This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Uncertainty clouds the tiebreaker slate Monday, but the fact that we are only dealing with two contests tells us that we need to pay up for premium players in premium spots. This means grabbing at least one high-priced hurler and looking for value when it presents itself in certain matchups.
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Pitcher
Walker Buehler, LAD vs. COL ($10,200): Both Buehler and opposing starter German Marquez have been fantastic of late but I'm giving the nod to the 24-year-old due to his matchup against a Colorado offense that ranks as a bottom 5 team on the road this season according to wOBA. Buehler's 28.6 percent strikeout rate should play well against the Rockies, who have struck out at a 24.2 percent clip away from the friendly confines of Coors Field.
Cheap GPP Consideration, Jose Quintana, CHC vs. MIL ($7,100): Quintana has had a bit more success on the road but enters the conversation as a cheap GPP play thanks to his strikeout rate, which stands at a robust 23.6 percent at Wrigley Field in 75.2 innings. The left-hander should gain an edge against the Brewers' offense thanks to his penchant for throwing grounders, as Milwaukee ranks as a top 5 team when it comes to ground ball rate in 2018.
GPP Fade, Freddy Peralta, MIL at CHC ($9,700): There is no official word on who the Brewers will start in game 163, but pricing tells us that DraftKings is anticipating that manager Craig Counsell will go with Peralta. The 22-year-old carries a tremendous strikeout rate (30 percent) but his 12.5 percent walk rate makes it hard to consider him an option when Buehler and Marquez can be had in the same range. This point is underlined by the fact that Peralta has allowed a .489 slugging percentage to left-handed batters this year.
Catcher
Yasmani Grandal, LAD vs. COL ($3,900): As good as Marquez was in the final two months of the season, he may still be prone to struggles against his opposite hand, as evidenced by the 1.25 HR/9 rate and 36 percent hard contact rate he has allowed in 93 innings. Grandal has shown formidable power against right-handed pitchers this season, tallying a .242 ISO in 331 at-bats.
First Base
Jesus Aguilar, MIL at CHC ($5,000): As I mentioned in the introduction, paying up at premium positions is even more important on such a limited slate and Aguilar is someone who can be relied upon to give prospective owners their money's worth. The 28-year-old finished the 162-game schedule having logged a .271 ISO and a .388 wOBA against left-handed pitchers in 129 at-bats. Quintana has had a bit of an issue keeping righty hitters in the ball park, as we can see from the 20 long balls he has allowed in 131.1 frames.
Second Base
Hernan Perez, MIL at CHC ($2,900): Everyday second baseman Travis Shaw is sporting miserable numbers against southpaws this season (.274 wOBA, .088 ISO) which could pave the way for Perez to pick up the start against Quintana. Perez has been sneakily effective against his opposite hand in 2018, logging a .202 ISO and .329 wOBA in 119 at-bats.
Third Base
Max Muncy, LAD vs. COL ($4,600): Muncy has been downright fantastic against right-handed hurlers this year, as we can see from the .329 ISO and .414 wOBA he has notched in 289 at-bats. It is also worth noting that Muncy carries a 25.9 RAA against the fastball, while Marquez's heater has returned negative value.
Shortstop
Chris Taylor, LAD vs. COL ($3,300): Taylor has certainly disappointed season-long fantasy owners after his breakout in 2017 but still owns a solid .188 ISO to go along with a .339 wOBA in 351 at-bats against righties. What makes Taylor a sneaky play here is his potential to swipe a base or two, as Marquez has allowed 10 stolen bases in his 191.1 innings.
Outfield
Lorenzo Cain, MIL at CHC ($4,300): Cain didn't show much raw power against either side of the platoon during the regulation schedule but was tremendously effective against lefties in general, logging a .430 wOBA in 139 at-bats. Cain should be able to find his way on base against Quintana, who has walked 56 right-handed batters in 131.1 innings.
Kyle Schwarber, CHC vs. MIL ($4,400): Peralta may be the favorite to take the mound Monday but another option would be Jhoulys Chacin, who has kept a 5.21 xFIP against left-handed hitters in 86.1 innings. Schwarber should be ready regardless of who takes the hill thanks to the .263 ISO he has kept against right-handed pitchers in 350 at-bats.
Ben Zobrist, CHC vs. MIL ($4,200): Zobrist is another hitter who hasn't shown much of a power stroke but he has been effective against righty hurlers, logging a .360 wOBA in 330 at-bats. He has also done good work against the fastball, registering a 15.2 RAA against the pitch.
