This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Do not use Chris Sale on Tuesday.
He's only scheduled to pitch two innings against Toronto, which is not reflected in his price ($13,600) on DraftKings. The Red Sox are gradually stretching Sale out following his absence with a shoulder injury, with the hope of getting him back to a typical starter's workload by the end of the month. It makes more sense to leverage low Toronto hitter prices with the hope that they'll knock around some of the Boston long and middle relievers after Sale's early exit.
Tuesday brings another Coors game into the fold, but with an ace pitching on one side (Zack Greinke), the case for fading is a little bit stronger than usual.
Ultimately, it all comes down to how much you choose to spend on pitching.
There are plenty of low-end arms available to pick on, including Bryan Mitchell, Odrisamer Despagine, Adrian Sampson, Dylan Covey, and Tyler Duffey, and that doesn't even account for solid matchups for the Red Sox (home against Ryan Borucki) and the Astros (road against Jordan Zimmermann).
As noted throughout the season, I generally don't write up the most expensive bats, since it should be fairly obvious that the overwhelming majority of those players are fine plays if the budget allows you to utilize them.
I'm making a concerted effort to indicate the type of contest I prefer to use players in -- cash (50/50) or tournaments (GPPs) -- which is generally an exercise in estimating ownership rates (or "finding the chalk") and making sure to have enough variation around the highly-coveted top value plays to have a dangerous lineup.
A strong cash-game play isn't necessarily a "bad" tournament play, but too many "chalky" players can create a limiting factor in big-field tournaments.
Your constructive feedback is appreciated, and always welcomed.
For those interested, we've started an MLB DFS Slack channel for paid RotoWire subscribers. (There is a season-long one as well.) To join those channels, e-mail support@rotowire.com.
Pitchers
Jacob deGrom, NYM vs. MIA ($13,500) -- Rain delays have likely cost deGrom one start between now and the end of the season. If the parade of postponements comes to a halt Tuesday, paying up for deGom -- especially in tournaments is a preferred strategy of mine. It will likely require lighter exposure to the D-backs-Rockies matchup in Colorado, but with Zack Greinke taking the ball for Arizona, that becomes an easier plan to follow. deGrom has been the best pitcher in the National League this season, and while he may miss out on the Cy Young award for things out of his control (run support, bullpen help), he's been delivering value on a near-nightly basis despite elevated prices. In cash games, there is nothing wrong with deGrom, but the limited exposure to Arizona bats against Antonio Senzatela might be enough to simply pay down for Miles Mikolas instead.
Miles Mikolas, STL vs. PIT ($7,600) -- Mikolas has been getting knocked around in recent weeks, with only one good start in his last five, and two starts in which he's been tagged for 12 hits. The Cardinals are trending toward must-win situations on a nightly basis, and with a home matchup against Pittsburgh, they're a -145 favorite on the moneyline Tuesday. If Mikolas can provide a quality start and a win, and check in close to 20 points at his low price, he'll be good enough in cash games to open up several combos of cash-game friendly bats.
Mike Fiers, OAK at BAL ($9,400) -- Fiers might look like a cash play as a big favorite (-195) against a bad team (the Orioles), but he's on the road, and Fiers' track record highlights the increased variance he brings to the mound on a nightly basis. While he's been near or above 20 points in four of his last five starts (including a 33.95-point gem against Texas), he's been in the red once and failed to reach double-digits on another occasion within his last seven starts. I'm more comfortable with him in tournaments, but this slate might be quirky enough to steer you toward using him as a cash-game alternative to Mikolas.
There are two other pitchers that are interesting for a few different reasons…
Zack Greinke, ARI at COL ($8,000) -- Greinke in Coors should be low-owned, and his low price, he doesn't have to be elite to make value. As much as the Rockies have struggled against right-handed pitching through 2018, throwing any pitcher in Coors Field brings the usual amount of increased risk.
Mike Foltynewicz, ATL at SF ($11,2000) -- Folty draws the league's worst offense over the last 30 days with a road trip to face the Giants. The five-digit price might deter some from paying up for him, which could leave him with a reasonable ownership rate despite the layup of a matchup. There is plenty to like here, as Foltynewicz has been regularly pitching deep into his starts, while missing plenty of bats. He'll enter Tuesday's start with a 1.91 ERA and 0.85 WHIP over his last five starts (34:9 K:BB, 33 IP, four quality starts).
Summary: With Colorado games on the slate, deGrom almost requires fading Coors. At the very least, you'll have to pair him with a cheap arm like Mikolas to balance things out anyway. If you're feeling particularly lucky, a Greinke-Fiers duo should open up some Arizona bats against Antonio Senzatela. Make no mistake, this is one of the more difficult Tuesday night pitching slates we've seen this year, so it could be a very run-heavy night for the offenses.
