This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Ten games make up the main Sunday afternoon slate on DraftKings, but there really aren't a lot of great pitching options. Offense could reign supreme, leaving plenty of viable stacks to choose from. Let's dig into the matchups and see which players stand out.
Pitching Overview
Jack Flaherty ($10,300) has a bloated 5.25 ERA, but he's still the most expensive option Sunday. He really hasn't pitched that poorly, posting a 3.09 xFIP and 30.5 percent strikeout rate. He's actually been a victim of some bad luck, with hitters recording a .350 BABIP against him. It doesn't get much better than his matchup against the Reds, who have scored the sixth-fewest runs (99) in baseball.
The biggest name set to take the mound is Chris Sale ($10,000), who is looking to build on his 10-strikeout performance in his last start against the Tigers. He did allow two runs across just five innings, but the 10 strikeouts matched his total from his previous three starts combined. He's pricey, and this isn't the easiest of matchups against the Rays, so it might be worth paying the extra $300 to roster Flaherty based on his opponent.
With so few top-tier starters, a sound strategy might be to just deploy really cheap pitchers and load up on bats. If you do decide to take that route, taking a chance on Homer Bailey ($6,800) against the Angels might not be the worst idea. The Rays hit him hard in his last outing, but he's had a productive start to the season with a 3.98 xFIP and 26.7 percent strikeout rate. The Angels don't have the most imposing lineup outside of Mike Trout, so Bailey is at least worth considering.
Key Values/Chalk
The Twins have been one of the most potent lineups out of the gate, scoring the 10th-most runs (136) and hitting the fourth-most home runs (47) in the league. They certainly have a favorable chance to keep things rolling against Dylan Bundy and the Orioles on Sunday. After recording a 4.28 xFIP and 1.41 WHIP last year, he's been even worse this season with a 5.28 xFIP and 1.50 WHIP across his first five starts. He's also allowed seven home runs after giving up 41 long balls last season.
The Braves are off to a solid start in their own right, posting the sixth-highest OPS (.811). That could be a recipe for disaster for Sunday's opponent Tyler Anderson, who has a 2.33 WHIP across his first three starts. Anderson has a difficult time keeping hitters inside the ballpark since he's allowed at least 1.5 HR/9 in back-to-back seasons, so this could be an opportunity to cash in by deploying Braves.
Yes, Matt Harvey held the Yankees to two runs over six innings in his last start. However, he only had two strikeouts and has a measly 14.3 percent strikeout rate for the season. He's simply been awful with a 5.12 xFIP and a 1.58 WHIP, so he's a pitcher to attack for his matchup against the Royals.
Stacks
Twins vs. Dylan Bundy (Orioles)
Eddie Rosario (OF- $5,500), Nelson Cruz (OF- $5,200), Max Kepler (OF- $4,200)
The duo of Rosario and Cruz certainly don't come cheap, but it's hard to resist them based on Bundy's propensity to give up home runs. They are both off to tremendous starts in the power department, with Rosario recording a .400 ISO and Cruz .286. Cruz has been one of the most reliable sources of power for his career and hasn't finished with an ISO below .254 since 2013. Meanwhile, Bundy allowed a .399 wOBA to left-handed hitters last year, making Kepler a great cost-effective option with upside.
Braves vs. Tyler Anderson (Rockies)
Ronald Acuna Jr. (OF- $4,900), Ozzie Albies (2B - $4,700), Johan Camargo (3B/OF- $3,800)
With a left-hander on the mound for the Rockies, Acuna and Albies are two players to build around. They destroyed lefties last season, recording a 162 wRC+ and 141 wRC+, respectively. Camargo is also an intriguing cheap option if he's in the lineup considering he has a 141 wRC+ against lefties for his career.
Royals vs. Matt Harvey (Angels)
Whit Merrifield (2B/OF- $4,900), Alex Gordon (OF- $4,600), Hunter Dozier (1B/3B- $4,700)
Merrifield is about as reliable as it gets. He has at least one hit in all but four games this season, leaving him with a .358 wOBA. Gordon's .309 batting average would seem unsustainable since he hasn't hit above .270 since 2015, but his supporting numbers are encouraging. His BABIP is not unusually high at .305, and he's done a tremendous job of cutting down on his strikeouts, recording a 10.4 percent strikeout rate, which is over 11 percentage points lower than last season. Dozier brings the power for this stack with his .363 ISO. He's more than just about hitting home runs, too, with his 13.7 percent walk rate helping him record a .468 wOBA.
Tigers vs. Reynaldo Lopez (White Sox)
Jeimer Candelario (3B - $3,600), Nicholas Castellanos (OF- $4,300), Miguel Cabrera (1B - $3,900)
Since the Tigers have scored the fourth-fewest runs (90) in baseball, they might not seem like a team worth stacking. However, just about everyone is in play when Lopez is on the mound. He was scheduled to start Saturday, but that game was postponed due to weather. Don't let his 3.91 ERA last year fool you. He had a 5.22 xFIP and an unimpressive 18.9 percent strikeout rate to go along with it. He's been even worse this year with a 6.41 xFIP through his first five starts. Now hitting leadoff for the Tigers, Candelario has hit 13-for-43 (.302) with 10 runs scored across his last 11 games. Castellanos is off to a slow start, but he's homered in back-to-back games and is the most talented hitter in their lineup. Cabrera is a shell of the player that he once was, but he had a 10-game hitting streak that was snapped Thursday and is priced very cheap, so he's worth considering; he really shined in the Tigers' offensive outburst Friday, hitting 4-for-6 with his first homer.
