This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Thursday's five-game evening slate is divided fairly evenly between rosterable pitchers and stack targets but there are a couple of low-cost options we can look at with strong matchups. On the hitting side, prospective owners can choose between a variety of pitchers facing tough offenses, including one that may not be such an obvious target.
Pitching Overview
Patrick Corbin ($10,300) got blown out in his last start against the Reds but prospective owners shouldn't let that stop them from riding with Corbin on the short slate, as the Padres hold a bottom-10 wOBA and a 27 percent strikeout rate against lefty pitching. Corbin's strikeout rate has dipped a bit since last season but he still carries a 27 percent rate to go along with his groundball profile.
Jose Berrios ($9,700) has combined pinpoint control with one of the most effective fastballs in the league according to RAA. This should be more than enough to get by the Indians, who have logged a bottom-10 wOBA against righty hurlers, as well as a bottom-10 RAA against the heater.
Trevor Bauer ($9,400) can still strike batters out with the best of them but sharp jumps in his walk and home run rates have contributed to a 3.77 ERA. Perhaps even more importantly for this contest, he has allowed a 5.60 ERA at home in 35.1 innings. None of these numbers portend good things for a matchup against the Twins, who lead the league in wOBA and ISO against right-handed pitchers.
Joey Lucchesi ($9,000) has been dominant at home in 2019, logging a 2.61 ERA in 41.1 innings. This puts him in play due to the smaller slate but he will have a tough task against the Nationals, who are a top-3 team against lefty pitchers according to wOBA.
J.A. Happ ($7,800) has had a bit of an uneven year in terms of statistics but has notched over 20 DraftKings points in each of his last two starts. The former Blue Jay heads into a matchup against his former team, who currently hold a bottom-5 wOBA against southpaws to go along with a 24 percent strikeout rate.
Ariel Jurado ($6,400) will likely be a popular low-cost play against the Orioles. Advanced metrics suggest Jurado won't hold on to his sparkling 2.43 ERA for long but the 23-year-old has shown a real ability to limit walks and get groundballs. There is no such thing as a comfortable pitching matchup in Arlington, but Baltimore makes for a nice opponent due to the .296 wOBA they have logged against right-handed pitching.
Key Values
Edwin Jackson's return to the major leagues hasn't been anything to write home about. This is particularly the case against right-handed hitters, who have logged an astronomical 1.053 slugging percentage in 7.1 innings. Meanwhile, Luke Voit ($4,900) has notched a .246 ISO against right-handers in 175 at-bats.
Jorge Polanco ($4,900) has been on fire against righty pitchers in 2019, as evidenced by the .296 ISO and .440 wOBA he has logged in 169 at-bats. It may seem odd to target a hitter against Bauer but the Indians ace has struggled enough to make Twins hitters nice potential scarcity plays.
Kole Calhoun ($4,400) has quietly shown good power this season. This is especially true against right-handers, against whom Calhoun has tallied a .248 ISO in 145 at-bats. Mike Fiers doesn't strike out many batters while giving up too many homers, which makes this a matchup to potentially hone in on.
Matt Chapman ($4,200) has dominated left-handed pitching this year, as evidenced by the .429 ISO he has logged in 49 at-bats. Tyler Skaggs has thrown the ball reasonably well against righties but has allowed six homers against his opposite hand in 39 innings.
Ronald Guzman ($4,100) is not without his flaws but the 24-year-old has shown fantastic power this season, notching a .300 ISO against right-handed pitchers in 70 at-bats. David Hess can be looked at as a major stack target Thursday due to the 4.79 xFIP he has kept against lefty hitters.
Stacks
Rangers against David Hess (Orioles)
Ronald Guzman (1B - $4,100) Asdrubal Cabrera (3B - $4,300) Elvis Andrus (SS - $4,700)
Speak of the devil. Hess can be targeted from both sides of the platoon, as he has actually been significantly more vulnerable against right-handed hitters. This is best exemplified by the .706 slugging percentage he has allowed in 34 innings.
Yankees vs Edwin Jackson (Blue Jays)
Luke Voit (1B - $4,900) DJ LeMahieu (2B/3B - $4,400) Gleyber Torres (2B/SS - $4,600)
Jackson will undoubtedly be the most popular stack target on the slate but it will be nearly impossible to fade when considering we can get many dangerous Yankee bats at reasonable prices. Jackson has logged an ERA north of 13.00 in his 16.1 innings this season.
