This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
An early five-game slate leaves us scrambling for cheap pitchers, which could entice players to take some interesting flyers in GPPs. Meanwhile, we have at least one fantastic environment that prospective owners can look to for offense.
Pitching Overview
Jose Berrios ($9,900) has produced strong walk and strikeout numbers this season but has struggled a bit when it comes to keeping the ball in the park. He will face an Astros offense that has logged the tenth highest ISO against righty hurlers in the league this season.
The same can be said for Noah Syndergaard ($9,400) who draws the Reds at home. Syndergaard's .376 BABIP is almost certainly due for regression and the Reds are a bottom-5 team against right-handed pitching according to wOBA.
Charlie Morton's ($9,000) 12 percent walk rate has been his worst enemy at times but he has been able to keep teams at bay with punchouts and a strong 52 percent groundball rate. While the Royals aren't a top-flight team when it comes to taking the free pass, the lack of control is worrisome. This may make Morton a high-priced fade on the short slate.
Matt Strahm ($8,100) appears to have gotten by so far this season with good control and an above-average changeup. This may be a problem when facing the Braves, who are a top-5 team against the offering according to RAA.
Jon Gray ($8,000) has seen a dip in his strikeout rate dovetail with an increase in his walk rate, which is never a good combination. His 53 percent groundball rate makes him worth a shot due to our limited options but there are reasons to be concerned as he heads into a matchup against the Brewers at Miller Park.
Mike Foltynewicz ($7,800) can be forgiven for a shaky first outing off the injured list, as he was thrown into the lion's den against the Rockies at Coors Field. When he's on his game, the 27-year-old can get his share of strikeouts and groundballs while limiting homers, but it is worth noting that he posted a 6.11 ERA in his 17.2 innings at Triple-A Gwinnett.
The Mets are no one's idea of an easy matchup but Tyler Mahle ($5,900) has showcased strong peripherals en route to a 3.47 xFIP in five starts. We have seen offense be hard to come by in this series, which could make Mahle a sneaky GPP punt.
Key Values
Ozzie Albies ($4,900) has had a field day with lefty pitchers to begin 2019, logging a .375 ISO in 32 at-bats. Meanwhile, Strahm has tallied a 4.47 xFIP against right-handed hitters in 22 innings.
Eric Thames ($4,900) has shown good power when facing right-handed hurlers this season and has been seeing more consistent playing time due to an injury to Christian Yelich. He needs to be considered against Jon Gray, who has allowed a .538 slugging percentage to left-handed hitters.
Danny Duffy showed signs of serious rust in his first start of 2019, turning in a 1:3 K/BB ratio over five innings. Tommy Pham ($4,900) has yet to hit for power against southpaws this year but has turned in a solid .337 wOBA (including a 23 percent walk rate) against his opposite hand in 31 plate appearances
After struggling to open the year, Nolan Arenado ($4,800) has hit his stride away from Coors Field, logging a .329 ISO in 79 at-bats. This should be perfect in a matchup against Freddy Peralta, who has been hammered to the tune of a .619 slugging percentage in 9.1 innings against righty hitters.
Jorge Polanco ($4,400) should be jumped on as a reasonably priced asset against Brad Peacock, who has kept an xFIP approaching 5.00 against left-handed hitters this season. For his part, Polanco has tallied a .326 ISO versus righty hurlers.
Eric Hosmer ($4,300) and his .233 ISO against righties could be a sneaky play against Foltynewicz as he looks to get his feet firmly underneath him in the starting rotation.
Stacks
Rockies vs. Freddy Peralta (Brewers)
Nolan Arenado (3B - $4,800) Raimel Tapia (OF – $4,000) David Dahl (OF – $4,200)
Prices for Colorado hitters are (relatively) depressed for this road matchup, which will help us fit in all we need to exploit Freddy Peralta and his troubles keeping the ball in the yard.
Brewers vs. Jon Gray (Rockies)
Eric Thames (1B - $4,900) Mike Moustakas (2B/3B - $4,500) Manny Pina (C -$3,300)
I realize I'm cheating a bit here but DFS players really should focus on the most hitter-friendly environment with only five games on the docket. Pina appears on this list as a cute money-saver in a decent situation, as Yasmani Grandal will likely take a seat in the early day game after catching the last three contests.
Rays vs. Danny Duffy (Royals)
Tommy Pham (OF - $4,900) Yandy Diaz (1B/3B - $4,700) Mike Zunino (C - $3,700)
It is worth taking a shot against Duffy until he proves to us that he has his sea legs. The 30-year-old didn't have a great deal of success when he was healthy in 2018, as evidenced by the 4.88 ERA he kept in 155 innings.
