This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Tuesday brings another great pitching slate, with two aces squaring off against each other, and several others to consider building around.
Additionally, with the Rockies on the road, paying up for two quality arms without having to fade Coors is possible.
The challenge will be finding cheap bats without tough pitching matchups, however, and a lot of interest will be concentrated on a few of the weaker arms including:
- Dodgers at Rangers (Ariel Jurado)
- Red Sox vs. Marlins (Jose Urena)
- Yankees vs. White Sox (James Shields)
- Brewers at Reds (both sides against Junior Guerra & Anthony DeSclafani)
- Blue Jays at Orioles (Josh Rogers)
As noted throughout the last month or so, I generally don't write up the most expensive bats, since it should be fairly obvious that the overwhelming majority of those players are fine plays if the budget allows you to utilize them.
I'm making a concerted effort to indicate the type of contest I prefer to use players in -- cash (50/50) or tournaments (GPPs) -- which is generally an exercise in estimating ownership rates (or "finding the chalk") and making sure to have enough variation around the highly-coveted top value plays to have a dangerous lineup.
A strong cash-game play isn't necessarily a "bad" tournament play, but too many "chalky" players can create a limiting factor in big-field tournaments.
Your constructive feedback is appreciated, and always welcomed.
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Pitchers
Max Scherzer ($12,600) and Aaron Nola ($10,600), WAS at PHI -- Scherzer and Nola square off again Tuesday, after Scherzer took the loss in the same matchup Thursday thanks to a two-run homer from Odubel Herrera. Other than four walks, the homer was the only blemish for Scherzer, while Nola fired eight scoreless innings with nine strikeouts to get the win. All of the same concerns apply for both -- they lower each other's win probability -- but the makeup of this slate paired with the circumstances of facing each other should keep the ownership rates reasonable for those who want to use either of them in tournaments.
Jack Flaherty, STL vs. PIT ($10,400) -- Flaherty looks like the Cards' ace right now, having reeled off a stretch with at least seven strikeouts in each of his last seven starts. During that span, he's allowed more than three runs runs just once, and he'll carry a four-start quality start streak into Tuesday's matchup. Earlier this season, the Pirates were tempering strikeouts enough to be somewhat careful about using starters against them. Over the last 30 days, the Pirates have an 85 wRC+ (tied for 25th in MLB) with a 22.1% K%.
Carlos Carrasco, CLE vs. MIN ($10,300) -- In a scheduling miracle, Carrasco pitches against the Twins every Tuesday and Friday. I'm not sure how it happens, but it seems like I'm writing about him facing Minnesota on a weekly basis this season. A meltdown in Fenway last time out (six runs -- five earned in 3.2 IP) might scare some owners away, but that start snapped a stretch of six straight outings in which he logged at least six innings and posted at least six strikeouts. At home, and as a -235 favorite on the moneyline, Carrasco is one of the most likely starters to pick up a win Tuesday night.
Walker Buehler, LAD at TEX ($10,200) -- Buehler might slip under the radar somewhat because this pitching slate is loaded, and because he's in a matchup that features an over/under total of 11. Most of the damage should come against Rangers starter Ariel Jurado, which will likely make the Dodgers the most stacked team of the night. Like Flaherty, Buehler is dialed in recently, having posted a 38:9 K:BB with four earned runs allowed over his last five starts (32.1 IP).
Cole Hamels, CHC vs. NYM ($9,800) -- The Mets have been dreadful against left-handed pitching all season, and Hamels has looked like a new man since getting acquired by the Cubs in July, posting a 0.79 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in five starts with his new club. The price here is very reasonable, in large part, because the win probability comes down a lot with Jacob deGrom getting the start for the Mets.
Charlie Morton, HOU vs. OAK ($9,500) Like Carrasco, Morton enters Tuesday's matchup as a heavy favorite (-200), as Vegas seems content to believe that the Astros' healthy lineup is going to overwhelm A's starter Edwin Jackson. Brett Anderson was knocked around the second time through the order by the Houston bats Monday, and it's reasonable to expect the Astros to provide ample run support with the likes of George Springer, Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa all back in the fold after second-half DL stint. Morton is still flashing tournament-winning upside on occasion, which makes him viable in all formats, but the relatively low price might drive up the ownership rate despite a matchup against an Oakland offense that leads MLB with a 119 wRC+ over the last 30 days. In short, Morton's situation as a pitcher skilled enough to win a tournament, but priced to be used in a cash-game scenario in spite of a tough matchup.
Madison Bumgarner, SF vs. ARI ($9,000) -- Bumgarner delivered a vintage performance against the Mets in his last turn, fanning eight and allowing just one run on five hits over eight innings in a winning effort, in what was essentially his second-best start of 2018. He's faced the D-backs twice this season, turning in passable performances, but nothing to write home about in those outings -- including his least productive start of the season at home. Despite facing a team making a run at the NL West crown, Bumgarner at home against Clay Buchholz is a nice option since some of the most heavily favored teams (Red Sox and Yankees) have lower-end starters (Brian Johnson, and Lance Lynn, respectively) taking the ball.
Brian Johnson, BOS vs. MIA ($7,000) -- Johnson faces a Marlins offense with a league-worst 67 wRC+ over the last 30 days. The Red Sox are heavy favorites, but the concern here is that Johnson has completed six innings on just one occasion this season in 10 starts. He's the ultra-cheap tournament consideration of the day for the low-entry fee, big-field GPP lineup builder seeking a high-risk, high-reward option that opens up the highest number of big bats.
