This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Three starting pitchers are returning from the DL on Tuesday night, which paired with two high-priced aces, and a few other interesting mid-tier options allows a wide variety of strategies to be utilized on this big slate.
As noted over the last couple weeks, I'm making a concerted effort to indicate the type of contest I prefer to use players in -- cash (50/50) or tournaments (GPPs) -- which is generally an exercise in estimating ownership rates (or "finding the chalk") and making sure to have enough variation around the highly-coveted top value plays to have a dangerous lineup.
A strong cash-game play isn't necessarily a "bad" tournament play, but too many "chalky" players can create a limiting factor in big-field tournaments.
Your constructive feedback is appreciated, and always welcomed.
For those interested, we've started an MLB DFS Slack channel for paid RotoWire subscribers. (There is a season-long one as well.) To join those channels, e-mail support@rotowire.com.
Pitcher
Cash: Madison Bumgarner, SF vs. ARI ($10,100) -- The return of Bumgarner comes with the benefit of a lower-than-usual price tag, likely due to the uncertainty about his workload in his first start back. The D-backs have been an above-average offense against lefties this season (106 wRC+), but that output has come with a 24.5% K%. Moreover, Bumgarner threw 74 pitches in his last rehab outing, which should leave the door open for him to reach 90 pitches in his season debut Tuesday night. By comparison, Carlos Martinez threw 63 pitches in his lone rehab appearance, so the potential for a tighter workload cap and a higher price on Martinez ($11,000) makes me much more comfortable with Bumgarner as a discounted cash play.
Also consider: Max Scherzer, WAS vs. TAM ($13,300), Corey Kluber, CLE vs. MIL ($12,600)
Cheap 2nd SP Consideration: Kyle Hendricks, CHC vs. PHI ($8,300) -- Assuming conditions aren't extremely hitter friendly with the wind blowing out, Hendricks is a nice mid-tier option capable of opening up salary for pricey bats later on. Once the moneyline is available, the Cubs should be among the bigger favorites on the board with Hendricks matching up against Zach Eflin. The Phillies have a 26.8% K% against righties this season, and 92 wRC+, leaving Hendricks with a little more whiff upside than usual in a matchup with good win probability.
Also consider: Dallas Keuchel, HOU vs. SEA ($7,900), Anthony DeSclafani, CIN vs. COL ($6,200)
Tournaments Only: Andrew Heaney, LAA vs. KC ($8,600) -- The Royals aren't terrible against lefties, but Heaney and the Angels are a big favorite (-200) at home, and he should be overlooked with so many aces available at a few price points. Prior to a rough first inning against the Tigers in his last start, Heaney reeled off a six-start stretch with a 1.45 ERA and 1.07 WHIP while averaging 22 DraftKings points per game during that span.
Catcher
Willson Contreras, CHC vs. PHI ($3,900) -- Zach Eflin takes the ball for the Phillies on Tuesday night, and while Eflin has shown an increase in velocity on his fastball this season, he's still not generating enough whiffs with his secondary pitches to steer away from him when favorable matchups and prices come together. Contreras is $400 cheaper than Gary Sanchez (who is absolutely a consideration against Marco Estrada) despite comparable splits against right-handed pitching since the start of last season. As of early Tuesday morning, the weather conditions for game time at Wrigley were uncertain, but unless there is a heavy wind blowing in, Contreras is my preferred play here.
Robinson Chirinos is $3,000 against lefty Sean Manaea on Tuesday, and he's the best value play available assuming he starts in the game currently featuring the highest over/under total on the board (10.5).
First Base
Matt Adams ($3,900)/Mark Reynolds ($4,000), WAS vs. TAM -- Nathan Eovaldi was impressive in his return from the DL last week, firing six no-hit innings against Oakland, and reaching triple digits with his fastball. The uncertainty pre-lineup reveal is regarding Adams' foot, which kept him out of the lineup Sunday after he fouled a pitch off the appendage in Saturday's game. Regardless of whether it's Adams or Reynolds getting the call for Tuesday's matchup, the Nats' first-base options are well positioned since Adams has the platoon advantage against Eovaldi, and Reynolds' splits against righties (.277/.350/.529 since the start of 2017) are better than you might think.
