This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Thursday's 10-game slate is longer on stack options than solid pitching matchups but we can still find a low-cost play or two in order fit our preferred offensive plays into lineups.
Pitching Overview
No one will ever doubt the skillset of Charlie Morton ($11,300) but the nine percent walk rate he has tallied in 87.1 innings does make him a bit tough to use at this price. This is particularly true against the A's, who have notched a nine percent walk rate against righty pitching.
Jake Odorizzi's ($10,800) season seemingly gets better and better, as he now holds a sparkling 2.24 ERA to go along with an 85:24 K/BB ratio in 76.1 innings. The Royals are a bottom-half team against righties when it comes to wOBA and ISO. They also have tallied a 23 percent strikeout rate in 1,928 plate appearances.
Frankie Montas ($10,000) has used a fantastic slider and a strong groundball rate to post a 2.85 ERA in 82 innings but it's tough to roster any five-figure pitcher against the Rays, who hold a Top-10 wOBA and a .188 ISO against right-handed pitching.
It would be difficult to sell Madison Bumgarner ($9,200) as a rosterable commodity against a lot of teams at this price, as he has failed to reach 20 DraftKings points in six of his last seven starts. This is doubly true against the Dodgers, who carry an 11 percent walk rate and a .334 wOBA against southpaws.
The Blue Jays are an exploitable team against righties and lefties but Jose Suarez's ($8,500) lack of command and inability to keep the ball in the park is worrisome. Add in the fact that he has yet to throw 90 pitches in any of his three starts and what emerges is something of a fade despite the nice matchup.
Julio Urias ($8,000) should be avoided in his spot start against the Giants, as he hasn't thrown more than three innings in any of his last 10 appearances. Given that he is not stretched out, it is overwhelmingly likely that this will be a bullpen game for the Dodgers.
Can Zac Gallen ($7,300) continue the trend of low-cost Marlins pitchers who score well against the Cardinals? Gallen has taken Triple-A New Orleans by storm this season, notching a pristine 1.77 ERA and a 112:17 K/BB ratio in 91.1 innings. Meanwhile, the Cardinals just can't seem to right the ship, having notched the lowest wOBA in the league over the last calendar month (.282).
Key Values
Mike Trout ($5,800) appears to be going unconscious yet again, having scored no less than 23 DK points in three of his last four games. Clayton Richard has been hit hard by righties this year, as evidenced by the .627 slugging percentage he has surrendered in 15 innings.
Nick Pivetta has thrown the ball much better on the road but Anthony Rendon ($5,500) will still likely be a popular option Thursday due to the .309 ISO he has logged against right-handed pitching.
The combination of walks and homers served up to lefties by Erick Fedde should be music to the ears of Jay Bruce ($4,900) who has logged a .321 ISO against righty hurlers this year.
Glenn Sparkman has been handled by lefty hitters to the tune of a .553 slugging percentage against in 17.1 frames. This should be excellent news for Jorge Polanco ($4,900), who has logged a .266 ISO and a .414 wOBA against righties.
Tyler Chatwood is another pitcher who may not be stretched out for a typical start but his out of control walk rate (14 percent) makes him someone to target regardless. It's tough to go wrong with Michael Conforto ($4,800) in this instance, who has logged a .274 ISO to go along with a .400 wOBA against his opposite hand.
Tanner Roark's numbers may not seem so bad on the surface but a 6.38 xFIP against left-handed hitting tells us that we need to start looking at Roark as a stack target. We can start with Yasmani Grandal ($4,800) who has tallied a .258 ISO against righty pitchers in 159 at-bats.
Kyle Schwarber ($4,500) has been an inspiration for the Cubs this season, notching a .251 ISO against right-handed pitching. Walker Lockett has historically kept low strikeout rates and high home run totals in the minor leagues, which should offer some doubt as to whether he can hang with one of the game's best offenses.
I had to do a bit of a double take when I saw that Derek Dietrich's ($4,300) ISO against right-handers is now up to .410(!!!) in 144 at-bats. This will be plenty useful against Jimmy Nelson, who has allowed a .556 slugging percentage to lefty hitters in his first 3.2 innings this year.
Stacks
Brewers against Tanner Roark (Reds)
Yasmani Grandal (C - $4,800) Eric Thames (1B - $4,900) Christian Yelich (OF - $5,900)
This stack will cost you a pretty penny but it may be worth it due to what the advanced metrics tell us is about to happen to Roark with respect to lefty hitters. This is especially attractive when we consider that Roark must throw the ball in one of the best hitter's parks in the league.
Mets against Tyler Chatwood (Cubs)
Michael Conforto (OF - $4,800) Jeff McNeil (2B/OF - $4,500) Robinson Cano (2B - $3,400)
Of the two pitchers making emergency spot starts Thursday, Chatwood is by far the better choice of target. We can attack him with powerful lefties, including a bit of a bargain play in Cano, who has still logged a respectable .197 ISO against righty pitchers this year.
