DraftKings MLB: Monday-Wednesday Value Plays

DraftKings MLB: Monday-Wednesday Value Plays

This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.

All player prices are as of Monday, June 29. Players with no price listed only play Tuesday and Wednesday.

Pitchers

Jimmy Nelson, MIL (MON at PHI), $6600 – Monday night's slate does not have any pitchers that cost more than $8400 (C.J. Wilson), and the relatively expensive options mostly face tough matchups. You'll inevitably have a ton of salary to distribute among hitters, but with that being the case for everyone, many of the elite batters will have unusually high ownership rates. I'm thus looking to find a nice middle ground, not going too cheap on pitching but also not forcing things with any of the more-expensive options besides Wilson. It's hard to defend Nelson's mediocrity this season, but he's a decent strikeout pitcher facing a punchless lineup, and that makes him the best value on what should be a high-scoring night.

Danny Salazar, CLE (Tue. at TB) – Sporting a 30.4 percent strikeout rate this season and 28.4 percent mark for his career, Salazar brings ample upside to each outing, even as the long ball remains an issue. Given his elite strikeout numbers and third/fourth-tier price, the 25-year-old is almost always a strong option for GPPs. With the Rays ranking 24th in strikeout rate (21.3 percent) against right-handers and 16th in wRC+ (97), Salazar is also a good choice for cash games Tuesday night. The only drawback is his reverse-platoon splits, but that seems to have evened out a bit this season.

Jordan Zimmerman, WAS (Tue. at ATL) – I've mostly shied away from Zimmerman this season, as his 2014 gains in strikeout rate, contact rate and swinging-strike rate have not only vanished, but also gone quite a ways in the opposite direction. However, I've been perfectly willing to use him the last two outing, for a pair of favorable matchups with the Braves (sans Freddie Freeman). Zimmerman only had three strikeouts in the first start, yet he unsurprisingly held the punchless Atlanta lineup scoreless over eight innings. He may not have the same upside as Salazar or another strikeout artist, but Zimmerman is a good bet to put up 15-to-25 points for a reasonable price.

James Shields, SD (Wed. vs. SEA) – The Mariners lineup may not lack for name recognition, but that's about all it has going in its favor. Nelson Cruz finally calmed down (and then some) after a huge first two months, and Robinson Cano is still underperforming, albeit with some recent signs of life. Even if this group does ultimately pull its act together, the Mariners figure to be a whiff-happy team so long as they employ the likes of Cruz, Mark Trumbo, Mike Zunino, Brad Miller, Seth Smith and Austin Jackson. Unsurprisingly, Seattle ranks 27th against right-handers in strikeout rate (22.6 percent) and 26th in wRC+ (85). Shields may not maintain his potential career-best strikeout rate of 28 percent, but his massive gains in swinging-strike rate and contact rate suggest he should hold on to some of the unexpected late-career improvement. And, of course, Wednesday's game will be played at Petco Park, with the Mariners' over/under potentially south of 3.0.

Other options:C.J. Wilson, LAA (Mon vs. NYY), $8400; Joe Blanton, KC (Mon. at HOU), $4800; Kyle Hendricks, CHC (Tue. at NYM); Carlos Carrasco, CLE (Wed. at TB); Jon Lester, CHC (Wed. at NYM)

Batters

C Derek Norris, SD (vs. SEA) – The Padres aren't in action Monday night, but they'll return to the field Tuesday and Wednesday to face a pair of hittable lefties in Mike Montgomery and Roenis Elias. Norris is usually a strong play against all but the best of southpaws, even at Petco Park. He owns an .873 OPS against lefties this season, after posting an .860 mark through the first three years of his career from 2012 to 2014. For comparison, he has a .672 OPS against righties this year, following a .619 mark from 2012 to 2014. Norris also hasn't seemed to mind Petco thus far, posting slightly better numbers at home than on the road.

1B Joey Votto, CIN (vs. MIN), $4800 – Votto has been quiet over the last couple weeks, mostly providing the Reds with value through walks. That figures to change in the next few days, as the Reds will be facing three consecutive walk-averse right-handed pitchers at Great American Ballpark, with none of the three especially threatening. Votto couldn't ask for better circumstances to pad his home run total (14), and he should even be a strong option into the coming weekend.

