This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
We're back to a nearly full schedule for Tuesday night after a modest Monday night card. It sets up well for lots of offense, as eight of the starting pitchers slated to take the mound have allowed more than 1.5 HR/9 and have a SIERA above 4.50. That makes it a good night to play contrarian and largely fade any heavily rostered bats in tournament contests.
Pitchers
Nestor Cortes ($10,400) has become increasingly unappealing from a DFS perspective as his price has risen. He's now consistently in the five-figure range, yet his strikeout rate has fallen every month of the season. Despite both of those factors, Cortes is still able to limit damage against him, which makes him a strong cash play that lacks significant upside. He takes on the Rays Tuesday, a lineup that strikeouts out at a top-10 clip and owns a bottom five wOBA in the league.
From there, there's a trio of pitchers that appear to be strong plays in the mid-tier: Sean Manaea ($9,000), Spencer Strider ($8,600) and Kyle Gibson ($8,100). Of that group, Manaea has the best matchup against a Diamondbacks lineup that has some pop but strikes out 24.5 percent of the time. If Manaea offers some combination of floor and ceiling, Strider is the shot for upside as he's maintained a 38.6 percent strikeout rate this season (38.3 percent as a starter). He struggles with his command and as a result doesn't work deep into games. However, he's worked 5.2 frames in each of his last two outings and tallied 33 and 29.8 DK points, respectively. San Francisco is a tough matchup so he may not replicate those results. Finally, Gibson takes on a Rangers' lineup that is again a positive matchup as measured by wOBA and strikeout rate. He's a bet along the same lines as Manaea, likely to score somewhere between 14 and 19 DK points. That's not exciting compared to his price point, but it will work in cash games.
Jordan Lyles ($6,000) hasn't been confirmed as the starter for Tuesday since being scratched from his scheduled outing Sunday with a stomach bug. Assuming he's able to take the mound, he's the punt pitcher I like the most. The Nationals have shown the potential to be a dangerous lineup – particularly at the top – but Lyles has topped 20 DK points against elite lineups such as the Yankees and Blue Jays. It's far from a lock that will occur again, but he has the potential to return a lot of value.
Top Hitters
Nolan Gorman ($3,900) is priced in between a value and a top hitter, but he's in a strong spot Tuesday so worth highlighting even if he doesn't fit neatly into a single category. American Family Field (Brewers' home park) has a 150 park factor (per Statcast) for left-handed home runs this season, and Chi-Chi Gonzalez has surrendered 1.6 HR/9 across 191.1 innings since the 2019 season.
Jose Urquidy gives up a lot of loud contact. Needless to say, that's a good thing for opposing hitters and the Mets have a lineup that is full of players that can take advantage. Francisco Lindor ($4,200) is a nice option to take advantage, while Brandon Nimmo ($3,700) fits into a similar price range as Gorman.
Julio Rodriguez ($4,700) has already emerged as one of the most dynamic players in the league. He's led off the Mariners lineup for three consecutive games and will now match up against James Kaprielian, who owns the third-lowest strikeout rate among pitchers in Tuesday's pool and has served up 2.2 HR/9.
Value Hitters
DraftKings released these prices two days in advance, so Oneil Cruz ($2,000) remains at the minimum price. It's a safe bet he won't stay at that point long, but he serves as a nice value for the time being.
Jarren Duran ($3,300) is another repeat on this list from Monday, but there's no reason to go away from him as long as he is priced at this point and tops a dynamic Boston lineup. That's particularly true with Beau Brieske on the mound, who has allowed 2.0 HR/9 and has only an 8.8 K-BB%.
Seth Brown ($2,800) gets little to no attention because he hits in the middle of a dreadful Oakland lineup, but he's quietly posted a .210 ISO — good for 37th-best among qualified hitters in the league. He pairs that with a near 28 percent strikeout rate, but his price point leaves margin for error. He'll also face Marco Gonzales, who has only a 13.7 percent strikeout rate on the season.
Stacks to Consider
Los Angeles Angels vs. Jonathan Heasley: Taylor Ward ($3,700), Mike Trout ($5,500), Shohei Ohtani ($5,600), Jared Walsh ($3,400)
Of all the pitchers on the slate, Heasley may be my favorite to target. He has the highest SIERA (5.44) and a 12.6 percent walk rate. He's also allowed enough home runs (1.3 HR/9) that the Angels lineup should be able to make him pay for putting runners on base. The top of the Angels order also offers a nice mix of elite talent with more manageably priced options, making them a pretty easy team to build around.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Erick Fedde: Cedric Mullins ($4,600), Ryan Mountcastle ($3,900), Trey Mancini ($3,300), Anthony Santander ($3,900)
As I mentioned in the intro, it may be very important to get different with lineups Tuesday night. Baltimore should offer the possibility to do that, and I like the position they are in because of Fedde's 11.2 percent walk rate and 42.3 percent hard-hit rate (28th percentile). He's not the most obvious pitcher to stack against on the slate, but he's certainly not someone to avoid. Using Baltimore would also allow building around a pair of pitchers above the 8K price point, which could be another way to get an advantage over the field.
Braves vs. Anthony DeSclafani: Ronald Acuna ($5,800), Dansby Swanson ($5,400), Austin Riley ($5,400), Matt Olson ($4,300)
Atlanta could be another relatively sneaky spot to capitalize on, albeit more conventional than Baltimore. DeSclafani hasn't appeared in a big-league game since April 22 and will now be asked to take on a fairly strong Atlanta lineup. The downside is the price points, as there isn't a significant source of salary relief at the top of Atlanta's order. If this looks to be a popular play by the time lineups lock, I'd steer clear.
