This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Thursday, the pivot point of the MLB week, brings us nine games starting at 7:05 p.m. EDT or later. A quarter of the way through the season — give or take — it's time to get down to business and get to the daily fantasy recommendations.
Pitching
Tarik Skubal, DET vs. CLE ($9,700): As a Tigers fan, it delights me to be able to get hyped for a Skubal start, be it in real life or fantasy. Through eight starts he has a 2.22 ERA, and he's allowed zero earned runs five of the times he has taken the mound. Jose Ramirez is a fearsome hitter, but the lineup around him is why the Guardians are middling when it comes to scoring runs.
Martin Perez, TEX at OAK ($8,300): No, I do not believe in Perez's 1.64 ERA, and certainly not his 0.00 ERA on the road. What I do believe in, though, is Oakland's pitcher-friendly ballpark. Also, the fact the Athletics are 29th in team OPS, and it's quite the jump from them up to 28th.
Devin Smeltzer, MIN vs. KC ($7,600): Smeltzer has been called back up again. He's made two starts this season, and he's pitched 10.1 inning with an 1.74 ERA. On top of that, his last start was against this same Royals, and he went 5.1 innings and allowed only one run. The Royals are bottom eight in runs scored, so that was not surprising.
Top Targets
Although Xander Bogaerts ($5,200) isn't hitting with the same power he has recently – he had a .523 slugging percentage over the previous four seasons – he's still hitting with gusto. The righty has a .325 average and a .393 OBP. Lefty Dallas Keuchel had a 5.28 ERA last season, and this year his ERA has risen to 6.60.
How is Juan Soto ($4,700), a career .295 hitter, only hitting .236? That is bound to change, and he still has a .379 OBP with eight homers and four stolen bases. German Marquez has a 6.14 ERA, and don't blame that on Coors. Since 2020 he has a 4.60 ERA on the road.
Bargain Bats
Since 2020, Gio Urshela ($3,200) has a .764 OPS against lefties. He's also taken to his new home, as he has a .830 OPS in home games. On the flip side, the lefty Daniel Lynch has allowed righties to bat .292 against him in his career.
Spencer Torkelson ($2,300) debuted as one of the top hitting prospects in baseball. He hasn't lived up to that yet, but he's starting to. Over the last two weeks he has an .820 OPS. Aaron Civale has a 7.84 ERA, and since 2020 he's allowed righties to hit .294 against him.
Stacks to Consider
Dodgers vs. Humberto Castellanos ($7,200): Trea Turner ($6,100), Freddie Freeman ($5,900), Max Muncy ($5,600)
Castellanos has a 4.29 ERA, which would actually be the best ERA of his career. He's also started allowing home runs with gusto, having given up five homers over his last three starts. Arizona's ballpark tends to be beneficial to offenses as the weather gets warmer, and the Dodgers definitely have a lineup to take advantage of that.
Last year, Turner had 28 homers and 32 stolen bases. This season he has three of the former and 10 of the latter and has hit .289. Freeman hit over 30 home runs in each of his last two full seasons. Also, since 2020 he has slashed .326/.429/.568 against righties. Muncy's power has not been present at all, but that's not likely to continue. In MLB's last three full seasons he's hit at least 35 home runs, and he has a career .359 OBP as well.
Diamondbacks vs. Mitch White ($5,500): Daulton Varsho ($5,200), Ketel Marte ($4,700), Christian Walker ($4,600)
White will be making his second start of the season, and his first did not go well. He only made it 2.1 innings while giving up three runs. Even in the bullpen he hasn't pitch great, as he has a 6.17 ERA. The Diamondbacks do have a hitter-friendly ballpark, as I noted, and a lineup with enough interesting bats to stack.
You can use Varsho as your catcher, and for a catcher he has a strong bat. He's hit .268, slugged .490, and posted eight home runs and three stolen bases. Marte has put his slow star behind him. Over the last three weeks he has a 1.021 OPS. Walker has been all or nothing, but the "all" brings a lot of upside. Though he's only hitting .195, he's slugged .455 because he's hit 11 home runs.
Rockies vs. Patrick Corbin ($5,900): C.J. Cron ($6,100), Connor Joe ($5,300), Randal Grichuk ($4,200)
Why stack Rockies on the road? Because Corbin has a 6.60 ERA and has allowed righties to hit .304 against him since 2020. Sure, being away from Coors doesn't help, but Corbin has been brutal for a few seasons and that makes me cool with stacking Rockies on Thursday.
Cron has a .914 OPS since joining the Rockies, and while a lot of that can be chalked up to Coors, it can also be chalked up to how he hits lefties. Since 2020, he has a .967 OPS against southpaws. Joe is a strong leadoff hitter, as he's posted a .284 average and .375 OBP over the last two seasons. In that time he also has a .960 OPS against lefties. Grichuk finishes off this triumvirate of righties who feast on southpaws. Since 2020, his OPS against lefties is .831.
