This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
With the rainout in Game 5 of the ALDS Monday, we have two games Tuesday. The second game is Game 1 of the NLCS, and the analysis will look largely similar to Monday's edition for this individual game. More has changed for Game 5 of the ALDS because the quality of the pitching has likely taken a significant jump up.
Cleveland at New York
Pitching Matchup: Shane Bieber ($8,900) vs. Nestor Cortes ($8,600)
We saw the first rainout of this series work to the Guardians' detriment, as it ruled out the possibility of Shane Bieber starting on short rest in Game 5. With Monday's postponement however, Bieber enters the mix once again and is the likeliest starter for Cleveland. The team made no formal announcement at the time this article was drafted, so be sure to confirm that prior to locking in your roster. Assuming he is the starter, Bieber is a strong option. He has been lights out throughout the postseason by allowing only three earned runs across 13.1 innings while maintaining a 15:4 K:BB. The Yankees are a high-risk, high-reward opponent. They struck out at a league-average rate during the regular season, but they have the highest mark – albeit by a slim margin – of any remaining team. Of course, they're also capable of putting up runs in bunches thanks to the power hitters at the top of the lineup. Bieber is the most expensive pitcher of the day. Combined with the fact that he's on the road against the Yankees, he could go under-rostered, but he's my top pitcher choice.
Cortes is a harder case. He doesn't get the credit he deserves because of his quirky approach on the mound. However, he has the second-highest strikeout rate among the four pitchers Tuesday and has allowed only 0.9 HR/9 for the season. That said, I have concern about the Guardians' contact-heavy approach. If Cortes gets into a jam, runs up his pitch count, or is simply hit hard, he is likely to get a quick hook.
Hitters:
It's hard to invest in the top of the Yankees lineup if Bieber is on the mound. On the other hand, it's virtually impossible to avoid tough matchups at this stage of the season so we can point out (as we did Monday) Oswaldo Cabrera ($3,300) and Harrison Bader ($2,800) as good values.
The advice on Guardians' bats also remains comparable, though a change from a right-handed pitcher in Jameson Taillon to lefty Cortes is notable. Andres Gimenez ($4,700), though also a lefty, hit well without the handedness advantage this season. Amed Rosario ($3,900) and Jose Ramirez ($6,000) were also strong against lefties. Though they don't stand out based on matchup, both Oscar Gonzalez ($3,700) and Josh Naylor ($3,600) hit in the middle of the lineup and are cheap.
Philadelphia at San Diego
Pitcher Matchup: Zack Wheeler ($8,200) vs. Yu Darvish ($8,600)
Despite the change in pitchers in the ALDS game, Wheeler still narrowly holds the highest strikeout rate and lowest homer rate among Tuesday's starters. He actually becomes more appealing than he would have been on the original slate because there is no value option to pivot to save salary. One thing worth noting is that he hasn't provided the strikeouts (nine in 12.1 innings) we're used to seeing in the postseason and San Diego is good at getting the bat on the ball. I'd take Bieber based on matchup and skill, but Wheeler should not be the cheapest pitcher of the day.
For Monday's slate, I wrote: "Darvish is also a decent option, but his (relative) home run problem has been highlighted this postseason. He's surrendered four long balls in 12 innings and will face a Philadelphia team that has plenty of big bats capable of going yard." That analysis still applies, though I'd take him over Cortes at the same price.
Hitter Analysis:
Because the pitchers in the matchup didn't change at all, the analysis of the hitters remains largely the same as it was Monday. The one major difference is the lack of ability to pay down at pitcher. While I still like Bryce Harper ($6,300), Kyle Schwarber ($5,500), J.T. Realmuto ($5,000) and Rhys Hoskins ($4,200), it's not as easy to fit multiple of those hitters into the lineup. Pairing them as a stack with the Guardians does remain in play and could be relatively cost-efficient and likely not super chalky.
I'm not particularly interested in rostering Padres hitters, but there are some good value options available. Austin Nola ($2,900) and Trent Grisham ($2,700) highlight that list, but Ha-Seong Kim ($3,400) has had a fairly productive postseason and Jurickson Profar ($3,700) has remained entrenched as the leadoff hitter against righties.
