This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
The first Saturday in baseball brings an assortment of games, including six that will make up the main evening slate on DraftKings. With teams having already started their best pitchers Thursday and Friday, offense might be easier to come by this weekend. Let's dive into the matchups to see where advantages can be gained.
Pitching Overview
With no dominant force scheduled to take the mound, you could go in a variety of directions for this slate. Probably one of the highest owned options will be Kenta Maeda ($10,100), who has a favorable matchup against the Diamondbacks. Maeda has never had an xFIP above 3.89 during his three years in the majors and his 28.8 percent strikeout rate in 2018 was the highest mark of his career. He was also excellent at home last year with a 3.35 xFIP and a 29.1 percent strikeout rate.
After Maeda, Yu Darvish ($8,800) could be a popular pick against the Rangers. While injuries cut his season short last year, he's never finished with a K/9 lower than 10.1. He struggled with his control in spring training by allowing nine walks across 12 innings, but he still recorded 14 strikeouts. Eduardo Rodriguez ($9,000) checks in at a similar price and also possesses strikeout upside based on his 26.4 percent strikeout rate last year. If you're looking to go the mid-tier route, Darvish and Rodriguez are both viable options.
If you want some extreme savings at starting pitcher, it's best to take a chance on someone who at least has strikeout potential. The option that fits that criteria Saturday could be Brandon Woodruff ($7,800). Although he mostly worked out the bullpen last year, he posted a 26.7 percent strikeout rate and was stellar as a starter this spring by recording a 0.96 WHIP and 26 strikeouts across 17.2 innings. Facing the Cardinals is no easy task, but that might also keep his ownership down for those who want to take a chance on him in tournament play.
Key Values/Chalk
There are a bevy of excellent hitting options to choose from on this slate. The Rangers will be starting Edinson Volquez, who has a bloated 1.44 WHIP for his career. He also doesn't fool many batters, evident by his career 19.6 percent strikeout rate. Anthony Rizzo ($5,000), Kris Bryant ($4,900) and Javier Baez ($5,300) all figure to be highly owned. If you want to attack that game, Ben Zobrist ($4,000) checks in at a more reasonable price and should leadoff with a right-hander on the mound after recording a .358 wOBA against righties last year.
Mike Leake will be making his first start for the Mariners, and he's not exactly an imposing force considering his career 6.1 K/9. Even though they won't have the platoon advantage, Mookie Betts ($5,400) and J.D. Martinez ($5,200) should be highly owned. Two lefties that should also be popular are Andrew Benintendi ($4,800) and Rafael Devers ($3,800). Benintendi recorded a .376 wOBA against right-handers last year, and Devers finds himself in the favorable position in batting between Betts and Martinez.
The potent Dodgers' lineup also figures to be popular with Zack Godley starting for the Diamondbacks. Godley allowed way too many base runners last year, resulting in a 1.45 WHIP. His strikeout rate was also only 23.4 percent, which registered almost three percentage points lower than his mark in 2017.The Dodgers gave him plenty of problems last year, leaving him with a 1.50 WHIP over four starts. Max Muncy ($4,300), Justin Turner ($4,100) and Cody Bellinger ($4,700) would likely be the highest owned options.
Stacks
The Red Sox and Cubs stand out as the two best stacking opportunities. While Betts and Martinez will likely lead the charge, Devers and his cheap price tag is key if you want to stack against Leake. Lefties held Devers to a .208 wOBA last year, but he was much more productive with a .324 wOBA against righties. Another cost-effective option to consider in any Red Sox stack is Mitch Moreland ($3,900).
The cheap starting pitching options make it a little easier to stack Cubs, but they check in with the highest priced options at first base, third base and shortstop for the evening. Even Kyle Schwarber ($4,800) won't come cheap. Stacking them could still prove to be profitable, but adding Zobrist at his reduced price could be the key to making it work.
If you want to take a chance on a possibly lower owned stack in tournament play, going with the Brewers against Dakota Hudson might be the route to take. The impressive thing about Hudson between his tenure in the minors and his stint in the big leagues last year is that he rarely gives up home runs. However, he's not going to provide much in the way of strikeouts. He had an 18.4 percent strikeout rate at Triple-A last year - and that dropped to 16.1 percent in the majors. Aside from the top-third of their lineup, rolling with a stack of Travis Shaw ($4,200), Mike Moustakas ($4,500) and Jesus Aguilar ($4,700) could prove to be dangerous while also not eating up a significant portion of your budget.