The limited number of mid-tier and cheap value options makes paying up for Anthony Rizzo ($4,500 vs. Zach Eflin and the Phillies) or Mitch Moreland ($4,600 vs. Artie Lewicki and the Tigers) more appealing. As noted in previous columns, Paul Goldschmidt continues to hit lefties extremely well (1.155 OPS), and he will likely be lightly owned on the road in San Francisco for the season debut of Madison Bumgarner. Goldy is an option as a contrarian play in tournaments at $4,400.
Second Base
Matt Carpenter, STL vs. MIA ($3,900) -- Carpenter matches up with Jose Urena and the Marlins on Tuesday night, getting a lefty-righty set up against a pitcher whose ongoing struggle to miss bats against lefties has historically been his biggest skills flaw. While he's shown some improvement to that end in 2018, a 17.0% K% is nothing to write home about, and the St. Louis bats will all reap the benefits of facing the league's worst bullpen in this series, as the Marlins are currently tied with the Indians in team bullpen WAR (-1.0) in 2018. Since sitting two of three games at the end of a series in San Diego in May, Carpenter is hitting .316/.381/.592 (.973) OPS over the last 19 games entering play Tuesday night.
Top Alternative: Jonathan Schoop, BAL at NYM ($3,500) -- Schoop crushed lefties last season (150 wRC+) and Jason Vargas is on the mound for the Mets on Tuesday.
Third Base
Adrian Beltre, TEX vs. OAK ($3,800) -- A's starter Sean Manaea has allowed six homers in his last six starts (31.1 IP), while posting a mediocre 19:7 K:BB during that span. He's also allowed three or more earned runs in each of those six outings, which is hidden in his surface numbers thanks to his excellent opening stanza to 2018 that included a no-hitter against the Red Sox on April 21. Beltre has been at least 48 percent better than league average against southpaws in each of the last five seasons, and his low strikeout rate paired with Manaea's strikeout rate sets up very nicely.
The matchup against Artie Lewicki will likely steer a lot of lineups toward loading up Boston bats, but Rafael Devers ($3,300) has hit the ball hard on a regular basis this season with production that has been lagging in a big way in recent weeks.
Shortstop
Trea Turner, WAS vs. TAM ($4,600) -- Xander Bogaerts has an easier matchup on paper for $100 less, but I think he'll end up being the second highest-owned shortstop on Tuesday's slate (behind Manny Machado against Jason Vargas), which makes him better suited for cash-game use than tournaments. As noted above, Turner and the Nats face Nathan Eovaldi, and while Eovaldi can reach back for triple-digits with his fastball, Turner is a good fastball hitter, having hit 15 of his 18 homers since the start of last season on heaters, and carrying a higher wOBA on fastballs (.343) than on breaking pitches (.318) and off-speed pitches (.227) in 2018.
As cheap alternatives go, once again Jurickson Profar ($3,500) stands out as having a favorable matchup at an affordable price against Oakland's Sean Manaea.
Outfield
Marcell Ozuna, STL vs. MIA ($3,700) -- The low price and the revenge narrative alone are going to make Ozuna's ownership rate spring up Tuesday, and it would have been on the rise anyway with homers in back-to-back games entering his first matchup against his former club. Stringing together at Cards stack (or mini stack) makes sense if you believe that Jose Urena can get chased from the game at a reasonably early point, leaving the St. Louis bats with multiple looks at the league's worst bullpen. In any case, Ozuna and Matt Carpenter are the two targets I like most, and prioritizing at least one of them in your lineup is a good idea.
Adam Duvall, CIN vs. COL ($3,400) -- Increased swing-and-miss against lefties has chipped away at Duvall's batting average this season, it's reflected in his .184/.344/.510 line against lefties as well. The power hasn't gone away, however, and he's still drawing enough walks to offset some of the whiff concern that he brings to the table. Considering the high price of Eugenio Suarez in this matchup ($5,100), Duvall stands out as one of the better value plays to consider against Kyle Freeland and a Colorado bullpen that ranks 25th in WAR this season.
Jackie Bradley, BOS vs. DET ($3,000) -- Likely hitting ninth in the order, Bradley is difficult to use outside of GPPs despite a great setup Tuesday with Artie Lewicki starting for the Tigers. For the season, Bradley's average exit velocity currently sits at a four-year high, and while he's a long shot to ever approach the numbers he put up while making the AL All-Star Team in 2016, he's not as bad as the results suggest through the first two-plus months of 2018 either. Of the 17 homers he hit last season, 14 came against righties, so the dart throws (and that's what this is) where you utilize him as a way to get a very low-owned player in tow, should come in setups like the one he's got Tuesday.
