This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
DFS players have a tricky seven-game slate in front of them Monday, as stud pitchers have tough matchups, and there is no obvious low-cost play to speak of. It's not all bad news, however, as we have a couple of slam-dunk stack options, as well as mid-range hurlers who are worth the risk.
Pitching Overview
Lucas Giolito's ($11,900) path to a 2.74 ERA in 14 starts has been truly remarkable but it will be extremely difficult to pay up for him in this scenario, as the Red Sox hold a top-5 wOBA and the highest walk rate in the league (10.3 percent) against right-handed pitching.
Clayton Kershaw ($10,400) is another ace in a tough matchup against the D-Backs, who have logged the second-highest wOBA in the league (.360) to go along with a .232 ISO against southpaws. It should be noted that Kershaw has put up a sparkling 1.67 ERA in 27 frames this month but it's still difficult to justify the salary against one of the most powerful offenses in the league.
Surprisingly, Jon Gray's ($9,800) ERA is more than a full run higher on the road than it is at home (4.67). He also carries a 1.3 HR/9 rate in 54 innings. Those weaknesses should be mitigated against the Giants, however, who will come into the contest sporting a bottom-5 wOBA and ISO against righty hurlers.
Eduardo Rodriguez's ($8,700) 4.71 ERA is nothing to write home about but the left-hander has allowed just a .280 wOBA at home, having put up over 20 DraftKings points in four of his last five starts. He will look to keep that trend going against the White Sox, who have notched a bottom-10 wOBA and a 26 percent strikeout rate on the road.
Zack Greinke ($8,400) has thrown the ball well enough this year (2.91 ERA) to be worth a look at this price but he will face a Dodgers team that has logged the second highest wOBA (.346) and ISO (.213) in the league against right-handed pitching.
Quality low-cost options will be hard to find Monday but those in need of such an arm can try Brad Keller ($6,000) against the Indians. Keller allows far too many walks and needs to work on his run prevention but he has been able to limit homers and get groundballs consistently all year. This may be enough to consider him at Cleveland, a team that has tallied a bottom-10 wOBA against right-handers.
Key Values
It's easy to imagine DFS players paying up for Gleyber Torres ($5,300) thanks to the .278 ISO and .376 wOBA he has logged against right-handed pitching. Aaron Sanchez's season may have to get worse before it gets better, as he has logged an xFIP of close to 6.00 against righty hitters in 35 innings.
The Rockies may struggle on the road as a team but Nolan Arenado ($5,000) has had no such problems this season, as evidenced by the .266 ISO he has logged away from Coors Field. This makes him an intriguing target in the matchup against Drew Pomeranz, who has allowed a staggering .594 slugging percentage to righty hitters in 2019.
Hunter Dozier's ($4,900) .352 ISO in 145 at-bats against right-handers this year makes him a match made in heaven for Adam Plutko who has been tattooed by righty batters to the tune of a .655 slugging percentage in 14 innings.
Scott Kingery ($4,800) has crushed left-handed pitching in limited at-bats this season, logging a .293 ISO and a .445 wOBA. Meanwhile, Steven Matz has been unable to get his act together on the road, tallying a 6.21 ERA in 37.2 innings.
Jake Arrieta has thrown the ball well against righties this season but has really struggled against his opposite hand, allowing a .516 slugging percentage in 39.2 frames. Jeff McNeil ($4,700) has emerged as one of the breakout young hitters in the league this season, as evidenced by the .378 wOBA he has notched against right-handed pitchers.
Julio Teheran has thrown the ball reasonably well in 2019 but a sky-high walk rate (14 percent) against right-handed hitters has contributed to a 5.68 xFIP in 37.2 innings. Kyle Schwarber ($3,900) has hit for power against both sides of the platoon this year, resulting in a .235 ISO in 255 at-bats.
Stacks
Rockies against Drew Pomeranz (Giants)
Nolan Arenado (3B - $5,000) Chris Iannetta (C - $3,700) Ian Desmond (OF - $4,400)
It may seem like a fool's errand to stack Rockies on the road but we can find powerful bats and value plays with relative ease against Pomeranz, who holds a ghastly 7.09 ERA in 53.1 innings this year.
Royals against Adam Plutko (Indians)
Hunter Dozier (1B/3B - $4,900) Jorge Soler (OF - $4,900) Whit Merrifield (2B/OF - $5,400)
We have two hitters in this stack with ISOs over .300 against righty pitching, which should pay huge dividends given Plutko's struggles against same-handed hitters.
