy Young winner. Of course, Robbie Ray ($9,400) and Gerrit Cole ($9,200) are always viable options, though they face an increased degree of difficulty by squaring off against the White Sox and Blue Jays, receptively.
Shifting down in price point, Shane McClanahan ($7,500) is a noteworthy option. He racked up seven strikeouts in his first start, so he can compile DK points even in the likelihood that his pitch count remains capped. He faces Oakland, which is an easy matchup on paper. However, the Athletics have put up 21 runs across the first two games of their series against the Rays. That could actually drive McClanahan's roster rate down, making him an even more desirable option to target.
For those really looking for savings, consider John Means ($6,000). He got into some trouble against the Rays in his start Friday, but put up 12.8 DK points thanks to five strikeouts across four innings. He should be more stretched out for his second outing of the season against the Brewers. Milwaukee does boast a fairly strong order, with hitters who can take advantage of lefties, but Means' minimal price tag makes the risk more palatable.
Top Targets
Afternoon Targets
Josiah Gray has allowed at least one home run in 12 of his 14 major-league appearances, and multiple long balls on five occasions. He'll take on Atlanta on Wednesday, so rostering the likes of Matt Olson ($5,300), Austin Riley ($5,000) and even Marcell Ozuna ($4,400) or Adam Duvall ($4,000) makes sense.
Power hitters in Cincinnati also make for interesting targets given the favorable park for home runs and a matchup against Triston McKenzie. McKenzie tends to give up home runs in bunches, as he allowed multiple balls to leave the yard in six of his 24 outings in 2021. Tyler Naquin ($3,700) launched his first home run of the season Tuesday, but I don't mind going back to him based on his strong quality of contact through five games (91.2 mpg average exit velocity).
Night Targets
Mitch Haniger ($4,600) hasn't gotten off to a fast start to the 2022 campaign. However, he'll step into the box against Dallas Keuchel, who stands out as the worst pitcher on the later set of games. Haniger also posted a .286 ISO against southpaws in 2021.
There aren't obvious pitchers to target among the based on skill, though John Means allowed 1.8 HR/9 in 2021. The Brewers have a number of hitters who can take advantage, most prominent of which is the power bat of Hunter Renfroe ($5,000).
Value Plays
Afternoon Values
Josh Bell ($3,200) is underpriced. He doesn't face a favorable matchup against Max Fried, and historically Bell has been worst against left-handed pitching. However, he's hit third or fourth in every game this season, and is likely to come to bat with runners on base at some point with at Juan Soto and (potentially) Nelson Cruz hitting ahead of him.
Steven Kwan ($3,400) has taken the season-long fantasy crowd by storm, though DraftKings doesn't seem to have caught on yet. Kwan doesn't have the highest upside, but he is a tremendous contact hitter, which gives him the chance to reach base a few times. That alone is enough to play him at this price point, let alone if he picks up some counting stats along the way.
Night Values
Keston Hiura ($3,200) has started at first base with a lefty on the mound, so he should be in the lineup Wednesday night. The case for targeting Milwaukee power hitters was laid out in the Top Targets section. Hiura has a lot of swing and miss in his game, but when he makes contact, it tends to be loud (career 13.7 percent barrel rate).
Trey Mancini ($2,700) has produced little early on in 2022, but he has two barreled balls already. The matchup isn't favorable against Corbin Burnes, but as was discussed there aren't many vulnerable pitchers to choose from.
Seattle is the clear team to pick from based on matchup, but most of their best hitters are priced up. Two young guns aren't in Jarred Kelenic ($3,500) and Julio Rodriguez ($3,400). Rostering them would give exposure to a positive matchup at a reasonable price, so they become more attractive options than on a typical night with 10-to-15 games.
Stacks to Consider
Afternoon Stacks
Cincinnati Reds vs. Triston McKenzie: Jonathan India ($4,600), Tyler Naquin ($3,700), Tommy Pham ($3,400), Joey Votto ($4,800)
The homer woes of McKenzie have already been discussed, but he also has a career 10.9 BB%. That will help get runners on base, and in turn hopefully make big hits pay off with runners on base. The downside to stacking against McKenzie is that he does strike out a lot of hitters, so if he avoids both homers and walks he is likely to dominate. The majority of the Cincinnati lineup has admittedly gotten off to a slow start, but that has driven their price points down and is likely to make them less popular.
Atlanta vs. Josiah Gray: Eddie Rosario ($4,500), Matt Olson ($5,300), Austin Riley ($5,000), Adam Duvall ($4,300)
Atlanta is an attractive stack due to Gray's extreme home run problem. For that reason, Atlanta will remain be a very popular option. One way to work around that is to roster players at the bottom of the order who will be cheap and not garner less attention. For example, Guillermo Heredia ($2,500) hit eighth on Tuesday. In addition to the savings and ability to differentiate lineups, hitters at the bottom of the order can benefit relative to their price if they reach base and have the best hitters hitting immediately behind them. Rostering pitchers who are projected to be unpopular or pairing an Atlanta stack with a less popular stack is a more straightforward way to achieve the same goal.
Also consider: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Zach Greinke: Dylan Carlson ($4,600), Paul Goldschmidt ($5,500), Tyler O'Neill ($4,800), Nolan Arenado ($5,100)
Night Stacks
Seattle Mariners vs. Dallas Keuchel: Ty France ($4,200), Jesse Winker ($5,400), Mitch Haniger ($4,600), Abraham Toro ($4,100)
Keuchel racked up just a 13.2 percent strikeout rate in 2021, so expect Seattle to make a lot of contact. Rostering the middle of the lineup isn't all that expensive, so pairing this stack with other value options should still make the top pitching options affordable. The primary downside to this option is that it is the most obvious way to build a lineup on the main slate.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Frankie Montas: Brandon Lowe ($5,700), Wander Franco ($5,500), Ji-Man Choi ($3,900), Josh Lowe ($2,900)
This stack is more about the benefits of the Rays' lineup as opposed to targeting Montas, who has proven to be a quality pitcher. Assuming the batting order remains consistent, this stack is the 1-2-3-5 hitters and is less expensive than the Mariners. While it may be a popular play, the combination may not get as much attention due to the team's surprisingly poor performances in the first two games of the series against Oakland -- though that was more related to pitching than hitting.
Also Consider: Milwaukee vs. John Means: Andrew McCutchen ($4,800), Willy Adames ($4,700), Hunter Renfroe ($5,000), Keston Hiura ($3,200)