Summary: This is a great pitching slate, even with two aces facing off against each other. The easy combo of choice for me is Carrasco and Morton, since it offers a significantly higher win probability than most other pairings. While that might feel more like a cash-game combo than a tournament approach, I would pay up for Flaherty in Morton's place in a tournament scenario, but still keep Carrasco as the other option.
Catcher
Salvador Perez, KC vs. DET ($3,700) -- While there has been some skills growth with Matthew Boyd in recent months, he's still not a pitcher I'm steering away from when the right matchup comes along. Perez is nearly $1,000 cheaper than Yasmani Grandal on Tuesday, and as long as the storms don't hit during game time in Kansas City, Perez should be one of the top plays on the board behind the plate. With Perez, it's all about power, as his .476 SLG against lefties is the fourth-highest slugging percentage split at the catcher position on this slate.
If this games gets washed out, Danny Jansen ($3,900) and Mike Zunino ($3,400) are my preferred pivots under $4K.
First Base
Brandon Belt, SFG vs. ARI ($3,500) -- Clay Buchholz has been one of the many pleasant surprises on the mound in 2018, as he's parlayed a low walk rate (1.8 BB/9) through 80 innings into a 2.25 ERA over 13 starts. Belt's monster first half was ultimately an extension of the improved per-game production he was offering up in 2017, and considering that he hasn't reached double digits on DraftKings since July 21, it's fair to wonder if he's playing at less than 100 percent. Belt's output against righties this season is nearly identical to his results from the previous two (.286/.372/.507), and I'm willing to take the chance at a discounted price in this spot.
Be ready to pounce if Matt Adams ($3,600) gets a spot start against Ivan Nova and the Pirates. The Cards have only given Adams one start since he returned to St. Louis last week.
Second Base
Devon Travis, TOR at BAL ($3,600) -- Since the calendar flipped to August, Travis is been the Jays' No. 2 hitter on a regular basis. Toronto faces Baltimore rookie Josh Rogers in his MLB debut Tuesday, and the book on Rogers is pretty simple. He's a lefty with a fastball that tops out in the low-90s, and a few secondary offerings, but nothing resembling a wipeout pitch. As a result, his success will hinge on his command, and there are reasons to believe that he'll struggle to adjust to big-league hitters in the weeks ahead. Travis' splits against lefties since the start of last season include a .286/.316/.527 line -- giving him in the sixth-highest OPS split among second-base options in play Tuesday.
Third Base
Jeimer Candelario, DET at KC ($3,800) -- As potentially underowned stacks go, I'm a little bit intrigued by the Tigers. If you don't want to take that leap of faith, I understand, but Candelario is among the better plays in the Detroit lineup when you consider that Royals starter Jake Junis has a .346 wOBA allowed to left-handed hitters along with a 1.47 HR/9 in that split since arriving in the big leagues. Entering Tuesday, Candelario has been in the leadoff spot for each of the Tigers' last 14 games. Moreover, hot, humid conditions in Kansas City should boost run production for both lineups if the potential storms in the forecast hold off.
Shortstop
Paul DeJong, STL vs. PIT ($3,900) -- Ivan Nova's struggles against lefties (.364 wOBA, 1.63 HR/9) are much more favorable to target than his splits against righties (.306 wOBA, 1.17 HR/9), but there are few discounted options with significant pop available at the shortstop position, and DeJong has shown plenty of power against same-handed pitching since arriving in St. Louis last season (.492 SLG -- fifth-highest among SS-eligible players on the board Tuesday).
As a sub-$4K alternative, Willy Adames is on the radar against Julio Teheran, who like Nova, has much worse splits against left-handed hitters, but Adames' low position in the Rays' lineup likely limits him to tournament use.
Outfield
Josh Reddick, HOU vs OAK ($3,900) -- The overall challenge with this slate is finding affordable outfielders in matchups that aren't against high-end pitchers. While optimizers should have little difficulty recommending contrarian plays, "safer" cash-game options seem few and far between. Entering play Tuesday, Reddick has collected a hit in six straight games, and while he's underwhelmed overall this season, the Astros are matched up against Edwin Jackson as they continue a key series against Oakland. Jackson's numbers against lefties since 2016 are surprisingly better than his splits against same-handed hitters during that span, but Reddick offers affordable exposure to a lineup that should be among the higher-scoring units in the league on this slate. If Reddick gets a day off, Tony Kemp (also $3,900) is an interesting tournament-only consideration at the same price.
Nicky Delmonico, CHW at NYY ($4,100) -- With four homers in his last nine games, Delmonico is providing a little bit of extra power in the White Sox's lineup down the stretch. With the Yankees starting Lance Lynn, the White Sox have a chance at doing some damage, while their left-handed hitters get a nice park boost on the road at Yankee Stadium. The inflated walk rate that Lynn carried in Minnesota has gone away since he was dealt to New York, but he continues to be very hittable, as seen in his last two turns against the Marlins and Blue Jays (combined 10 runs on 15 hits over 9.1 innings).
Nick Williams, PHI vs. WAS ($3,400) -- There will be an alternative cheap option in the outfield once lineups are revealed, but as contrarian options go for tournaments, Williams against Max Scherzer is my favorite of the bunch. Although his overall slash line has dropped slightly from his rookie line, Williams continues to provide cheap power against right-handed pitching, with a .273/.338/.487 mark and 15 of his 17 homers this season. As great as Scherzer is, he's allowed a 1.24 HR/9 to left-handed hitters since the start of 2016 -- ranking him in the middle of the pack among Tuesday's starters -- and he'll also be navigating the Phillies' lineup in a more hitter-friendly environment with the matchup taking place on the road.