Catcher
Gary Sanchez, NYY at MIN ($4,100) -- Catcher is gross again Tuesday, and with J.T. Realmuto priced up near $5K against Jacob deGrom, it's another Sanchez vs. Willson Contreras night, with the pivots at Coors looming if things break the right way (they probably won't on the Arizona side, since Jeff Mathis figures to catch Zack Greinke). As Sanchez goes, the 2018 season has been a strange one, and while he remains below the Mendoza line as the midpoint of September draws closer, he's provided power as expected when he's been healthy enough to play. He'll face Twins right-hander Tyler Duffey on Tuesday, and there's really nothing to fear about that matchup.
The park factors are suboptimal, but Tyler Flowers ($3,400) becomes a useful cheap option if he's given the start over Kurt Suzuki against lefty Andrew Suarez in San Francisco.
First Base
Jay Bruce, NYM vs. MIA ($3,800) -- Injuries have limited Bruce to 76 games this season, and within the those 76 games, he may have been playing through a significant injury for a large portion of them. He's looked more like the projected version in recent weeks, however, carrying a .277/.358/.532 line with three homers and six RBI since returning from the disabled list in late August. Marlins starter Jose Urena has shown signs of improving his effectiveness against left-handed hitters this season, but his 12.6% K% against lefties since the start of 2016 and 1.36 HR/9 allowed during that span is enough to take the chance on Bruce at this price, weather permitting of course, Tuesday night.
Second Base
Kolten Wong, STL vs. PIT ($3,700) -- Wong is better suited as a cash-game lineup filler than a GPP consideration, in part because he has such limited power. In any case, he's moved up to the No. 6 spot in the order for each of the Cards' last two games, and a slight ascent into a more run-producing friendly spot makes him more interesting. Since the Cardinals dismissed Mike Matheny prior to the All-Star break, Wong is hitting .329/.396/.447 (130 wRC+) with a homer, 12 RBI and three steals during that span. If you're looking for a higher-risk, higher potential reward option, Yoan Moncada ($3,900) draws Royals Rule 5 pick Brad Keller in Kansas City on Tuesday night.
Third Base
Kyle Seager, SEA vs. SD ($3,400) -- There have been a few occasions this season in which I've decided to roll the dice on Seager at his deflated price, and the results have been understandably mixed. It seems almost certain that we'll learn of an underreported (or completely unreported) injury that has caused his production to fall off a cliff in 2018 once the season comes to a close. Even with that, I'm willing to take one more shot at the discounted Seager for a matchup against Padres starter Bryan Mitchell, whose extremely low strikeout rate against lefties (14.4% since 2016) makes him a huge liability against the Seattle offense Tuesday night.
If you've gone down this road too many times before, I understand. Taylor Ward is an interesting GPP consideration at $3,200 with a matchup against Rangers starter Adrian Sampson, and Renato Nunez ($3,700) offers a cheap power option against Mike Fiers and the A's if you're not rolling with Fiers as one of your two arms.
Shortstop
Jorge Polanco, MIN vs. NYY ($3,800) -- The Twins have been using Polanco in the top four spots of their batting order over the past month, and as sub-$4K options on DraftKings go, it's hard to find a lot of inspiring options most nights. Since his return from a PED suspension in July, Polanco's overall production (.274/.329/.403) is nothing to write home about. Perhaps a stint in the bullpen has fixed Sonny Gray (1.83 ERA, 17:7 K:BB over his last 19.2 innings), or perhaps he's just going to pull the rug out from underneath everybody who gets sucked into believing in him again. In any event, Polanco's power-speed combo, high lineup placement, and favorable enough matchup make him viable at this price.
Outfield
Franmil Reyes, SD at SEA ($3,800) -- Reyes has huge power, and it's been on full display in recent weeks. Mariners lefty Marco Gonzales is making his first start since going on the DL with a neck injury, which could limit his overall workload, and reduce his effectiveness. More importantly, Reyes is cheap, and he's inched up in the batting order with consecutive starts from the No. 5 spot Saturday and Sunday as part of a stretch of nine straight starts in right field for San Diego. Since debuting with the Padres earlier this season, Reyes has put together a .333/.418/.688 line against left-handed pitching.
Justin Upton, LAA vs. TEX ($4,000) -- Cheap exposure to a 26-year-old who spent most of the season in the Pacific Coast League? Sign me up. Kole Calhoun ($3,800) will get a lot of attention as well, and while they're not stackable most days because they don't hit back-to-back in the order, Upton might be a slightly lower-owned option as a standalone play for those who aren't stacking up Halos bats against Sampson as part of a Coors fade. Consider Upton only in tournaments, however, as he's been more of a feast-or-famine power option recently with a .292/.333/.542 line, five homers, 16 RBI and a 2:23 BB:K over the last 30 games.
Kevin Pillar, TOR at BOS ($3,300) -- With Chris Sale only penciled in for two innings, the Red Sox will need several relievers to bridge the gap to the late innings. As a result, Pillar's matchup is much more favorable than it appears at a glance, making him a potentially sneaky play in the outfield at a bargain-basement price. There is a threat of rain at Fenway on Tuesday, which could complicate things depending on how the forecast shapes up later in the afternoon, but keep an eye on the lineup placement of Pillar and teammate Billy McKinney if you're looking for a cheap option in the outfield for a game with a higher than usual over/under total (8.5) thanks to Sale's scheduled early exit.
