This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
As you will notice on this week's Tuesday slate, the is pitching more difficult to sort out than usual for a big slate.
That could open the door for another night of huge offensive totals, and fortunately, there appear to be a lot of useful mid-tier bats, and a few cheap ones, to offset the cost of spending up on at least one of the two arms in your lineups.
I made an adjustment to the write-ups for today, offering shorter takes on several players at each position in lieu of listing a group of alternatives to consider following a longer write-up on one recommended play.
Hopefully this approach is useful.
Generally, I didn't write up the most expensive bats -- including Coors options -- since it should be fairly obvious that the overwhelming majority of those players are fine plays if the budget allows you to utilize them.
As noted over the last couple weeks, I'm making a concerted effort to indicate the type of contest I prefer to use players in -- cash (50/50) or tournaments (GPPs) -- which is generally an exercise in estimating ownership rates (or "finding the chalk") and making sure to have enough variation around the highly-coveted top value plays to have a dangerous lineup.
A strong cash-game play isn't necessarily a "bad" tournament play, but too many "chalky" players can create a limiting factor in big-field tournaments.
Your constructive feedback is appreciated, and always welcomed.
For those interested, we've started an MLB DFS Slack channel for paid RotoWire subscribers. (There is a season-long one as well.) To join those channels, e-mail support@rotowire.com.
Pitchers
Zack Greinke, ARI vs. STL ($10,900) -- Clayton Kershaw at home for $12,000 would typically be a lock here. Greinke draws a tougher opposing pitcher in Jack Flaherty, which lowers his win probability, but if you're still expecting limitations for Kershaw, the gap narrows considerably. Greinke has pitched on the road in four of his last five starts, but he returns home to Chase Field on Tuesday where he's carried a 50:10 K:BB in 48.2 innings with just four homers allowed this season. Greinke is the best cash-game play on the board Tuesday, and the only concern in tournaments is that he might be heavily deployed thanks to second-tier inflation.
Clayton Kershaw, LAD vs. PIT ($12,000) -- He pitched very well in his last start, but the Dodgers kept Kershaw under the 75-pitch cap they had predetermined for his outing against the Cubs. It's reasonable to think that cap will increased by 10-15 pitches for Tuesday's start against the Pirates, and he can do more with 90 pitches than most, but there is enough risk to put him second behind Greinke as the second-best cash pitcher on the board for the main slate. In tournaments, the added risk with his workload makes him slightly more appealing.
Jack Flaherty, STL at ARI ($10,100) -- The D-backs are scarier with Paul Goldschmidt looking like himself again, but it's still an offense that can be picked on with quality arms. Other than having his win probability knocked down by Greinke (the best cash-game option on the board) in this matchup, there is a lot to like as the Arizona offense has an 80 wRC+ against righties along with a 23.2% K% this season.
Zach Eflin, PHI vs. BAL ($9,900) -- Eflin's improvement in 2018 is backed by considerable skills growth, including increased fastball velocity. He's controlling a five-pitch arsenal effectively, and while the price is slightly higher than the rest of the tournament considerations, it may temper ownership rates against a Baltimore lineup that has an 86 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season, along with a 24.9% K% in that split, which ranks second on Tuesday's slate. My interpretation of the pool is that there will be an unwillingness to pay nearly $10K for Eflin, which bodes well for those who want to use him in tournaments.
Shane Bieber, CLE at KC ($9,600) -- Bieber and the Indians are -200 road favorites in Kansas City on Tuesday, and while he doesn't walk many hitters, he's susceptible to getting knocked around because he's in the strike zone constantly. The Royals don't strike out a lot, but they've been the league's weakest offense over the last 30 days, and Bieber offers 25-point upside at a very affordable price.
Domingo German, NYY vs. ATL ($8,500) -- After a run of 22, 27, and 35 points in three starts, German bottomed out and finished in the red (-7) against the Rays in his last start. He made one bullpen appearance between starts, and is getting another turn Tuesday against a Braves lineup that continues to maintain a sub-20 percent K% against righties while sitting close to league average output in that split (99 wRC+). It's risky, but the ceiling is high enough where he could end up producing the highest point total on the slate if he's dialed in with his command.
