This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Only the London-bound Yankees and Red Sox aren't included in Friday's slate which gets underway at the standard 7:05 p.m. ET. By in large, weather looks clear.
Pitching Breakdown
Jacob deGrom ($11,200) is the top of three five-digit arms Friday, and there appears little reason to fade him for cash games. Sure, the Braves fan only 22.0 percent of the time and are a top-six offense against righties, but deGrom struck out 10 against Atlanta two starts ago, shutting them out until two late homers ruined his complete-game shutout bid. He's been worth 23.4 DraftKings points (DKP) or more in eight of his last 10.
Jose Berrios ($10,800) and Lance Lynn ($10,100) follow. Berrios has been inconsistent with his strikeouts, and faces a White Sox team he fanned just four against earlier this year. But Chicago fans 25.7 percent of the time and has just a 91 wRC+ against righties. Berrios should receive plenty of run support with the Twins offense getting to tee off on Carson Fulmer ($5,300), making a win highly likely. Lynn isn't a name normally associated with this price, as he's been under 7k earlier in the year. But the 17.6 DKP he posted in his last start was a nine-game low, showing how great his form has been. The matchup isn't perfect, as the Rays rank 12th with a .328 wOBA against righties and fan only 23.2 percent of the time, which may have some overlooking Lynn. I'd expect lower ownership, but Lynn comes at a discount, and his current streak is as good as it gets.
Four more arms check in at 9k or higher, led by a resurgent Cole Hamels ($9,900), who has averaged 26.7 DKP over his last five outings. The Reds don't hit lefties well, owning just a .309 wOBA, but they also don't swing and miss, fanning just 20.9 percent of the time. The upside, for me, is too limited. Mike Clevinger ($9,600) gets an always targetable matchup against the Orioles and their 81 wRC+ against righties. They fan only 23.1 percent of the time, however, and I think Clevinger is going to be a trendy choice based on the name of his opponent. Clevinger wasn't sharp in his return from injury and then missed his last start due to a sprained ankle. There's no indication he'll be limited here, but with only 4.2 MLB innings since April 7, the inning and strikeout upside seems limited. He's a fade for me. Mike Soroka for $9,300 isn't great, though he did look solid before leaving after being hit by a pitch in his last start. I like the potential for him to duel with deGrom here, though the Mets strike out only 22.3 percent of the time against righties, suggesting a low ceiling. Merrill Kelly ($9,100) rounds out this group in a very exploitable matchup against San Francisco, who ranks 28th with a .282 wOBA against righties. The 23.0 percent strikeout rate isn't what you'd want, but Kelly fanned nine Giants in his last start, earning 23.9 DKP in the process. I like his chances to repeat that performance.
Hyun-Jin Ryu ($8,900) is heavily discounted given the matchup in Coors Field, where he's historically struggled. Ryu has allowed 17 runs and 20 hits in his last three starts in Denver, allowing four long balls while lasting only 10.1 innings. His form is terrific, so I wouldn't fault a GPP flier, no more than that.
Looking at some cheaper second options, Anibal Sanchez ($7,400) stands out. Though not known as a strikeout guy, he has fanned six or more in three of his last five and gets a Tigers offense that ranks second with a 26.2 percent strikeout rate and paltry .282 wOBA and 73 wRC+. He's been worth at least 13.3 DKP or more in five straight. I likely don't have the stomach for this, but Michael Wacha ($5,900) has been better of late, going for 10.1 DKP or more in three of his last four starts. The Padres have blow up potential but also lead the league with a 26.7 percent strikeout rate, adding a meager .308 wOBA and 91 wRC+. The price here is so low, you only need 12 DKP for 2x return and can use the savings on a top arm or a loaded offense.
Key Value/Chalk
Coors Field is the obvious chalk here. Colorado gets the previously mentioned Ryu, and despite his season-long success, we know how well the Rockies perform at home against lefties. BvP believers will be all over Nolan Arenado ($5,100), who is 12-of-21 in his career against Ryu, where three doubles and three homers have left him with a 1.752 OPS against him. Charlie Blackmon ($5,700) and Ian Desmond ($4,800) also have favorable numbers against Ryu and positive splits vs. southpaws.
