This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
10 games are included in Sunday's main slate, which goes from 1:05 to 3:05 PM ET on get-away day.
Pitching Breakdown
Justin Verlander ($12,000) leads the way, and is going to force managers to make a decision. He's looked virtually automatic by going for at least 19.3 DKP in 10 straight, but faces a dangerous Yankees offense that owns the second-best wOBA in the league against righties at .345 while carrying a .200 ISO. Personally, I'd still use him for cash, but may take a look elsewhere for GPPs given the price.
Cole Hamels ($11,000) and Jacob deGrom ($10,500) face off against each other in Chicago. deGrom looks to be back to his usual self, having gone for at least 23.4 DKP in four straight. The strikeout upside isn't there against a Cubs side that whiffs only 22.9 percent of the time against righties, but that's offset by an innings potential as he's been left in to throw at least 112 pitches in three straight. I personally don't trust Hamels here, but there's no denying his current form. He's allowed one run over his last four starts, a span of 29 innings. He's struck out at least eight in three consecutive appearances. And while the Mets rank seventh against lefties with a .343 wOBA, they also fan 25.4 percent of the time.
Mike Soroka ($9,800) looks like he'll be a popular name after the top options. The matchup isn't great against a surging Nats offense and neither is his form by allowing three or more runs in three of four after one or less in every game before, but I also think Saturday's late game and team travel needs Sunday will have both sides swinging early and often - thereby playing into Soroka's 57.3 percent ground ball rate and .244 BABIP. The Nats seem to have no clue who will be on the hill with Joe Ross ($7,300) appearing in the eighth inning Saturday. They'll either piece things together out of their bullpen, or bring Patrick Corbin back on short rest after pitching Wednesday. Neither scenario seems ideal, but potentially beneficial to Soroka.
Brandon Woodruff ($7,900) and Jordan Yamamoto ($7,800) will likely catch some eyes further down the list. Woodruff has been worth 17.6 DKP or more in six of his last eight and faces a Reds' offense that has only managed a .304 wOBA against righties. The league - well, St. Louis - hasn't figured Yamamoto out yet, having posted 31.4 and 26.8 DKP in his first two starts. He'll face a slumping Phillies team that has lost six straight and eight of nine, scoring more than four runs just twice while carrying a .308 wOBA into the outing.
Finally, in the value department, we find Minnesota's Michael Pineda ($6,700). His 7.4 K/9 and 4.70 xFIP aren't exciting - nor is a matchup with a Royals' offense that fans only 22.5 percent - but Pineda always finds a way to work five or six innings, allow three runs or so, and keep his team in position to win. He'll get ample run support with his offense facing Homer Bailey ($6,400), and he's been worth between 13.9 DKP and 22.2 DKP seven times in his last 10 outings.
Key Chalk/Value
Runs haven't been as plentiful as expected in Globe LIfe Park over the weekend, but I still see little to no reason to stay away from bats that are going up against Adrian Sampson ($4,800) and Ivan Nova ($4,000). The former has allowed nine runs and five homers in his last eight frames while allowing a .371 wOBA to righties. James McCann ($4,600) comes in at a steep price for his position but his .370 wOBA plays well here, as does Tim Anderson's .361 number. Also, Eloy Jimenez ($4,600) and Jose Abreu ($4,500) bring better power potential. Nova remains generous to all, but particularly so to lefties by allowing a .390 wOBA. Willie Calhoun ($4,400) possesses the best LvR splits, while Nomar Mazara ($4,400) has hit in eight of 10 entering Saturday night. This game also has the docket's highest run total at 11.5.
