This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
A short opening round has left us with just a two-game slate Monday. While it's never ideal to come up against a micro-slate like this, it's interesting to note that no pitcher is priced above $8,600, meaning all arms are reasonably in play. On the hitting side, we can look for value using a variety of tactics, including one I don't often turn to in my analysis.
Pitchers
Blake Snell, TB vs. NYY ($8,000): Snell hit another gear while pitching at Tropicana Field this year, logging just a 2.57 ERA with 32 strikeouts in 21 innings. The Yankees' high-powered offense didn't quite fire on all cylinders against southpaws in 2020, as they finished the shortened season with a bottom-10 offense against left-handers according to wOBA. Early indications are that Snell enjoys playing in the postseason, as he has allowed only one run in 11 career innings.
Chris Bassitt, OAK vs. HOU ($8,100): Much like Snell, Bassitt did tremendous work in his home ballpark this year. While Snell's numbers improved, Bassitt was practically untouchable, as we can see from the 0.72 ERA he logged in 37.1 frames. Houston touched the 31-year-old up a bit when they squared off at Minute Maid Park, but Bassitt made easy work of the offense in two starts at RingCentral Coliseum, allowing just one run in 14 frames.
Top Hitters
DJ LeMahieu, NYY at TB ($5,200): Just because I'm playing Snell doesn't mean I'm going to overlook a hitter like LeMahieu, who finished the 2020 season with a .432 wOBA against left-handed pitching in 40 at-bats. While it hasn't yet shown up in the playoffs, it's worth noting that LeMahieu closed out the year with a .308 ISO in the month of September, and Snell allowed seven homers to righty hitters in 36.1 frames overall.
Matt Olson, OAK vs. HOU ($4,400): Lance McCullers got trounced on the road in 2020, allowing a .559 slugging percentage and keeping a 7.33 ERA in 23.1 frames. We should also note that McCullers was tied for the highest groundball percentage in the league (60 percent) among pitchers who threw at least 50 innings. Olson slugged .512 against groundball pitchers in 41 at-bats during the regular season, while keeping a .242 ISO against righty pitchers generally.
Best Values
Robbie Grossman, OAK vs HOU ($3,000): Grossman remains buried in our player pool but had an astonishing amount of power against right-handed pitching in 2020 (.260 ISO) and will likely bat in the middle of the A's lineup. Prospective owners may be further surprised to learn that Grossman isn't just empty isolated power, as he registered a 7.7 RAA against the fastball in his 166 at-bats.
Ji-Man Choi, TB vs. NYY ($3,000): In Choi, we find another remarkably cheap bat who is likely to have his share of RBI opportunities batting in the middle of the lineup. Choi missed the final three weeks of the season due to a hamstring injury, but still kept a respectable .330 wOBA and 38 percent hard contact rate against righty pitching. Cole may be a terror against both sides of the platoon, but the fact remains that he has trouble keeping the ball in the yard against lefty bats, as evidenced by the nine long balls he allowed to his opposite hand in just 30 innings. While I'm not a huge fan of batter/pitcher splits in general, it's tough to ignore that Choi has logged eight hits (including three homers) in 13 at-bats against Cole in his career.
Stacks to Consider
Athletics against Lance McCullers: Tommy La Stella ($4,800) Matt Olson ($4,400) Robbie Grossman ($3,100)
The stars seemed to have aligned to give the A's a great matchup as they enter the ALCS, as they will face one of the top groundball pitchers in the league having notched a 40 percent flyball rate as an offense. McCullers not only struggled against hitters of all types on the road but allowed a 45 percent hard contact rate against lefty batters in 29 frames.
Yankees against Blake Snell: DJ LeMahieu ($5,200) Clint Frazier ($4,500) Gary Sanchez ($4,400)
To reiterate, I think this is a strong matchup for Snell, but individual Yankees have been so strong against lefty pitchers overall that it wouldn't be out of the question for players to look for a few righty mashers to fill out their roster. This includes a hitter like Frazier, who comes in at a reasonable price despite notching a .242 ISO against southpaws during the regular season.
