This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Tuesday brings the MLB debut of Michael Kopech, the White Sox's top pitching prospect, and a young arm capable of making an immediate impact in DFS and season-long lineups.
Weather is a concern in a few areas, so keep an eye on the forecast closer to lock this evening.
The Rockies are home against the Padres, which opens up plenty of desirable pricey hitters to stack for those who take advantage of some of the discounted pitching available. There are other interesting matchups to seek out, including but not limited to…
- Orioles vs. Sam Gaviglio
- A's vs. Ariel Jurado
- Mets vs. Chris Stratton (especially lefties)
- Yankees vs. Pablo Lopez
- Rays vs. Glenn Sparkman
- Brewers vs. Sal Romano (especially lefties)
- Astros vs. Mike Leake
As noted throughout the last month or so, I generally don't write up the most expensive bats, since it should be fairly obvious that the overwhelming majority of those players are fine plays if the budget allows you to utilize them.
I'm making a concerted effort to indicate the type of contest I prefer to use players in -- cash (50/50) or tournaments (GPPs) -- which is generally an exercise in estimating ownership rates (or "finding the chalk") and making sure to have enough variation around the highly-coveted top value plays to have a dangerous lineup.
A strong cash-game play isn't necessarily a "bad" tournament play, but too many "chalky" players can create a limiting factor in big-field tournaments.
Your constructive feedback is appreciated, and always welcomed.
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Pitchers
Michael Kopech, CHW vs. MIN ($7,600) -- Kopech is going to be chalky. A very high-ceiling prospect with a low price tag, pitching at home against a team that moved away a couple key lineup pieces at the trade deadline is the type of debut that only comes around once in a while. Over his last seven starts at Triple-A, Kopech racked up a 59:4 K:BB in 44 innings. He's always and excellent swing-and-miss stuff, and now he appears to have found consistency with his command, which gives him a near-immediate top-of-the-rotation upside. The willingness to use Kopech in a tournament with high ownership comes from the flexibility afforded with the combination of bats you can build around him. There are plenty of viable alternatives, however, if you would rather steer away from the masses right from the start. Also, be sure to keep an eye on the forecast in Chicago, as there is a ~35 percent chance of rain at game time as of 10 am ET.
Patrick Corbin, ARI vs. LAA ($11,900) -- Corbin is the most expensive pitcher on the board at $10,800, but he's at home, and he draws an Angels team that is without Mike Trout for a few more days. He's posted at least 23 DraftKings points in each of his last three starts, topping out with 36.1 against the Phillies back on August 8. At -200, the D-backs are among the biggest favorites on the board, and the over/under total sits at an even 8, on a night where lower totals are difficult to come by. Corbin is my preferred tournament play because I think his price will cause many owners to overlook him with Kopech available at a huge discount, and with Blake Snell and Masahiro Tanaka a slight one.
Blake Snell, TAM vs. KC ($11,500) -- Snell has picked up the win while firing five scoreless innings in each of his last two starts. He's managed to do that while facing pitch-count limits, as the Rays are handling him carefully following a shoulder injury a few weeks ago. A bump up to the 85-90 pitch range is possible Tuesday, and that should be enough for him to get through six frames against a woeful Kansas City lineup, but there is less appeal than usual for tournaments especially, since it seems unlikely that he'll get to work much deep than that with the Rays having every reason to avoid exposing him to unnecessary risk.
Jose Berrios, MIN vs. CHW ($10,900) -- Berrios struggled in a home matchup against the Pirates last time out, and a pair of disappointing road turns against Cleveland and Boston have also dragged down his ratios in recent weeks. With all of the attention Tuesday on White Sox starter Michael Kopech, Berrios is an excellent play in his own right. Even though the White Sox's offense has produced at a league-average clip (100 wRC+) over the last 30 days, they have posted a league-high 27.1% K% during that span. With three 60-point starts already on the ledger this season, Berrios has a shot at making it four given the whiff-heavy tendencies of the White Sox. As is the case for those considering Kopech, the weather for this matchup should be monitored closely as lineup lock approaches.
Masahiro Tanaka, NYY at MIA ($10,200) -- I don't have the stomach to use Tanaka in cash games, but a road start in Miami is tempting on that front (I'm still not using him in that format). At the very least, I like him in tournaments, as I think he'll benefit from having a relatively high price tag on a night with Kopech making his debut. The Marlins have the league's lowest team wRC+ (69) over the last 30 days, and their biggest home-run threat (Justin Bour) was removed from the equation when he was flipped to the Phillies as part of a waiver deal earlier this month.
Kyle Hendricks, CHC at DET ($8,600) Hendricks draws at Tigers lineup that has mustered a 72 wRC+ over the last 30 days (fourth-worst during that span) on the heels of an effective start against the Brewers over the weekend. Over his last five starts, Hendricks has delivered at least 14 DraftKings points each time out, topping out with 29.4 in a road start against St. Louis on July 29. The lower price makes him a much better cash play than Tanaka, since that offsets a good deal of risk, and while he might be one of the highest-owned arms behind Michael Kopech in tournaments, it should be a low enough rate to be viable.
Summary: Most lineups will probably use one of Kopech or Hendricks, if not both together. At least in cash games, pairing them together is viable. In tournaments, it might require a unique twist or two with the bats to get some separation from the pack. It will be interesting to see if Junior Guerra ($6,700, home against a Votto-less Reds lineup) or Brett Anderson ($5,700, home against Texas) get occasional use as SP2 options, since they're pitching at home for playoff contenders at affordable prices. Hyun-Jin Ryu ($9,200) seems primed to fly under the radar, but he's been sharp in a limited chances to pitch around injuries this season; he's home against the Cardinals and rookie Daniel Poncedeleon. The big-field GPP angle that brings a lot of pitching upside, at a potentially light ownership rate is pairing Corbin with your cheap arm of choice, but that will require a more budget-conscious approach to putting the hitters together.
