This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Day Three of the MLB season is upon us, and we've already seen some explosive offensive performances. The Blue Jays, Rangers and Astros all provided excellent stacks on Friday. There's likely to be more fireworks Saturday as we're approaching the back end of rotations. With all teams currently on the same or similar schedules, we won't see any aces take the mound. That will likely condense roster rate around three pitchers on the slate, so getting different somewhere – whether in stacks or taking a risk – will be key to taking down a big tournament.
Pitchers
This isn't a great slate for the pitchers, though the top option for cash games is Joe Musgrove ($9,400). He maintained an increased strikeout rate in 2021 without giving up significant portions of the rest of his skills profile. As for this year, Musgrove should be relatively fully stretched out after throwing 4.0 and 4.1 innings in his last two Cactus League starts. When comparing to the rest of the top pitchers on the slate, his primary draw is the matchup as the Diamondbacks have been no-hit by both Yu Darvish and Sean Manaea to begin the season.
Justin Verlander ($9,600) and Noah Syndergaard ($8,600) will square off in an intriguing matchup between past aces who lost all of 2021, or nearly in Syndergaard's case. Both looked back to form during the exhibition with Syndergaard striking out seven across five innings in his final warmup appearance. Meanwhile, Verlander threw a total of 13.2 innings and went five in his final tuneup. Given matchup and past skill, Verlander is the preferred option for cash games. Syndergaard would be a nice pivot off of him in tournament/GPP options. Paying down would also allow some upgrades to hitters.
The issue with the main slate Saturday is lack of viable options after the aforementioned trio. That makes the roster rate of Musgrove and Verlander in particular likely to be extremely high. In large-field tournaments, it'll be important to differentiate. That could be in team stacks as opposed starting pitcher, but there are a few interesting alternative arms. Kyle Wright ($7,100) has struggled to find consistent success in the majors largely due to a terrible 14.8 percent walk rate. Though spring training stats can be deceptive, he posted an 8:1 K:BB across 7.1 innings and he'll get a reasonable test at home against a Cincinnati lineup that doesn't boast a lot of imposing bats. Tony Gonsolin ($6,800) has shown the most skill among the cheaper arms in the past, but he'll be at Coors Field. That will deflate his roster rate, and in turn making him a reasonable option in large-field tournaments so long as you are willing to take on some risk.
Top Targets
Vladimir Gutierrez surrendered 1.6 HR/9 across 114 innings in his first taste of the majors in 2021. That isn't enough to definitively say he's homer prone, but it certainly alerts us to the fact that he's worth targeting until proven otherwise. Splitting that sample even further becomes more dangerous, though Gutierrez allowed 2.2 HR/9 to lefties in the same big-league sample. All that leads to Matt Olson ($5,200) being a strong play.
Recommending Juan Soto ($6,000) as a play on any slate doesn't require much justification. But if you're looking for one, Chris Bassitt is likely to be overrated to start the year after moving away from the pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum. Regardless of home park, Bassitt isn't a particularly strong strikeout pitcher (career-best 25 K% in 2021; career 21.5 K%), so there should be plenty of contact against him Saturday night.
Mookie Betts ($5,100) also represents a strong building block. He bats atop what projects to be the league's best lineup that's playing at Coors Field. Betts is also valued at a fairly significant discount compared to Soto, Shohei Ohtani ($5,900) and even Starling Marte ($5,400).
Bargain Bats
Cody Bellinger ($2,600) had a poor Opening Day given his 0-for-4 performance and was one of only two Dodger hitters that failed to record a hit. However, he did not strikeout, which is a reason for optimism after his K rate ballooned to 26.9 percent in 2021. As was noted with Betts, the Dodgers are at Coors for the weekend set. So if Bellinger continues to make contact, the hits are likely to come.
Jose Rojas ($2,800) isn't a household name, but he hit fifth in the Angels' lineup on Friday. That alone is enough to attract attention at his salary, and he is likely to get opportunity to drive in runs with the likes of Ohtani, Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and Jared Walsh ahead of him if he sticks in the starting nine.
Tyler Stephenson ($3,200) has batted fifth in each of the first two games of the season, which is particularly notable given he's a catcher. He provides an advantage from others at the position as the majority are buried at the bottom of their team's lineups. For those who are not, they are generally valued at a premium.
Given that a righty will be on the mound for Arizona, I don't expect Austin Nola ($3,100) to occupy the leadoff spot. But if that presumption turns out to be incorrect, he's an obvious value on the slate.
Stacks to Consider
Dodgers vs. German Marquez: Mookie Betts ($5,100), Freddie Freeman ($4,800), Trea Turner ($5,500)
It's getting repetitive at this point, but the Dodgers lineup – already tops in the league -- in Coors Field is a cheat code. However, the stack will likely be the most popular and also require significant sacrifices elsewhere in your lineup due to salary. Therefore, it may be worth getting creative and utilizing the bottom and selecting the 8-9 hitters with the top of the order. This will make your roster more unique and provide some savings. The good news is the bottom of the order includes Cody Bellinger ($2,600) and Gavin Lux ($2,800) – two players who would likely occupy the heart of the order for many other clubs.
Rockies vs. Tony Gonsolin: Charlie Blackmon ($4,100), Kris Bryant ($4,900), Brendan Rodgers ($3,900)
There seems to a narrative that the Rockies lineup isn't good due to the loss of Trevor Story. But that's not the case, particularly at the top of the order. Early on, this provides solid leverage on the rest of the field because: 1) it will drive down roster rates and 2) it will make Rockies hitters cheaper. The comparison in salary to roster the top three in each team's lineup is clear, as the Dodgers trio is $15,400 and the Rockies $12,900. That makes it easy to pivot off a Dodgers stack to the Rockies while also being able to pay up more at pitcher or another position.
Mets vs. Joan Adon: Brandon Nimmo ($4,100), Starling Marte ($5,400), Francisco Lindor ($4,400), Pete Alonso ($5,000)
This is also likely to be a very chalky stack due to the Mets' strong offensive start and Adon's inexperience having only pitched 23.1 innings above High-A. The value of Marte in particular appears inflated, while a player like Eduardo Escobar ($4,200) is significantly lower and likely to be rostered at a lower rate. While the stack's chance of success is relatively high, it's also one I'd be willing to fade based on salary and projected popularity.
Braves vs. Vladimir Gutierrez: Ozzie Albies ($5,00), Matt Olson ($5,200), Austin Riley ($4,700), Marcell Ozuna ($3,800)
It's viable to stack either side of this matchup, though Atlanta is both likely to project better and be more popular. Because I think Wright is among the better bottom-tier arms on the slate, I'd be inclined to lean towards stacking the offense behind him. Like the Dodgers, there's some appeal at the bottom of the Braves lineup with the likes of Dansby Swanson ($4,100) and Travis d'Arnaud ($3,700) both a way to save some salary and differentiate from other lineups with similar builds.