Boston-Toronto follows closely with total of 10 runs. The Blue Jays send ground-ball specialist Marcus Stroman ($6,900, 58.0 percent GB rate) to the hill, and I think this limits the Red Sox power potential a bit. He's allowed 13 runs in his last 17.1 innings at Fenway, but only one long ball. Xander Bogaerts ($5,300) has recorded sound BvP numbers against Stroman (11-of-33), but I like the stable J.D. Martinez ($5,100) and Mookie Betts ($5,200) a bit more. The first two have hard-hit rates of 45.5 and 43.3 percent, and only a 12.9 percent or lower soft hit rate while not fanning more than 17.9 percent of the time. So we're looking for multiple hard-hit options and balls in play here. The Blue Jays side of this matchup isn't one to shy away from, and may offer some nice value. They've scored five runs or more in four straight and six of seven and get Rick Porcello ($8,600) and his 5.20 xFIP. Eric Sogard ($4,900) is rightfully priced as the top player, and is in a great groove right now, while Lourdes Gurriel ($4,700) has been a bit more feast-or-famine of late.
Yankees-Astros has a high 9.5 run total when considering Verlander is on the mound. Either that means we fade Verlander, or we expect the Astros to tee off against J.A. Happ ($7,500). I love Jose Altuve ($3,900) at his injury-reduced price, while Jake Marisnick ($4,000) is also in play with positive numbers aginst lefties.
Stacks
Twins vs. Homer Bailey (Royals)
Max Kepler (OF - $5,300), Jorge Polanco (SS - $4,700), Jason Castro (C - $3,700)
Bailey is giving up a .280 wOBA to lefties and a .336 wOBA to righties, but somehow sits with a 4.82 ERA thanks to two straight shutout appearances against Detroit and Seattle. The Twins are most definitely not those two offensively. Kepler has a .384 wOBA and .304 ISO against righties, while Polanco leads the team with a .417 wOBA and 163 wRC+. Castro represents an interesting way to round out a stack here with a .313 ISO, comes discounted, and should be in the lineup with Mitch Garver ($5,300) dealing with a minor heel injury. Willians Astudillo ($3,300) is the pivot if Castro doesn't start. The game boasts a 10.5 total, so Minnesota is due an offensive explosion if we think/hope Pineda is respectable.
Braves vs. Patrick Corbin/bullpen (Nationals)
Freddie Freeman (1B - 5,300), Ronald Acuna (OF - $4,800), Ozzie Albies (2B - $4,400)
The Braves have scored six or more runs in 11 of their last 13, the only two times they didn't coming against aces Jacob deGrom and Stephen Strasburg. The Nats haven't fully detailed their plan on the mound yet, but Patrick Corbin could be throwing on just four days after his last appearance Wednesday. Freeman anchors the hot offense, sporting a .415 wOBA, 156 wRC+ and .290 IS3. Acuna is no slouch either with a .421 wOBA, 161 wRC+ and .297 ISO, while Albies is a usual must-start against lefties - assuming Corbin starts. Albies remains an option against righties given the adjustments he's made in June, while Austin Riley ($5,300) looks a bit cost prohibitive given his swing and miss tendencies. The day game could also lend itself to some spot starts for Charlie Culberson ($3,700), Matt Joyce ($3,700) or Johan Camargo ($3,400), providing some salary relief.
Marlins vs. Enyel De Los Santos (Phillies)
Garrett Cooper (1B/OF - $4,800), Cesar Puello (OF - $4,000), Brian Anderson (3B/OF - $3,800)
Speaking of salary relief, how's this for an out-of-the-box stack for GPPs? Similar to the Nationals, Philadelphia will have to piece this game together by starting with De Los Santos, who enters with a 5.19 career ERA. The rest of the Phillies' bullpen isn't much better and you can guarantee these guys will come low-owned. Cooper actually belongs as at least a standalone option, likely hitting third and carrying a .408 wOBA and 159 wRC+. Anderson gets the nod here as the likely cleanup hitter, and his 114 wRC+ at least registers above average. Puello represents the wild card. He hasn't done much since joining the Marlins, but is hitting a robust .340 on the year. It's definitely a stack that could provide a goose egg, but there's reason for optimism given the Phillies' form and struggles on the hill.