Catcher
Buster Posey, SF at NYM ($4,000) -- The Mets have Steven Matz taking the ball Tuesday, and it's fair to wonder if he's pitching through discomfort. Posey has a .931 OPS against left-handed pitching since the start of 2017, while Matz has yielded a 1.55 HR (.331 wOBA) to right-handed hitters since the start of 2016, so this is an excellent matchup from both sides. Interestingly enough, the catcher position as a few viable choices at similarly affordable prices Tuesday, as Willson Contreras ($3,600) draws Jordan Zimmermann in Detroit, and Austin Hedges ($3,900) picks up a righty-lefty matchup against Tyler Anderson in Coors Field.
First Base
Matt Olson, OAK vs. TEX ($4,100) -- Olson and the A's match up against Texas rookie Ariel Jurado, who has been very contact prone through five big-league starts (11 strikeouts in 26.2 innings), while serving up six homers (four came in one start on the road against the Yankees). The hope here is that Olson will get slightly less attention than Anthony Rizzo ($4,300) against Jordan Zimmermann. The overall output from Olson has been disappointing (.240/.324/.447), but he's cut his K% below 25 percent while hitting the ball on the ground slightly less than he did during his rookie campaign, and this matchup is about as good as it gets for a lefty power bat on a slate with plenty of arms to pick on.
Second Base
Jonathan Villar, BAL at TOR ($3,800) -- Villar is still very affordable and the O's-Jays matchup at Rogers Centre should have plenty of scoring on both sides with Sam Gaviglio taking the ball for Toronto. From a power perspective, Villar gets a bigger bump against a left-handed starter than he gets against a righty, but his ability to contribute on the basepaths and his high lineup placement at a sub-$4K price continues to make him a regular consideration for the keystone.
Travis Shaw ($4,600) is pricey, but a lefty-righty matchup at home against Sal Romano makes him one of the better power options in play at second base when you account for the park boost he gets at home, and when you factor in Romano's ongoing struggles against lefties (.369 wOBA allowed).
Third Base
Christian Villanueva, SD at COL ($4,600) -- If nothing else, Villanueva has taken an opportunity to play nearly every day to carve out a role on the small side of a platoon for 2019. He's posted a 201 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season, posting a .336/.393/.736 line and 14 of his 20 homers despite a 31.1% K% in that split. The power potential against a lefty in any park is enough to consider Villanueva in most matchups, and he'll benefit from a road trip to Coors Field to begin this week, against Colorado lefty Tyler Anderson (1.42 HR/9 vs. LHH since the start of 2016).
Plenty of alternatives are worth thinking about, including Taylor Ward ($3,000), who is a cheap GPP option if you're not building around Patrick Corbin as one of your pitchers, and David Bote ($3,400) if he's once again hitting from a prominent place in the Cubs' lineup.
Shortstop
Carlos Correa, HOU at SEA ($4,200) -- Concerns about elevated ownership rates on Correa in tournaments remain well founded, but he's been very quiet since returning from the DL more than a week ago. Last Tuesday, he posted a donut in a favorable matchup, and he's collected just two hits in his last six games. The Astros are expected to welcome Jose Altuve back into the lineup Tuesday, providing a slight lift to the offense as a whole, and the matchup is a good one again this week, as Mike Leake is starting for Seattle.
If you're waiting to see a little bit of production before buying in, Elvis Andrus ($4,000) gets a righty-lefty matchup against Brett Anderson, and Manny Machado ($4,600) faces St. Louis rookie Daniel Poncedeleon at Dodger Stadium.
Outfield
Manuel Margot, SD at COL ($4,000) -- While Margot's .749 OPS against lefties since the start of last season is nothing to get crazy about, he might get a chance to lead off in a game that has the highest over/under total on the board (be sure to check the lineup, he's recently hit in the bottom-third of the order, which would take him out of cash-game consideration). As noted above, Tyler Anderson gives up a decent home-run rate to right-handed hitters (1.42 HR/9), and Margot has the slight power, big-speed combo necessary to wreak havoc across the board when he gets on base.
Tommy Pham, TAM vs. KC ($3,900) -- Royals starter Glenn Sparkman had 35 strikeouts in 55 innings over 10 starts at Triple-A this season. Heavy contact tendencies can be punished in a big way, and the Royals also boast the league's worst bullpen, so even if Sparkman finds a way to keep the Rays quiet for five or six innings, damage can be done against the relief corps. Pham had a multi-hit game in his first contest back from the DL, but he's gone quiet with three hitless appearances and five strikeouts in the three games since. Buying into him with a league-average caliber matchup might be risky, but this setup should be a layup for the Tampa Bay offense.
Marwin Gonzalez, HOU at SEA ($3,300) -- Gonzalez can be used as a shortstop on DraftKings, which offers an even cheaper solution behind the likes of Carlos Correa and Manny Machado for those looking to save cash at the position. He's homered in back-to-back games, while the Astros have hit him sixth or higher in each of his last five starts. Gonzalez has a .294/.379/.529 line over the last 30 games (six homers, 14 RBI), and there is nothing in his overall performance this season to suggest that his 2017 was repeatable, but he's cheap, hitting higher in the order for now, and matching up with a low-K% starter in Seattle's Mike Leake on Tuesday night.