2B Rougned Odor, TEX (at BAL), $3300 – Odor was destroying Triple-A pitching before his June 15 call-up, and he thus far hasn't let a move back to the majors slow him down. In 38 at-bats since rejoining the Rangers, he has a .395 batting average, two home runs, three stolen bases, two runs and nine RBI, complemented by a 4:3 K:BB ratio. Odor put up 24 DraftKings points Saturday and another 16 on Sunday, giving the Rangers no reason to move him from the top third of the lineup. He's still sitting out or batting lower in the lineup against lefty starters, but the Rangers will only face one (Wei-Yin Chen on Wed.) during the upcoming four-game series at Camden Yards.

3B Manny Machado, BAL (vs. TEX), $5100 – Machado owns a .364/.414/.617 slash line in June, despite starting the month with just three singles in his first 20 at-bats. He also has seven homers, four stolen bases, 21 RBI and 22 runs for the month, with a 12:9 K:BB ratio in 107 at-bats. It may just be an impressive hot streak, but with the 22-year-old's peripherals looking much improved from last season, it's also quite possible that he's taken the next step as a player. Already an elite defensive third baseman, Machado is now among the better hitters at his position, making him a likely MVP candidate in the coming years. With the Rangers headed to Camden Yards for a four-game series this week, Machado figures to carry his hot streak into the beginning of July.

3B/SS Xander Bogaerts, BOS (at TOR), $3600 – With just three home runs and four stolen bases in 73 games, Bogaerts isn't usually a good target for GPPs, unless he's part of a Red Sox stack. However, I'm willing to use him as a standalone player this week, as he's an above-average hitter for his position, and is now locked in to the No. 3 hole in Boston's lineup. Facing the homer-prone Toronto pitching staff at the hitter-friendly SkyDome, the 22-year-old should be in for a big week.

OF Joc Pederson, LAD (vs. ARI), $4400 – Pederson has cooled down a bit over the last few weeks, putting up just two home runs (but no shortage of strikeouts) since his five-game homer streak ended June 4. He's still been one of my favorite batters to target, as other players with comparable power typically cost around $5000. With the Dodgers starting the week against right-handers Allen Webster (Monday) and Rubby De La Rosa (Tuesday) in Arizona, Pederson will have a good shot to smack his 20th long ball of the season.

OF Christian Yelich, MIA (vs. SF) – Yelich has finally turned his season around, putting up a .286/.356/.407 slash line in June, thanks in part to six hits over his last two games. He doesn't have the power or speed that one typically looks for in a GPP option, but his price is always quite reasonable, and he's a very tough out for right-handed pitchers. Until the hot streak comes to an end, Yelich is a solid and affordable GPP choice against hittable righties.

Other options:C Matt Wieters, BAL (vs. TEX), $4300; C/1B Stephen Vogt, OAK (vs. COL), $4300; 1B David Ortiz, BOS (at TOR), $4200; 1B/OF Chris Parmelee, BAL (vs. TEX), $4300; 2B Jason Kipnis, CLE (at TB), $4700; 2B/3B Luis Valbuena, HOU (vs. KC), $4400; SS Jose Reyes, TOR (vs. BOS), $4700; OF Mike Trout, LAA (vs. NYY), $4900; OF Billy Hamilton, CIN (vs. MIN), $4600; OF Andrew McCutchen, PIT (at DET); OF Mookie Betts, BOS (at TOR), $4600; 1B/OF Brandon Moss, CLE (at TB), $4000

Lineup Stacks

Monday

Orioles vs. TEX's Wandy Rodriguez
Rangers at BAL's Bud Norris
Red Sox at TOR's R.A. Dickey
Reds vs. MIN's Mike Pelfrey
Rays vs. CLE's Cody Anderson
Astros vs. KC's Joe Blanton
Dodgers at ARI's Allen Webster

Tuesday

Orioles vs. TEX's Colby Lewis
Blue Jays vs. BOS's Eduardo Rodriguez
Red Sox at TOR's Marco Estrada
Pirates at DET's Justin Verlander
Astros vs. KC's Danny Duffy
Padres vs. SEA's Mike Montgomery

Wednesday Night

Orioles vs. TEX's Nick Martinez
Indians at TB's Alex Colome
Royals at HOU's Vincent Velasquez
Dodgers at ARI's Robbie Ray

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jerry Donabedian plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: jd0505, DraftKings: jd0505.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jerry Donabedian
Jerry was a 2018 finalist for the FSWA's Player Notes Writer of the Year and DFS Writer of the Year awards. A Baltimore native, Jerry roots for the Ravens and watches "The Wire" in his spare time.
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