This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Major League Baseball starts off its last full week of games before the All-Star break with 11 games on the schedule Monday, nine of which will make up the main slate on DraftKings. Let's break down the matchups and highlight some players to consider as you build your entries.
Pitchers
Joe Musgrove ($8,700) had a rare rough outing in his last start when he allowed five runs over four innings against the Reds. He was taken deep twice, which is rare considering he had allowed a total of three home runs over his previous eight outings. For the season, he still has an excellent 2.63 ERA and 3.42 WHIP to go along with a 30.0 percent strikeout rate, so he could bounce back in a matchup against the Nationals, who are sporting a depleted lineup with Kyle Schwarber (hamstring) on the IL.
As far as teams with a bad lineup to attack, it doesn't get any more appealing than facing the Pirates since they have the worst OPS in baseball. The pitcher would could exploit them Monday is Max Fried ($8,500), who is scheduled to start for the Braves. A couple of bad performances in April have skewed his overall numbers, but Fried has been locked in lately, posting a 2.61 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP across his last nine starts.
If you're looking to take a chance on a pitcher with a cheaper salary in tournament play, Kolby Allard ($7,900) might be worth considering. After a disastrous 2020 campaign, he's shown significant improvement with a 3.46 ERA and 3.65 FIP across 52 innings. The biggest change for him has been improved command, lowering his walk rate from 13.2 percent last season to 5.2 percent this year. He won't be facing the most imposing lineup, either, when he takes the mound against the Tigers, who rank inside the bottom-10 in baseball in OPS.
Top Targets
Ronald Acuna Jr. ($5,900) went deep again Sunday, giving him 23 home runs and a .319 ISO for the season. Not only has he shown tremendous power, but he also has 16 stolen bases. This could be a prime spot to deploy him in DFS for his matchup against Chase De Jong ($5,600), who has allowed 1.8 HR/9 across 83 career innings in the majors.
There was plenty of hype surrounding Nick Castellanos ($5,400) last season, but he flopped with a .329 wOBA. That number has jumped to .413 this season, thanks in some part to him lowering his strikeout rate from 28.5 percent to 20.9 percent. Add in his career .373 wOBA against left-handed pitchers and he's a prime target for when the Reds face Mike Minor ($7,600), who has a 6.44 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP across his last six starts.
Bargain Bats
A second-round pick in the 2017 Draft, Gavin Sheets ($2,600) hadn't played above Double-A prior to this season. He did finally make the jump to Triple-A and he didn't disappoint with a .362 wOBA across 41 games. Now a member of the big-league club, Sheets has three home runs and a .424 wOBA across six games. What's encouraging about him is that he never had a strikeout rate above 19.9 percent during any of his stops in the minors. He could be worth taking a chance on for his matchup with Bailey Ober ($6,400), who has allowed at least four runs in three of his six starts.
After a slow start to the season, Harold Ramirez ($2,400) has turned things around at the plate. Across the last 25 games, he's 27-for-86 (.314) with four home runs and five doubles. He has a .369 wOBA for the season against left-handed pitchers, so he might be worth taking a chance on at such a cheap salary for a matchup against Rich Hill ($9,100).
Stacks to Consider
Red Sox vs. Jose Suarez ($8,200), Angels: J.D. Martinez ($6,000), Xander Bogaerts ($5,500), Hunter Renfroe ($4,000)
Suarez has pitched well in relief this season, posting a 1.98 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. This will mark his first start, and it's a tough one against the loaded Red Sox lineup. Given that Suarez has a career 6.14 FIP and 1.61 WHIP, this is still a favorable matchup to exploit. Martinez is usually a top target whenever a lefty is on the mound given that he has a .403 wOBA and .280 ISO against southpaws for his career.
Padres vs. Jon Lester ($6,700), Nationals: Fernando Tatis Jr. ($6,100), Manny Machado ($5,400), Tommy Pham ($4,900)
Lester showed signs of breaking down last season, posting a 5.16 ERA and 5.14 FIP. He's pitched equally as poorly this season with a 5.34 ERA and 5.44 FIP. Since the start of 2020, he's allowed 22 home runs across 118.1 innings. Going back even further, he's on pace to have a WHIP of at least 1.50 for the second time in the last three seasons. This is a dangerous right-handed trio that could give him plenty of trouble. Pham has been one of the Padres' hottest hitters lately, going 26-for-77 (.338) with five home runs and six doubles over the last 21 games.
Cubs vs. Matt Moore ($6,000), Phillies: Kris Bryant ($4,800), Javier Baez ($4,600), Willson Contreras ($4,800)
After holding the Mets scoreless across five innings on June 25, Moore will make another start for the Phillies. Even with that strong outing, he has a 1.67 WHIP across his 10 total appearances, four of which were starts. An inability to keep hitters off base is nothing new for him given his career 1.41 WHIP. Bryant could really do damage in this game given that he has a career 164 wRC+ versus left-handed pitchers.
