This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
We're now up to the sixth game day of the 2022 season, which means we're back into the rhythm of meaningful baseball on a daily basis. However, with home openers still going on around the league, day games remain more common than a typical summer day. As a result, the main slate is nine games. That leaves us with plenty of options to choose from, but not quite a full slate. As a note, at the time of drafting there was no confirmed starter for Atlanta against Washington.
Pitchers
The level of difficulty will jump for Yu Darvish ($10,100) in his second start of the season, which will come against San Francisco. He threw six no-hit innings on Opening Day against Arizona, which certainly gave the impression that he was past the hip and back injuries that slowed him to close the 2021 campaign. His velocity was over 95 mph, another positive sign. However, that didn't translate to swings and misses, as he had just a 10.9 percent swinging strike rate and three total strikeouts. Given that he's the highest-priced pitcher Tuesday, and that he will face a Giants lineup that is middle of the road in terms of strikeouts, he's a viable fade in tournaments. However, he's a strong SP1 in cash games and also playable in tournaments.
Luis Garcia ($9,400) was a season-long darling during draft season, and he'll draw a nice matchup to make his first start of the campaign. Arizona posted a .246 wOBA across the opening weekend against San Diego and was no-hit deep into games pitched by both Darvish and Sean Manaea. While its bats should heat up at some point, Garcia has the skills to take advantage of Arizona Tuesday. As measured by K% and K-BB%, Garcia is probably slightly overpriced, though the matchup helps offset some of that overpay. Garcia is an equally viable cash game play as Darvish, but I'm not particularly interested if his roster rate is projected to be substantial for tournaments.
Based on either price or matchup, there's a relative dead spot in the starting pitching pool Tuesday. However, Patrick Sandoval ($7,900), Jesus Luzardo ($7,300) and Alex Cobb ($7,000) are all intriguing options in the third tier of pricing. Sandoval and Luzardo will square off against each other, and based on both matchup and the skillset displayed in 2021, Sandoval is the better option of the duo. However, Luzardo gave reason to believe he will turn things around in 2022 by posting a 10:2 K:BB while allowing only one earned run across 11.2 spring training innings. It takes a bit of a leap of faith, but Luzardo is a nice tournament SP2 that will also leave salary for some higher-end bats. Finally, Cobb has revived his career by finding some extra ticks on his fastball in 2021. That trend continued in spring training of 2022, as he is now sitting between 94-95 mph while touching 97 mph. He's a very intriguing option, particularly given his reasonable price.
Top Targets
Hunter Renfroe ($4,700) has gotten off to a slow start with Milwaukee, as he's collected just one hit in his first 14 at-bats. However, he has a trio of things in his favor Tuesday. First, lefty Alexander Wells is expected to line up for the start in Baltimore (that has yet to be confirmed, so check before lineup lock). Renfroe has demolished southpaws throughout his career, maintaining a tremendous .375 wOBA and .882 OPS. Wells has also shown the skillset DFS players should be targeting, as he allows a lot of contact (13.2 K% in 2021) and home runs (2.1 HR/9 in 2021).
Giancarlo Stanton ($4,900) checks nearly all of the same boxes as Renfroe, as he has crushed lefties thorough his career (.417 wOBA, 1.004 OPS). Yusei Kikuchi is more talented pitcher than Wells, but he still allowed 1.6 HR/9 in 2021. Stanton has also been locked in at the plate early this season as well, recording three barrels and a 107.3 average exit velocity.
It just so happens that the primary pitchers to target on Tuesday's slate are southpaws. The Cardinals boast a number of players capable of hitting lefties hard, but Paul Goldschmidt ($5,500) posted a .444 wOBA and 1.063 OPD against them last season. Meanwhile, Daniel Lynch struggled mightily in his big-league debut in 2021. Based on his prospect pedigree, it's possible Lynch takes a step forward this year, but there's no reason to shy away at this point.
Value Plays
Gio Urshela ($3,400) has occupied the fourth or fifth spot in the lineup for Minnesota in every game that he's started to begin the season. While other key members of the Twins lineup have already been priced up (see Jorge Polanco ($5,000) and Luis Arraez ($3,900) as examples), Urshela's price continues to lag.
Bobby Witt ($2,300) is a near automatic cash game option until his price rises. He has a miserable stat line early on this season, yet he's averaging 7.3 DK points per game and his price has yet to rise above $2,400. He's hit second in the order every game this season, so plate appearance volume and the potential for counting stats both are on his side.
Brad Miller ($3,400) has served as the leadoff hitter in Texas against right-handed pitching. He's turned into a fairly extremely three-true outcomes player (39.7 K%, 11.9 BB%, 20 HR across 377 plate appearances in 2021), but hitting atop the order gives him expanded paths to production even when he doesn't go yard.
Flipping to the other side of the Texas-Colorado matchup, Connor Joe ($3,100) has been Colorado's leadoff hitter against lefties. Joe has a different approach at the plate as compared to Miller, but the same logic applies. If Joe reaches base, he'll have the heart of the order to drive him in, and his opportunities to produce will also be maximized from a volume perspective so long as he sticks in the leadoff spot.
Other Value Plays: Jeremy Pena ($2,200), Daulton Varsho ($3,400)
Stacks to Consider
Cardinals vs. Daniel Lynch: Dylan Carlson ($4,400), Paul Goldschmidt ($5,500) and Tyler O'Neill ($5,000).
The Cardinals boast a very strong lineup against lefties, let alone an unproven southpaw who has primarily struggled in his big-league outings to this point. Each of this trio posted a wOBA above .390 with the handedness in 2021 and an OPD over .900. Nolan Arenado ($5,100) and Yadier Molina ($3,800) are also good options, but putting together a five-player stack of quality St. Louis bats will be very costly.
Rockies vs. Martin Perez: Connor Joe ($3,100), Kris Bryant ($4,300), C.J. Cron ($4,300)
The Rockies are on the road for a series in Texas, but this isn't a misprint. Perez struck out only had only a 19 percent strikeout rate and allowed 1.5 HR/9 in 2021. That puts the Colorado lineup in a strong position to produce offensively Tuesday. For a game theory perspective, I like this stack because it isn't likely to come with a high roster rate and it isn't cost prohibitive.
Rangers vs. Chad Kuhl: Marcus Semien ($5,400), Corey Seager ($5,000), Adolis Garcia ($4,700), Nathaniel Lowe ($4,000)
I like both sides of the Texas-Colorado game from an offensive perspective. The new look top of the Rangers order has done damage and Chad Kuhl is also susceptible due to his proclivity to allow walks and home runs (12 BB% and 1.5 HR/9 in 2021). The Rangers are an expensive stack, but stacking this game offensively could be interesting and a relatively easy build from a price perspective.
Also consider: Atlanta vs. Patrick Corbin, Dodgers vs. Chris Archer. Both of these teams will be expensive, but they could fly under the radar after Atlanta flopped as a chalky stack Monday and the Dodgers didn't produce in line with expectations during the opening weekend at Coors Field.