Anthony DeSclafani, CIN vs. CHW ($7,600) -- Disco often falls into a strange middle ground, where he doesn't seem safe enough for cash-games, but he lacks the crazy high-upside we covet with a cheap pitcher for tournaments. Fortunately, the White Sox strike out a lot, which opens the door for DeSclafani to reach 20 points for the first time this season in what will only be his sixth turn in the Reds' rotation since returning from the DL on June 5. Only the Dodgers (-250) are a bigger favorite than the Reds on Tuesday night (-220), and the hope here is that the Cincinnati lineup will pile up plenty of run support against Lucas Giolito.
Chris Bassitt, OAK vs. SD ($6,300) -- Even at home against San Diego, there is a lot of risk with Bassitt, whose ERA is above 6.00 at Triple-A Nashville this season. He's capable of reaching the quality start bonus, and piling up enough strikeouts to make a run at another 20-point night, but this has very little to do with his skills, and is all about the Padres' lineup.
Summary: This pitching slate is pretty gross. Not overthinking it would likely mean pairing Greinke with your preferred option of DeSclafani or Bassitt and focusing the rest of your effort on bats. If the weather holds, and you're willing to take on the risk of pitchers at home in very hitter-friendly environments, an Eflin-German duo in big-field GPPs is the high-risk, high-reward combo. In cash games, Kershaw and Greinke could become viable as a pairing if enough cheap bats surface when lineups are released.
Catcher
Yan Gomes, CLE at KC ($3,200) -- With a .286/.378/.548 line against lefties since the start of 2017, Gomes has some of the better splits among the catchers available Tuesday night. Even if you believe Danny Duffy is fixed to the point of not stacking Cleveland bats against him, Gomes is an affordable solution at a thin position. If the Tribe opts to use Roberto Perez ($2,600) instead of Gomes, he's a great way to save money behind the plate to upgrade elsewhere.
Yasmani Grandal, LAD vs. PIT ($3,800) -- Since finishing April with a .953 OPS, Grandal has hit .188/.287/.354 in the two-plus months since, lowering his season mark to .760 while averaging a meager 5.8 DraftKings points per game during that span. Ivan Nova has an extremely low strikeout rate against lefties, and he's very homer prone in that split, which gives the switch-hitting Grandal a nice bump up in value on the heels of Monday's 20-point effort -- his first since June 8.
If you have more to spend, Chris Iannetta or Tom Murphy (both $3,700) will draw Chris Stratton at Coors, Buster Posey ($4,700) faces Antonio Senzatela, and Evan Gattis ($4,300) is on the road in Arlington with a matchup against Austin Bibens-Dirkx.
First Base
Carlos Santana, PHI vs. BAL ($4,700) -- Alex Cobb is a bad fit for any park that boosts homer. The switch-hitting Santana isn't cheap, but he could match the output of the $5K+ options on the board in this matchup.
Pablo Sandoval, SF at COL ($3,800) -- If he draws a start, the Panda is hitting .306/.370/.468 against righties this season, with an opportunity to face off against Antonio Senzatela in the league's most hitter-friendly environment.
Lucas Duda, KC vs. CLE ($3,500) -- Shane Bieber is probably falling short of making it into my lineups on DraftKings because of his high price, which puts Duda back on the radar as a cheap, power-heavy first base option with excellent splits against righties. He's cash-game and tournament viable Tuesday thanks to Coors.
Marwin Gonzalez, HOU at TEX ($3,300) -- It's increasingly clear that 2017 was Gonzalez's career year, but he's playing regularly -- likely hitting in the bottom-third of the order -- in the absence of Carlos Correa. The Astros-Rangers matchup between Dallas Keuchel and Austin Bibens-Dirkx features an over/under of 10.5
Second Base
Gleyber Torres, NYY vs. ATL ($4,200) -- Sean Newcomb is a very good pitcher, but I have my doubts about his chances of beating Yankee Stadium on Tuesday night. Vegas apparently agrees, as the over/under for this game sits at an even 9.0, with Domingo German getting the start for the Yankees. Torres has pummeled lefties since his arrival in New York earlier this season (.338/.397/.646), and he's been on the receiving end of opportunities to hit in the middle third of the Yankees' lineup in recent weeks.