The opposite dugout is well worth featuring as well against Rockies' starter Antonio Senzatela ($4,600), who has a 6.21 home ERA, where he allows a .403 wOBA and .955 OPS to lefties. Cody Bellinger ($6,000) may be priced out of high ownership, leaving a less than consistent Joc Pederson ($5,600) as the obvious pivot. Max Muncy ($5,600) is a fair option, while Matt Beaty ($4,200) looks like a popular bargain choice.
Milwaukee bats also figure to be popular against Chris Archer ($7,100), who has an 8.41 road ERA, where he's allowing a .404 wOBA to lefties and .403 wOBA to righties. A stack of Christian Yelich ($5,900), Mike Moustakas ($4,900) and Yasmani Grandal ($4,900) isn't unreasonable price-wise, and all have at least a .380 wOBA and .266 ISO against righties. Newly recalled Keston Hiura ($4,400) is also a great choice.
Light-hitting Toronto and Kansas City square off in a game with a total of 10 runs and may offer some value with lower-owned bats capable of erupting against opposing pitchers Sean Reid-Foley ($8,300) and Danny Duffy ($7,200). The Blue Jays' Lourdes Gurriel ($5,200) isn't cheap but rakes against lefties to the tune of a .455 wOBA, 190 wRC+ and .410 ISO. Eric Sogard ($4,700) is the only other Toronto bat that is above average against lefties, however. The Royals side appears to offer a bit more cost savings, with Hunter Dozier ($4,300) having the best stats against righties (.421 wOBA, 166 wRC+, .325 ISO) and Jorge Soler ($3,800) bringing a sound .294 ISO to the table.
Stacks
Pirates vs. Jhoulys Chacin (Brewers)
Josh Bell (1B - $5,500), Bryan Reynolds (OF - $4,800), Corey Dickerson (OF - $4,600)
Chacin has allowed 14 runs in his last three starts, none of which have lasted longer than 4.2 frames. His shortest outing in that stretch was a 2.2-inning showing against the Pirates, where he allowed six hits and seven runs. He's carrying a 6.47 xFIP against lefties and walks more than he strikes out, so we'll target three opposite-handed bats here. Bell is the obvious choice, sporting a .421 wOBA and .329 ISO against righties. Reynolds has a .313 wOBA and 160 wRC+, and Dickerson goes .390/144.
Twins vs. Carson Fulmer/bullpen (White Sox)
Mitch Garver (C - $5,700), Nelson Cruz (OF - $4,900), Jorge Polanco (SS - $4,600)
I'm not putting much stock in Fulmer's lefty/righty splits, as I dont expect him to last long enough for it to matter. Fulmer will open, but the Sox figure to use a committee approach to nine innings, and their bullpen has a collective 4.41 ERA. You can grab any number of pieces to this offense, including Miguel Sano ($4,600, .270 ISO) or Jason Castro ($3,800, .288 ISO) if in the lineup. Polanco is cheaper than he should be with a team-high .407 wOBA against righties, adding a .264 ISO and 156 wRC+. Garver's .333 ISO makes his salary someone more tolerable, suggesting immense upside from a position void of it, while Cruz's .359 wOBA and .225 ISO brings a stable middle-of-the-order option.
Nationals vs. Daniel Norris (Tigers)
Brian Dozier (2B - $3,400), Anthony Rendon (3B - $5,200), Juan Soto (OF - $5,100)
This game has a 10.5 posted run total, and if we're a slight believer in Sanchez for Washington, that suggests the Nats are going to tee off on Norris, not a far-fetched idea when seven folks carry a wOBA of .381 or better against lefties. That's surprisingly led by Brian Dozier's .447 number, adding a .333 ISO and 177 wRC+. His cost (or lack thereof) and position make him a terrific value here even if he's usually a bit volatile. Rendon helps offset that, as his .440 wOBA, 173 wRC+ and .344 ISO against lefties is in line with his season-long numbers. There are a lot of avenues you can go with the third bat, and both Nats' catchers in Kurt Suzuki ($4,300) and Yan Gomes ($2,900) are in play depending on who starts, particularly Gomes at that reduced price. Soto is my choice if cost isn't a factor, as he's been hot in June, paired with a .391 wOBA and .242 ISO against lefties. Victor Robles ($4,100) is a better value selection.
