This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
We have a nice set of 12 games to work with for Tuesday's main slate. Despite plenty of matchups to work with, there aren't many true aces or top fantasy pitchers taking the mound, and even for those that do, many have tough matchups. That leaves the choice of pitcher skill versus matchup as one of the top questions of the day. There are also some under the radar lineups to consider rostering as well, with the Phillies (not under-the-radar), Twins and Nationals looking like teams to potentially put up some runs.
Pitchers
Freddy Peralta ($10,000) has started the season in excellent form, maintaining a 33.3 K% and 25.4 K-BB%. He's the highest-priced pitcher but is nevertheless potentially worth paying up for in a matchup against a Rays' offense that has underwhelmed (.299 team wOBA). Whether to roster Peralta or not is less of a question of his skill and matchup, but more about some of the exceptional value we have in lower tiers.
We can drop down a tier or two from Peralta and debate matchup vs. pitcher skill for our next selections. Mitch Keller ($8,800) has gotten off to a shaky start to 2024 but has a matchup against Oakland in a pitcher-friendly park. This is the chance for him to get his season back on track, although he doesn't come at much of a discount. Luis Castillo ($8,600) is the opposite scenario. He has a 2.95 SIERA and a 24 K-BB%, which makes him a clear value at his price. The problem is that he faces the strong Atlanta offense. At home in another pitcher-friendly environment, I'd side with Castillo. There is a decent case to roster this duo over Peralta.
Cole Ragans ($7,700) is yet another curiously priced pitcher. He's been boom or bust (three starts of 20 or more DK points, one under 10 DK points, and one negative-point start), but his price is at its lowest point of the season. A matchup against the Blue Jays isn't a layup, but it's also not something to run from.
For our punt play of the day, we can go back to hunting matchups. The Pirates have been absolutely dreadful offensively for most of the season. In the last 30 days, they have a .261 wOBA and 24.5 K% as a team. That puts Alex Wood ($6,700) into consideration, but that's based entirely on the matchup – not his skill.
Top Hitters
It's not often that we highlight catchers as the top plays, but not many players at the position have hit as well as William Contreras ($5,300). He regularly bats second in Milwaukee's lineup, but he should lead off against lefty Tyler Alexander. In addition, Alexander has allowed 1.8 HR/9 to begin the season (he's allowed two HR in two of five starts). He's found more effectiveness of late, so I don't necessarily want to stack the Brewers, but targeting a standalone option or a mini stack is in play.
We'll keep what perhaps could be considered unconventional picks rolling and take a look at the Nationals lineup. More specifically, I want to target Jon Gray due to the hard contact he's allowed this season (nine barrels, 13.4 percent barrel rate) with a pair of hot-hitting Nats in CJ Abrams ($5,200) and Jesse Winker ($3,900).
Value Bats
Fenway Park is a prime spot for left-handed batters to excel, and a matchup against Cooper Criswell helps the outlook for the Giants as well. In particular, LaMonte Wade ($3,400) stands out as a nice value, as he regularly hits second against right-handed pitching. Michael Conforto ($4,500) isn't cheap so is admittedly a little out of place in this section, but he and Wade is a nice potential mini-stack.
Stacks to Consider
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Angels (Tyler Anderson): Trea Turner ($6,200), Bryce Harper ($5,900), Alec Bohm ($4,800)
Anderson's 1.78 ERA Is smoke and mirrors, as is illustrated by his 6.6 K-BB% and 5.10 SIERA. All that regression won't come in a single start, but the Phillies have a good chance of beginning the inevitable correction. As is the case with all stronger lineups, it's possible to build the stack through the middle third of the order, also including some cheaper options such as Nick Castellanos ($4,000) and Whit Merrifield ($3,000). Of course, there's also the elite top-third of the order, which has powered the Phillies to a .341 wOBA against lefties overall this season – seventh-best in the league.
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox (Mike Soroka): Alex Kirilloff ($4,100), Edouard Julien ($4,400), Trevor Larnach ($3,800)
The Twins have gone from a matchup to target with opposing pitchers to one to target for stacks. Across the last seven days, they have the most runs scored and the highest wOBA in the league, and are inside the top two in each metric across the last 14 days. The beauty of stacking the Twins is that it's also cheap due to the lack of star power on the team, so they make a nice secondary stack option to more expensive options such as the Phillies and Astros. Soroka is also a pitcher to stack against due to his negative K-BB(-3.0%) and 2.2 HR/9.