Ian Kinsler, LAA at SEA ($3,400) -- If he stays in the sixth or seventh spot in the batting order, which was the move made over the weekend with Kole Calhoun leading off for the Angels, Kinsler falls into GPP-only status with a righty-lefty matchup against Wade LeBlanc on Tuesday night. The 36-year-old may be running out of gas, but buying in at a discounted price against a lefty is the only way to use him right now, as his OPS in that split has been just under .900 in each of the last two seasons.
Chad Pinder, OAK vs. SD ($3,400) -- He's OF-eligible as well. Lefty Clayton Richard is starting for San Diego. You know the drill by now.
Third Base
Justin Turner, LAD vs. PIT ($4,000) -- Maybe he's my favorite player and I'm unable to admit it. I really don't know. Lefties do more damage against Ivan Nova than righties, but Turner is still $500 underpriced.
Adrian Beltre, TEX vs. HOU ($3,800) -- If you don't believe in Dallas Keuchel enough to use him as one of your pitchers, you should be comfortable using hitters against him when the appropriate situation arises. Beltre's splits against lefties are better than any 3B-eligible player's splits against the opposing team's starter from Tuesday's slate.
Mike Moustakas, KC vs. CLE ($4,000) -- Like Lucas Duda at first, Moustakas can be used by those who are not rolling with Shane Bieber as one of their two pitchers.
Matt Chapman, OAK vs. SD ($4,000) -- The swing-and-miss in Chapman's game limits the appeal to tournaments only, but he has legitimate 25-plus homer pop and a matchup against a lefty (Clayton Richard) with a .354 wOBA allowed to right-handed hitters since the start of 2016.
Shortstop
Elvis Andrus, TEX vs. HOU ($3,900) -- Stacking against Dallas Keuchel is an option, although it's not necessary with plenty of matchups to pick on around the league Tuesday. Andrus is $100 cheaper than Jurickson Profar, who is also in play thanks to his excellent numbers against left-handed pitching (.856 OPS).
Andrelton Simmons, LAA at SEA ($3,900) -- There is very little that separates Andrus and Simmons on Tuesday, though the prevailing argument is that you probably feel better about picking on Wade LeBlanc with Simmons than picking on Dallas Keuchel with Andrus since the prices are equal.
Scott Kingery, PHI vs. BAL ($3,300) -- A tournament-only punt play, Kingery regularly ends up in a very prominent spot in the order despite the ongoing struggles throughout the first half of his rookie campaign. Cheap exposure to Alex Cobb in Philadelphia might prove to be fruitful.
Outfield
Justin Upton, LAA at SEA ($4,500) -- Compared to the elite outfielders, Upton is a relative bargain, and while he doesn't match their overall talent and production, his splits against lefties are outstanding (.999 OPS since the start of 2017).
Michael Conforto, NYM at TOR ($3,900) -- Disclaimer: No pitcher puzzles me more than Marco Estrada. In June, Conforto was flashing the elite skills he displayed before shoulder surgery, which is enough for me to consider him at this price on a night where a lot of the top-end options are priced up at $5K+. It's interesting to me that Conforto is $500 cheaper than Brandon Nimmo, who may still be dealing with the lingering effects of a finger injury that surfaced a little over a week ago.
Josh Reddick, HOU at TEX ($3,700) -- Reddick is still looking for his first homer since returning from the DL back on June 6. Over the last 21 games, he's hitting .314 with a .338 OBP, but slugging a meager .343. Even with the power outage, the Astros continue to give him chances around the heart of the order, which is good enough to roll with him at this price against Rangers right-hander Austin Bibens-Dirkx.
Nick Williams, PHI vs. BAL ($3,400) -- After posting an above average line against righties as a rookie (.838 OPS, 116 wRC+), Williams has dropped to a .745 OPS and 98 wRC+ in Year 2. A home matchup against Alex Cobb is simply too good to pass up at this price, however, especially as he'll likely hit fifth or sixth in the Phillies' lineup Tuesday night.
Brandon Guyer, CLE at KC ($2,900) -- Much like Yan Gomes, Guyer can serve as a very cheap path to a piece in the Cleveland lineup against Royals lefty Danny Duffy. Injuries were likely an issue when he struggled against southpaws in 2017, but Guyer has generally been one of the better small-side platoon bats over the last five years, posting wRC+ marks of 124 or higher in four of the last five seasons, including a 130 mark in 2018.
